Predicting
Polio Eradication
By Dr. Ghayur Ayub
London, UK
June 2002: The then health minister
predicts that polio would be eradicated at the
end of December 2002.
July 2002: “Three new cases detected in
Sindh, “ says a news item.
Polio was not eradicated that year!
April 2004: The incumbent health minister reiterates
a similar claim for December 2004.
May 2004: “Five new polio cases detected
in Sindh”-- news item.
Sept 2004: Same claim of eradication made by the
same minister.
Nov 2004: “Eight new polio cases in Punjab
and Frontier” -- news item.
Nov 2004: Polio will be eradicated at the end
of this year-minister of health.
Dec 2004: “Substandard vaccines given during
the drives against polio”-- news item.
Dec 2004: “The vaccines-which were rejected
and declared substandard by the World Health Organisation
(WHO) could be found in a huge quantity in NIH
storerooms,” says the minister. He also
announces, “Only 38 cases have been reported
in 2004 so far”.
After attending a seminar on the subject at the
Health Services Academy, a journalist labeled
the outcome of the polio eradication drive by
the ministry as ‘unsatisfactory’ alleging
that “the UN, World Bank and other international
agencies representatives were taken to ‘fixed
centers’, in Islamabad, and everything was
projected as ‘goody goody’.”
In actuality “a German expert of ‘polio
stop team’ visiting Pakistan gave a totally
different picture…. His findings were alarming,
since they showed that more than 20 percent of
the eligible children have been overlooked to
whom the polio vaccine drops needed to be administrated.”
So what about the repeated predictions by the
health minister? A reliable source from a relevant
donor agency was heard saying, “The health
minister is in the habit of promising something
he can’t fulfill.”
The question is: where should the buck stop in
this gross mismanagement; at the office of National
Coordinator EPI; or the ED-NIH; or the chair of
Minister of Health? Only the PM can decide on
that when he scrutinizes the three-monthly ‘Achievement
Report’ of the ministry of health.
For me, if gambling were not forbidden in Islam
I would have put my last rupee against eradicating
polio from the country at the end of December
2004 as predicted by the health minister.
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