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Islamabad: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that Pakistan’s economic recovery has continued to strengthen under sustained policy implementation, with growth picking up, inflation remaining contained, and external buffers improving more than previously expected, warning that the evolving conflict in the Middle East has cast a shadow over the near-term outlook.

The Fund's Executive Board released the report on Friday after completing the third review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the second review of the arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

A day earlier, the country's central bank, State Bank, confirmed that it received $1.32 billion, saying the IMF had approved the disbursement of $1.1bn under the EFF and around $220 million under the RSF.

The global lender said that Pakistan had made “significant progress” under its reform program supported by the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

"Pakistan’s policy efforts under the EFF arrangement have delivered significant progress in stabilising the economy and rebuilding confidence amid a challenging global environment, including the ongoing Middle East war," the Fund said.

"Fiscal performance has been strong, with a primary surplus of 1.6 percent of GDP expected to be achieved in FY26, in line with targets. Inflation has increased as higher global commodity prices have passed through to domestic energy prices."

The IMF said that total disbursements under both programs now stand at roughly $4.8 billion.

The lender said the program has played a central role in restoring macroeconomic stability, improving confidence, and rebuilding external buffers in an environment of continued global uncertainty.

According to the IMF, Pakistan’s growth momentum picked up in the first half of the current fiscal year, inflation remained contained, and the current account stayed broadly balanced. Foreign exchange reserves also improved more than earlier projections, reaching about $16 billion by the end of December, up from $14.5 billion mid-year, it said.

However, the Fund cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East has introduced fresh uncertainty into Pakistan’s economic outlook.

"Amid a more challenging and highly uncertain external environment since the onset of the war in the Middle East, Pakistan needs to maintain strong macroeconomic policies while accelerating reform efforts, which are critical to managing further shocks and fostering higher sustainable medium-term growth," it noted. - The News

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