Top (left) Alex Vatanka; (right) Nilofar Sakhi; Bottom (left) Fatemeh Aman; and (right) Andrew Watkins

 

MEI Panel Spotlights Tensions between Iran and
Afghanistan over Water Issues
By Elaine Pasquini

Washington: For over a hundred years, Iran and Afghanistan have had disputes over sharing water from the Helmand River, which originates in the Hindu Kush and is a vital source of water for both countries. These tensions have increased as climate change, droughts and improper water management have soared. In May of this year, clashes broke out after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi accused the Taliban government of restricting access for Iranians to water from the 625-mile-long river.

On June 16, the Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted a panel of experts to discuss the situation, which has de-escalated but remains volatile for the foreseeable future.

While both sides backed down when it seemed a military conflict was imminent, the deep-rooted obstacles remain, including non-recognition of the Taliban by Iran, disagreements over water at the border and the Taliban’s anti-Iran and anti-Shi’i stance.

“In this Iran-Taliban relationship…there are a lot of different factors,” said moderator Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at MEI. “You have an Iranian state that has not paid sufficient attention…to the issues of Afghanistan and important neighbors of Iran that have been occupied elsewhere. Iran has had disastrous water management; they have food security paranoia.”

In addition, he said, experts have been warning for years that producing crops that require so much water is not suitable for a region like Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province. Likewise in Afghanistan there is a serious water scarcity turning farms into dry land also and causing a shortage of drinking water.

According to Nilofar Sakhi, a lecturer at George Washington University and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, from an economic point of view, Iran wants Afghanistan to be both a “connector of economic expansion in Central Asia,” and “a market for its own products.”

The Taliban recognize that Iran is a trading partner with Afghanistan right now and with their severe economic crisis they need money and will try to avoid any war with Iran, she said. On the other hand, they also want to show the world that they are becoming politically active in the region and that they can be trusted. The Taliban is trying to make the regional countries, including Iran, their friends to show to the world that they have good relations with their neighbors and because they are seeking recognition and money from the international community and their regional neighbors. “Therefore, they will pursue the path of collaboration and engagement with all the countries in the region,” she added.

One cause of strife between the two countries, Sakhi noted, is border issues caused by bad governance on both sides, especially in terms of the recent water crisis. In addition, neither country has adequate environmental protection or water management policies.

As to whether the Islamic world might unite behind an initiative to perhaps make the Taliban change their stance on issues like girls’ education or mediate, when necessary, between Iran and the Taliban over water, she said that many Islamic countries came together but their effort failed.

Issues such as border crises and security spillover from Afghanistan were always on the agenda of events held by Islamic countries, Sakhi explained, but there was never a concrete plan of action to address water or border security issues.

“Right now, it’s all about ad hoc engagement, humanitarian assistance, but they are not able to frame well their policy of engagement with Afghanistan,” she lamented.

Fatemeh Aman, an MEI nonresident senior fellow, pointed out that Iran and the Taliban have never liked or trusted each other. They tolerated and used each other against the United States, she stated.

During peace negotiations in 2020 between the US, the Taliban and Afghan government officials, Iran held separate talks in Tehran with the Taliban delegation and Afghan officials, according to Aman. “Their best-case scenario at that time was a government that included the Taliban, but that government would also include some Iran-leaning factions,” she added. “That didn’t happen and to everyone’s surprise the Taliban took over in Afghanistan and then the Iranians had the heavy task of selling it to the public.” Eventually Iran handed over the Afghan embassy in Tehran to the Taliban.

The situation at the border has calmed down, she said, but with the “disastrous water management in Iran and the impact of climate change, things can happen very quickly and can lead to more serious events.”

Andrew Watkins, senior expert on Afghanistan at the United States Institute of Peace, argued that climate change is the real factor with the water situation, more than the behavior of Iran or the Taliban, “whatever their flaws in water management and political intrigue.”

With respect to economics, Watkins pointed out that since Afghanistan is land-locked, the Taliban – as every Afghan government has been – is dependent on direct foreign support economically, politically, and even with respect to completely funding its own state.

In many ways, trade has been smooth with Iran, although there has not been a vast increase in trade between the two countries. In contrast, trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan has increased. According to World Bank data over the last two years, the Taliban are sending their most valuable exports – such as coal – to Pakistan, and also “importing as much as they can from Pakistan,” he said. “That’s their true indispensable trading partner, at least for now.”

It is unlikely the region will be united in strong collective action against the Taliban, Watkins concluded. “Two years after the US began to withdraw from Afghanistan, what binds [the region] together is the hope to make sure that the Taliban doesn’t grow stronger relations with the United States than it does with them.”    

(Elaine Pasquini is a freelance journalist. Her reports appear in the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs and Nuze.Ink.)