Efgan Nifti
Ambassador Richard Hoagland
Luke Coffey, Daniel Runde, and Dr Eric Rudenshiold
New Strategy for Central Asia and the Caucasus Presented at Caspian Policy Center
By Elaine Pasquini
Photos by Phil Pasquini
Washington: A recently published policy paper titled A Trans-Caspian Trajectory: A New US Strategy for Central Asia and the Caucasus was the topic of a panel discussion on January 15, 2025, at the Caspian Policy Center (CPC). Often thought of as a “flyover country” by those unfamiliar with the resource-rich Central Asia and Caucasus region, its ancient history and looming importance in today’s world, these eight countries are the subject of the document authored by Dr Eric Rudenshiold which explores how Washington can develop a new strategy for the region.
In his introduction, CPC President Efgan Nifti noted that more interest is now being shown to Central Asia and the Caucasus than in past years. This interest is increasing, resulting in summits, engagements, and travels to the region from different countries and heads of state, he pointed out. All of this is “good for Central Asia. These are all positive developments.”
Stressing that “Central Asia and the Caucasus are not two separate islands,” he contended that they are interconnected to each other through their affairs and “we should be thinking of a more comprehensive approach towards the region.”
Along with the increased connectivity of the Middle Corridor network of road, rail, and sea lanes which has become an important alternative to traditional routes of transportation, there are increased investments in green economy and renewable energy in the region, Nifti said.
Rudenshiold, a senior fellow at the CPC and former director of the National Security Council for Central Asia under presidents Donald J. Trump and Joe Biden, pointed out to the audience that Donald Trump, who is beginning his second term as president of the United States, is “no stranger to Central Asia.” As the 45th president of the United States, he hosted the presidents of both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan at the White House.
But Central Asia today looks quite different than it did four years ago. “What we see today is that landlocked Central Asia has begun to break out of its infrastructure constraints and its heirloom partnerships,” he said. “It is now reaching across the Caspian to work with Azerbaijan and Georgia, creating a rapidly expanding…trade corridor to the West.”
While Russia maintains an influence in the region, Moscow is playing less of a dominant role in the region’s economies, security, and political spheres as the Trans-Caspian countries have sought alternative partners to the almost exclusive arrangements they once shared with Russia. China, also, has increased engagement and investment in infrastructure across this region as it seeks to develop more rapid access to European markets, as well as to secure access to the region’s natural resources.
The Trans-Caspian region is becoming a vital geopolitical and economic crossroads important to US interests, and policymakers need to recognize that the Caucasus and Central Asian countries will do business with their neighbors while still working to access global markets, he said.
Most importantly, the US Congress should repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment to the Trade Act of 1974 which was meant to deny normal trade relations with countries that restricted freedom of emigration, Rudenshiold said. Repeal of this amendment would “pave the way for the president to extend permanent normal trade relations with the countries of the region.”
Significant changes in the geopolitical landscape in the region offer the incoming Trump administration “unprecedented opportunities for collaboration with like-minded partners from Central Asia and the Caucasus who are seeking alternatives to the influence of neighboring Russia and China,” he stated.
Moderator Richard Hoagland, former ambassador to Tajikistan and Kazakhstan and acting ambassador to Turkmenistan and Pakistan, stated that Washington has had an “unwavering policy to support the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of each of these independent nations,” since the break-up of the former Soviet Union in 1991. “What Washington has always done, and continues to do, is conduct full-scale diplomatic relations, including economic and security relations in each of these countries.”
Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, tackled a question from the press on whether the United States should re-establish diplomatic relations with Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban as have the countries of Central Asia.
“No, we shouldn’t,” Coffey argued, pointing out that the Taliban are not a monolithic organization. “The dust is still settling; we have no idea what the outcome is going to be.”
One of Coffey’s recommendations, however, is that the US government reach out to some of the groups that oppose the Taliban. “If we feel comfortable engaging with the Taliban…then why aren’t we comfortable enough reaching out and engaging in a dialogue with groups like Ahmad’s Masood’s National Resistance Front?” he put forth.
“We need a new strategy because the world, and the region, has changed over the past four or five years, most notably the US withdrawal from Afghanistan,” he added.
Daniel Runde, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, opined that any US engagement with Afghanistan would be different if the ruling Taliban allowed women and girls to go to school.
Since Central Asian states are Afghanistan’s neighbors, he argued, they need to get involved with the issue of education for girls and women.
Runde also pointed out the unique link between South Korea and Uzbekistan. One example is Asaka Motors’ production of Hyundai automobiles at its plant in the Syrdarya region of Uzbekistan. Recently, Asaka Motors International has entered into a long-term partnership agreement with the Korean auto manufacturer.
His recommendations to the incoming administration are to “go big” on the exploration of minerals, oil and gas, and repealing the Jackson-Vanik amendment, along with supporting the Middle Corridor.
Finally, expressing their final thoughts, Coffey and Runde both espoused that, most importantly, the US should: “Show up to the region!”
(Elaine Pasquini is a freelance journalist. Her reports appear in the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs and Nuze.Ink.)
