Hamas
Victory: Positive for All
By M. A. Muqtedar Khan
Assistant Professor
Department of Political Science & International
Relations
University of Delaware
Non-Resident Fellow, Brookings Institution
After 9/11 the US foreign poli cy in the Middle
East did a U-turn on democracy. Recognizing that
stability – the policy goal until then –
was not guaranteeing security, the Bush administration
committed to promoting democracy in the Middle
East; working under the assumption that democracy
is an antidote to terrorism. They may be right.
What can be a more spectacular advertisement for
the idea that democracy makes politicians out
of terrorists than the electoral victory of Hamas
in the recent Palestinian elections?
Since its formation in 1987, Hamas [stands for
Islamic resistance movement; literally zeal],
has become the deadliest obstacle to US and Israeli
goals in the region. In the Palestinian territories,
Hamas is a quasi state providing several welfare
services, such as running schools and clinics
and even providing local governance and security
functions. Against Israel it has unleashed hundreds
of terror attacks, including suicide bombers causing
heavy civilian casualties. It has however maintained
a ceasefire since February in 2005.
Election Outcome More than a Negative Vote
Hamas’ electoral victory, though surprising
is understandable. Firstly, it has been the only
Palestinian response to Israeli military and settlement
building operations for over a decade. Secondly,
it has provided social services that neither the
Palestinian Authority – the recipient of
US and EU aid and Palestinian taxes – nor
Israel the occupier provides. Finally the unmitigated
corruption of the Palestinian Authority [PA] and
the inability of Mahmoud Abbas the choice of the
Bush administration to deliver anything –
governance or freedom – made Hamas a more
attractive choice for the Palestinians.
Hamas’ victory i s not only a rejection
of the corruption in the Palestinian Authority
but also a reminder that the roadmap to peace
has not alleviated the daily misery and humiliation
that Palestinians experience. The promise of peace
that Israeli withdrawal from Gaza had generated
has been lost as unemployment reached nearly 50%
and the territory was hovering on the border of
chaos with the PA failing to provide law and order
and also failing to launch any major developmental
initiatives.
Hamas’ victory is not just a negative vote
against the PA. Just as Israelis turned to Ariel
Sharon after the failure of the peace process
in 2001, the Palestinians too have now turned
towards Hamas after the failure of the roadmap
to peace in search of another alternative. The
roadmap to peace has been such a failure that
Israel under Sharon had already abandoned it to
pursue a unilateral agenda of separation by withdrawing
from Gaza and building a wall between the two
populations in the West Bank.
Both Washington and Tel Aviv have expressed dismay
and concern at this turn of events and are lamenting
the loss of a peace partner. While Condoleeza
Rice has expressed US willingness to continue
working with Mahmoud Abbas on all matters including
the peace process, Israel has repeated its unwillingness
to work with Hamas. Israel and the US maintain
that as long as Hamas’ goal remains the
destruction of Israel, it cannot be a partner
in a peace process that it explicitly rejects?
While I recognize the potentially explosive situation
with Hamas, I humbly submit that Hamas’
victory may very well prove to be beneficial to
all concerned parties.
The Window of Opportunity
It is common wisdom that a peace deal acceptable
to Likud is acceptable to all in the US and Israel.
Similarly a peace deal acceptable to Hamas will
be acceptable to all in the Arab and Muslim world.
Will an organization committed to Israel’s
destruction negotiate? Hamas has always negotiated
with EU, the US [indirectly] and with other Arab
interlocutors. The current ceasefire in place
since February is a negotiated outcome. While
the US, Israel and Hamas may wish to avoid negotiating
openly, given their past rhetoric, it is always
possible to negotiate through proxies. EU and
Egypt can play the role of proxies. Now ironically
Israel could have a real partner for peace since
Hamas can deliver what PA could never promise,
an end to the nightmare of suicide bombers.
The spoiler is now in the saddle and will have
to change its outlook, its perspective and its
politics if it wishes to remain in the saddle.
Israel and the US must handle the situation prudentially
not petulantly, and give Hamas the time and space
to find a face-saving means to alter its agenda
and a route to the negotiating table.
Recent statements by President Bush and Congressional
leaders threatening to cut off US aid to the Palestinian
government are counterproductive. It looks as
if the US is punishing the Palestinians for taking
calls for democracy seriously and will merely
be one more thing that the US is doing to make
Muslim life miserable. Moreover Iran will step
in and fill the gap and thereby increase its influence
and reduce US influence on the new Palestinian
government.
Hamas has promised to provide clean and efficient
governance and they cannot do so without day-to-day
cooperation with Israel. For its limited activities
it so far relied on funding from Islamist sympathizers
in the Arab World. But to govern the territories
it will need the financial aid from EU [$600 million]
and US [$70-$150 million] and the taxes that Israel
collects [$50 million]. It cannot be effective
without support and cooperation of all the three
players and hence will have to find a way to assuage
Israeli fears and earn its cooperation.
In a sense, Hamas’ desire to become a political
player and its electoral victory is a victory
for Israel. It now, for the first time, has direct
leverage over Hamas. It can make Hamas look inefficient
and incompetent and Palestinians who have high
expectations that their lives will improve may
soon turn against Hamas if its promises turn out
to be as empty as those made by PA.
Hamas’ victory also gives great credibility
to Washington’s claim that it is serious
about democracy in the Middle East. It belies
the Jihadist claim that the US is anti-Islam.
After all President Bush has not only enshrined
Islam in the constitutions of two nations –
Iraq and Afghanistan – he has facilitated
the pathway to power for Islamists first in Egypt
and now in Palestine.
Nothing serious can anyway happen until Israeli
elections are over in March. It is a good opportunity
for all parties to chill until then and ponder
the new realities. It will help if the decibel
level of the rhetoric is kept low. Hamas must
maintain the ceasefire and focus on governance.
Israel must recognize that peace between Arabs
and Jews cannot be piecemeal. It will have to
be peace between all Jews [liberal and conservative]
and all Arabs [secular and Islamist] in the area.
We now have another window of opportunity to make
a breakthrough in this conflict. Let us not squander
this one.
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