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Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Incoming Pakistan PM good news for India: analystsNEW DELHI: India is hoping Nawaz Sharif’s return to power in Pakistan will herald an upturn in ties between the nuclear rivals as long as he can keep the generals who ousted him last time at bay, analysts say.
Sharif’s last stint in power from 1997-99 saw India and Pakistan clash in a limited conflict known as the Kargil war as well as Islamabad declaring itself a nuclear power, weeks after New Delhi said it had carried out its own tests.
But observers say Indian policymakers are keen to engage with Sharif and are more inclined to blame the military for ratcheting up tensions during his time in office. Sharif later claimed Kargil was launched without his consent by then head of the army Pervez Musharraf, who ousted him in a coup months later.
In a sign of his eagerness for a fresh start, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was among the first to congratulate Sharif, saying he hoped they could chart “a new course” and inviting him to “visit India at a mutually convenient time”.
For his part, Sharif told India’s NDTV network in an eve of poll interview that “civilian supremacy over military is a must” for Pakistan – comments that analysts say bode well for future ties.
Former Indian foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh said Sharif had shown willingness during his time in office to improve ties, citing the 1999 Lahore Declaration, which set out steps to cool nuclear tensions.
“We have dealt with him in the past and he is easy to work with. No other Pakistani leader has been as emphatic as Nawaz Sharif has been to resume the dialogue and improve relations with India,” Mansingh told AFP.
Pakistani commentator Ahmed Rashid said the key to better relations would be whether the army kept its distance – something he says it refused to do when Sharif was in power in two spells in the 1990s.
“Both times he made genuine efforts to make peace with India but was thwarted at every step by an aggressive and uncompromising army,” Rashid wrote in a piece for the BBC.
“This time around, the army – faced with an apparent collapse of the state – is also more amenable to the idea of improving relations with India,” Rashid added, while warning that outgoing army chief Pervez Kayani was uneasy at the idea of greater Indian investment in Pakistan.
Brahma Chellaney, a foreign policy analyst in New Delhi, also said the army’s willingness to take a back seat would be crucial and it was in India’s interests to bolster rather than undermine Sharif.
“Unless Sharif’s government is able to change the civil-military equation, I don’t see the relationship between the two countries changing radically,” Chellaney told AFP.
“India must invest diplomatically in a strong civilian government in Islamabad, or nothing will change,” Chellaney said.
Since the limited Kargil conflict, Kashmir has continued to be a running sore and the two sides engaged in deadly exchanges earlier this year across the unofficial border. Given his background in business, analysts say Sharif is likely to place more emphasis on trade.
“His pro-business outlook means he will make cross-border trade a priority and ensure that barriers to exports between the two countries are removed soon,” Mansingh said. afp
Courtesy www.dailytimes.com.pk