Laura Linderman, Svante Cornell, and Brenda Shaffer
Central Asia: A Pivotal Region as the World Moves Toward Cleaner Energy
By Elaine Pasquini
Washington: The Times of Central Asia and the Central Asia Caucasus Institute (CACI) at the American Foreign Policy Council co-hosted a Burgut Expert Talk on December 16, 2024, titled “Central Asia in the Energy Transition.”
Laura Linderman, director of programs at CACI, moderated the one-hour virtual discussion between Svante Cornell, director of CACI, and Brenda Shaffer, a faculty member at the US Naval Postgraduate School, a senior advisor for energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center.
With the global energy landscape in a state of flux, the United States, Europe, and the United Nations are championing a move from fossil fuels to renewables. This transition, however, is proving to be complex and multifaceted, Linderman said in opening comments. “In this dynamic environment, Central Asia holds a pivotal position. The region’s abundant resources – oil, natural gas, uranium, and even the potential for green hydrogen – are poised to be critical for both Europe and global energy security in the years ahead. This is especially relevant as Europe grapples with the need to diversify its energy sources.”
Cornell stressed the importance of nuclear power with respect to Europe and Central Asia, pointing out that in recent years Central Asia has emerged as “an absolutely central producer of uranium, and this obviously is very important to the general discussion of Europe’s and the world’s energy situation.”
Even in environmental circles, Cornell noted, there’s a growing understanding that “without nuclear the entire edifice of what they are trying to do in terms of reducing dependence on or reducing fossil fuels is completely unrealistic.”
Since the European Union imports 97 percent of its uranium, France has turned to Central Asia as a source of this much sought-after radioactive metal, he related. In this effort, French President Emmanuel Macron paid visits to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Mongolia last year. Orano, France’s uranium producer, owns a majority stake in one of the biggest uranium mines in Kazakhstan.
And in November last year, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan made a reciprocal visit to Paris. In an article published in the French press, he indicated that France would be involved in one way or another in the construction of his country’s first nuclear power plant.
Kazakhstan produces over 40 percent of the world’s natural uranium, while Uzbekistan produces around six percent. “That means you basically have half of the world’s uranium being produced in Central Asia,” Cornell pointed out. In addition, Mongolia has largely untapped great resources of uranium.
“I think that now as we look towards the future the issue of how the Central Asian uranium is extracted and how it’s being brought to market is going to be equally important and the political commitment and political presence of Western powers is immensely helpful to Central Asians in order to build their economic independence,” he stated. In the past two years, there has been a significant increase in the successful attempts to export natural uranium through the Caspian corridor across Azerbaijan, he added.
It should also be noted, Cornell said, that Kazakhstan has had significant experience in the nuclear field. “This is not just a country that happens to have a lot of uranium mines, this is a country that…has a developed nuclear industry and research as well in the nuclear field.”
Shaffer argued that, although everyone talks of an energy transition as being a fact, “we are really under an illusion of energy transition” because nothing has emerged that shows us signs of “an energy transition or imminent energy transition.”
Despite Kazakhstan’s abundance of natural resources, Shaffer pointed out that 30 percent of households in the country still use solid fuels at home. All over the world indoor pollution is one of the biggest threats to health, particularly to women and children who burn lump coal, wood, or dung for home heating, which contributes to a lower life expectancy and respiratory diseases, she said.
Even in places where there is gas or electricity available, Kazakhs still burn coal or animal dung because it’s cheaper. “We need a plan that not only provides clean energy like natural gas or electricity…but also makes it affordable for all of the populations of Central Asia,” she emphasized. “This is a developing world problem and even though the countries of Central Asia are quite well developed they still have this legacy challenge.”
In 2020, the World Bank, European Development Banks and the G7 eliminated most public finance for fossil fuels. “It was a feel-good moment but in the Western countries they don’t need public financing; they have private capital available to provide whatever electricity is needed,” she said. “This only affects the world’s poorest. I think there is a huge disconnect between the World Bank, the G7 and especially Europe for people. If you don’t give them public finance for natural gas power or electricity…you’re condemning them to indoor pollution. The climate camp always has kind of the moral authority…thinking about the future, thinking green, but I think it is quite immoral to leave people with indoor pollution.”
Last year, President Joe Biden canceled new permits for liquid natural gas (LNG) exports for countries that don’t have favored nation trade agreements with the US, leaving Qatar and Oman to pick up the slack to supply LNG to countries in Asia.
“I assume on Day One the Trump administration will cancel this prohibition,” Shaffer predicted, “but I think the damage has already been done…to the US.”
(Elaine Pasquini is a freelance journalist. Her reports appear in the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs and Nuze.Ink.)
