Dr. Ahmadinajad,
Just Don’t Go There
By Dr Ahmad Faruqui
Dansville, CA
I am talking about the point
of no return with the US. Your former enemy, Saddam
Hussain, crossed it in August 1990 when he invaded
Kuwait. Earlier, in a typical blustery moment,
he had threatened to gas half of Israel. Maybe
the petulant Saddam felt this would be his revenge
for Israel’s taking out his nuclear reactor
in 1981. But his brash decision to invade Kuwait
brought on an attack by a coalition of forces
led by the US in 1991 that reduced Iraq to rubble.
The few errant Scuds that he lobbed into Israel
carried no military value.
Of course, Saddam lived to cross the point of
no return again in 12 years, when he refused to
comply with American demands to yield his (non-existent)
weapons of mass destruction or leave the country.
He gambled that the Americans would blink and
this time he lost the entire country. He did not
realize that one day Americans would flush him
out of a spider hole at gunpoint and put him on
trial for mass murder.
Of course, your viewpoint is that Iran is not
Iraq. It has a population of 68 million, almost
three times bigger than Iraq’s. You are
blessed with 10 percent of the world’s oil
reserves and 16 percent of the world’s natural
gas reserves. Your influence on world oil prices
is much stronger than was Iraq’s, since
you provide five percent of the world’s
oil supply (4.2 million barrels a day) and export
about half of that.
In the event of hostilities either with Israel
or the US, you would be in a position to inflict
substantial economic harm by turning off your
production, shutting down tanker traffic through
the Gulf and attacking an important oil-processing
hub such as Ras Tanura. Oil prices would rise
over $100 a barrel, unleashing an economic tsunami
through the globe.
In addition, being the second largest country
in the Middle East, you have the ability to inflict
substantial harm on US military personnel in the
region. Recently, you hosted the head of the Mahdi
army in Tehran. During his high profile visit,
Moqtada al Sadr pledged that his militia in Iraq
would retaliate for any American attack on Iran.
You have also argued that Iran is the heir to
a great civilization that is governed by a democratically
elected leadership, not by a military dictatorship.
While there are human rights issues in Iran, a
corrupt and oppressive Baath Party is not in power.
Yet, was it not your nation that got embroiled
into an avoidable eight-year war with Saddam’s
Iraq, a war that left more than a million dead
on both sides and that devastated the economies
of both countries?
Recall that in the Gulf War, Saddam had coined
that most unfortunate of all expressions, “Mother
of all Battles,” to glorify war. However,
his million-man army, the fourth largest in the
world, capitulated in two months under unrelenting
American bombardment. The images of crying Iraqi
soldiers emerging from burning trenches with their
hands up are indelibly etched in our memory. Just
before the Iraq War began in March 2003, Saddam
had boasted that Iraq was no Afghanistan. But
while the Taliban regime lasted for two months,
his regime lasted only three weeks.
Mohteram Ahmedinajad, remember that should you
get into a fight with the Americans, no one will
come to your assistance, except for those fanatics
who may carry out a few (or even several) suicide
bombings on your behalf. These days, almost everyone
needs the US as a trading partner and everyone
fears it, even China. It will not irritate the
US by adamantly supporting Iran. Neither will
you find Russia coming to your help. And the Arab
street, which did not even rise in revolt for
Saddam, won’t do much for you.
Your military may be lulled into complacency by
war games coming out of some American think tanks,
which show that the US has no good military options
against Iran. But remember that some had said
similar things before the Gulf and Iraq wars broke
out. The US may be overextended globally but it
can still deliver one hell of a punch from the
air. B-2 Stealth bombers and F-17’s would
lead the attack and take out your air defenses.
They would be followed by air and missile strikes
from a variety of US air bases in neighboring
countries, aircraft carriers, surface warships
and submarines in the Indian Ocean. An American
attack is not just a theoretical possibility.
Canadian war correspondent Eric Margolis reports
that the CIA has already briefed Jordan, Pakistan,
Saudi Arabia and Turkey on its plans to hit Iran
if you don’t comply.
The best place for hot air is in a balloon, not
in the mind of a statesman. Think about the future
of your young country. You did a great job as
mayor of Tehran and need to do something equally
great for Iran. Almost 40 percent of your population
lives below the poverty line, in spite of your
country’s large oil and gas resources. Your
state’s involvement in the economy is large
and inefficient. That is why you have a low per
capita income of some $2,700 and an anemic GDP
growth rate in the 4-5 percent range.
Your priorities should be on economic reform and
on human and infrastructure development, not on
its destruction. A war with the US will destroy
economic deals that have taken years to develop,
such as the October 2004 long-term sale of liquefied
natural gas to China that could eventually be
worth $100-200 billion.
Don’t take on the United States of America.
The beleaguered Bush administration is looking
for an excuse to divert the public attention from
the failed and unending war in Iraq. Don’t
give it one. Bush spoke directly to your people
in his State of the Union speech. That is an ominous
sign. Remember the words of the Admiral Yamamoto
who said after the Japanese had attacked Pearl
Harbor, “We have awakened a sleeping giant.”
This time the giant is already awake and waiting
to come your way with the authority of the UN
Security Council.
Once force is used, Tehran may become a place
where, to recall a Persian couplet,
The spider weaves the curtains in the palace of
the Caesars
The owl calls the watches in the towers of Afrasiab
You have it in your hands to prevent such a day
from coming. Please start de-escalating tensions
with the West by complying with the latest IAEA
Resolution.
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