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Water disputes may derail Pak-India peace process: Wikileaks
KARACHI: Lingering water disputes between the two South Asian neighbours may derail the ongoing peace process or even to lead to war, Wikileaks cables revealed.
"Even if India and Pakistan could resolve the Baglihar and Kishanganga projects," wrote US Ambassador to New Delhi David Mulford in a confidential cable dated February 25, 2005, "there are several more hydroelectric dams planned for Indian Kashmir that might be questioned under the IWT (Indus Water Treaty)." Both Baglihar and Kishanganga projects are on the Chenab River, one of the three 'western rivers' to whose waters Pakistan has exclusive 'consumptive' rights under the IWT and which have been the source of long festering disagreement between the two neighbours.
The American ambassador also expressed guarded optimism that matters in "this politically charged impasse" would not spiral into "Islamabad's worst case scenario, that India's dams in J&K (Jammu and Kashmir) have the potential to destroy the peace process or even to lead to war".
In a cable dated November 3, 2008, then US ambassador to Pakistan, Anne W. Patterson pointed out that Pakistan was "facing a 34 per cent water shortage" that year because of a reduction in water flows in the Chenab, translating into "lower crop yields for winter" and "extended blackouts across the country due to reduced hydropower production". She also claimed in her communications that "Officially, India dispels Pakistani claims but, unofficially, the Indian side admits that 'structural constraints of Baglihar Dam and weather constraints' have resulted in a reduction of Pakistan's share of water." She noted that the dispute had "already resulted in increased anti-India sentiment among the local population".
Ms Patterson also wrote that "Privately, GOP officials acknowledge they are very worried about future plans for India to build numerous other dams (reportedly up to eight additional dams) on the Chenab River and the likelihood that water scarcity driven by India's increased usage will become a more frequent occurrence in Pakistan."
As Indo-Pak water disputes continue to remain unresolved over more than a decade of talks, it would do well to recall the comment a Pakistani diplomat had made to American diplomats in New Delhi. "There are no doves," Mr Mulford quoted him as saying in his 2005 cable, "and there are no moderates on water issues."
Courtesy www.geo.tv