New Rand Study
Pakistan, an Important but Uncertain Partner
By Abdus Sattar Ghazali
CA
A new Rand Report says that Pakistan
is an important - but uncertain - partner in the
US war against terrorism.
The 567-page Rand study entitled “The Muslim
World After 9/11” was released on December
15, 2004. The report devotes 50 pages to Islam
and politics in Pakistan and 23 pages to Islam
in India. It also analyzes Islamic movements and
their impact on the political scene in Algeria,
Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco Saudi Arabia,
Tunis, Turkey, West Bank and Gaza. It also describes
the Islamic movements in Central Asia, South East
Asia and Africa.
“After September 11, 2001, Pakistan and
India played critical, albeit different, roles
in US counter-sterrorism operations in Afghanistan
and elsewhere as Pakistan provided access to bases,
ports, and air space and permitted the United
States to use special forces and agents of the
Federal Bureau of Investigation to track down
al Qaeda and Taliban fugitives inside Pakistan,”
the study said adding that India provided intelligence,
naval escorts through the Strait of Malacca, and
diplomatic and political support to the United
States.
Although both countries can continue to make positive
contributions to US counter-terrorism efforts,
policy decisions by each state have the potential
to seriously interfere with US operations in Afghanistan
and the war on terrorism generally and this is
especially true in light of the ongoing dispute
between Pakistan and India over Kashmir and its
potential to erupt into conflict, the Rand study
pointed out.
The report also studied the possible roles of
Pakistan and India in the future US counter-terrorism
strategy and identified the following policy options
that the United States might pursue to ensure
continued cooperation by each country:
“Pakistan is an important - but uncertain
- partner in counterterrorism: Pakistan remains
unwilling to jettison its active role in supporting,
training, guiding, and launching militant operations
in Indian-held Kashmir and elsewhere. This support
directly challenges US interests in diminishing
the capacity of terrorist organizations and degrading
their force projection capabilities. Moreover,
Pakistan’s prosecution of a low intensity
conflict with Indian-held Kashmir has exacerbated
New Delhi’s vexation with Islamabad. Pakistan
is unlikely to ease its policy of supporting militants
until the major sources of conflict with India
are resolved, most prominently the disputed disposition
of Kashmir.
“India is a long-term partner in counterterrorism:
Cooperation is fostered by the natural overlap
between India’s core strategic interests
and those of the United States. Equally important,
India can contribute to US efforts by not militarily
challenging Pakistan while Pakistani forces are
needed for operations on the eastern border with
Afghanistan. Nevertheless, India is not likely
to follow US policy in every instance. New Delhi
is less inclined to give Islamabad the strategic
and political space it needs to stop supporting
militants. India also chose not to participate
in Operation Iraqi Freedom. In the long run, however,
India will continue to share many US interests
and will continue to play an important role in
the war against terrorism.
“Kashmir poses a serious challenge to the
counterterrorism coalition: Without effective
diplomacy to resolve the conflict, the ongoing
dispute over Kashmir is likely to frustrate and
complicate US efforts to pursue bilateral relations
with Pakistan and India. Both states will consistently
depend upon the United States and others to acquire
exit strategies from an escalating conflict, to
compel the adversary to make concessions, and
to find political and diplomatic support. These
factors suggest that some kind of US intervention
in the region may be beneficial for all.”
Kashmir is the key to stability: While stressing
that a resolution of the Kashmir issue is vital
for stability in South Asia, the study further
pointed out that it should also be noted that
the Indo-Pakistan conflict has taken on dimensions
that implicitly assume the intervention of the
United States. Since the United States was able
to compel the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
to “respect the sanctity of the Line of
Control” during the Kargil Crisis, India
has come to see the value of the United States
in restraining its archenemy.
“In the military buildup of December 2001
that stretched through May 2002, both India and
Pakistan assumed that, should hostilities emerge,
the United States would step in immediately to
end them. New Delhi implicitly made this assumption
when flirting with its doctrine of limited war.
Pakistan for its part assumed that India would
not invade Pakistan with US assets sitting at
major Pakistani airfields. Both states believe
that the United States would quickly act to limit
conflict to prevent nuclear escalation.
“India for its part is pursuing a limited
war doctrine to free it from the strategic paralysis
resulting from Pakistan’s nuclear assets
and delivery means. Moreover, India faces increasing
domestic pressure to wage a war for peace. Should
another outrageous attack such as that perpetrated
against the Indian Parliament take place successfully,
India is very likely to act beyond the scope of
mere ‘coercive diplomacy.’
“As long as the Kashmir dispute
remains unresolved to the satisfaction of India,
Pakistan, and the various Kashmiri constituencies,
and as long as militant production and training
infrastructure persist in Pakistan, security on
the subcontinent will be a distant dream,”
the report stressed.
Close US ties with Pakistani military important:
America’s cooperation with the Pakistani
military is important because the military will
continue to dominate policy in Pakistan, according
to the Rand study.
The study pointed out that the Pressler Amendment
and its sequelae (such as the cutoff of military
training program IMET) precipitated a serious
disconnect between the US and Pakistani militaries
and a generation of Pakistani military officers
advanced to senior positions without contacts
with the United States.
The study said that the Pakistani military labored
with US weapons systems that were unusable because
of the inability to obtain spare parts which further
exacerbated their security concerns vis-à-vis
India. “ As a consequence of the estrangement
between US and Pakistani armed forces, many in
Pakistan have argued that the current army, though
the most secular, is also the most anti-American,”
the report added.
The Rand study stressed that the programs such
as IMET not only ensure that the United States
has good bilateral access to the countries’
training through IMET and similar programs - but
they also enable officers of other countries to
interact. It quoted Lieutenant General Mahmud
Ali Durrani (retired) as saying that one of the
most valuable experiences he had as an IMET student
was interacting with his Indian counterpart. Durrani
considered this formative experience to be the
motivation for his subsequent extensive dedication
to track-two efforts to bring about a normalization
of relations with New Delhi.
The study pointed out that Operation Enduring
Freedom (in Afghanistan) demonstrated that Pakistan
has many resources that are useful to the US military
and to the US Air Force in particular. “Pakistani
pilots speak English and have (for better or for
worse) relied on US weapon systems. The Pakistani
air force provided excellent logistical and basing
support. The Pakistani navy also provided basing
access and support.”
However, the study said that Pakistani elites
have expressed concern that investment in the
military bolsters the army and strengthens Musharraf’s
hand whose policies do little to create a viable
political space wherein Pakistanis can pursue
their political aspirations.
“Thus, there is a clear need to make investment
in Pakistan - not simply in Musharraf or the army
- a priority. This involves continuing and expanding
the investments that the United States is making
in education and economic and political reform.
In fact, investment needs to be made across all
dimensions of Pakistan’s human capital infrastructure,
including health and human services,” the
Rand study concluded.
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