Iraq: There
is a Third Way
By Dr Muqtedar Khan
Assistant Professor
Department
of Political Science and International Relations
University of Delaware
Non-Resident Fellow, Brookings Institution
US
Iraq is a man-made disaster. According to the
UN, 6000 Iraqi civilians were killed in July and
August of 2006. In September over 66 American
soldiers were killed. In 2006, nearly 20,000 Iraqi
civilians and security forces have perished. The
status quo in Iraq is unacceptable; the country
is slowly and steadily becoming a horrendous humanitarian
tragedy.
In addition to the loss of human life in Iraq,
a leaked National Intelligence Estimate prepared
in April 2006 by 16 American intelligence agencies
asserts that US invasion of Iraq has become the
single most important reason for the growth and
expansion of Al Qaeda and Jihadism worldwide,
increasing terror and making the world less secure.
Amidst mounting criticism of his Iraq policy,
President Bush denies that his adventure in Iraq
is a failure. He claims that we are winning in
Iraq and also warns that unless we stay the course
we will lose the war on terror. Iraq, in his opinion,
is the key to winning the war on terror.
But the American people are fooled no more. They
are beginning to come out of the spin zone.
The unending and unrelenting stream of bad news
from Iraq is finally sapping the American will
to fight a war of choice. The recent victory of
Ned Lamont over Joe Lieberman in the Senate primaries
in Connecticut has served as a signal that public
opinion in America has changed with regards to
Iraq and the coming elections in November may
very well become a referendum on whether America
should 'stay the course' in Iraq.
Recent polls by NY Times, CBS and CNN indicate
that nearly two-thirds of Americans [62%] believe
that things were going badly in Iraq . Now, 51%
believe that there is no relationship between
Iraq and the war on terror. This is a significant
shift since June 2006 when only 41% believed that
Iraq had no connection with the war on terror.
Nearly 82% Americans indicate that Iraq will play
a very important role in their voting decision
in November and 59% of those polled oppose the
US war in Iraq.
There are now two reasons why there will be increased
public opposition to continued US presence in
Iraq. The first reason is the specter of American
failure to achieve its goals in Iraq; a world
without terrorism and a Middle East without dictatorship.
There is a limit to how long Americans can continue
to support failure and watch thousands die on
a daily basis. The second reason is the growing
realization that there was no linkage between
the war in Iraq and the war on terror. While Americans
do want to win the war on terror - there is no
other option on that score, they may not wish
to continue to lose in a war, which was optional
to begin with.
So far there are two plans for Iraq on the table:
the President's plan to stay the course, and the
demand by some Democrats such as Pennsylvania
Congressman John Murtha, to schedule an early
withdrawal. In my opinion neither plan truly safeguards
America 's security interests.
While invading Iraq was wrong on many levels,
withdrawing from Iraq will not solve the problem;
on the contrary it will only compound the dilemma.
A precipitous American departure will lead to
a full-blown civil war with more bloodshed in
Iraq, which will destabilize the Middle East and
undermine oil supplies. It will also embolden
the radical forces in the region, who will interpret
US retreat as a US defeat. It will inspire them
to do more and will attract more recruits, garner
more support and perhaps launch more ambitious
projects in the region and elsewhere.
In the long run a failed state in Iraq may very
well enable the emergence of territorial pockets
under radical control that could become bases
for Al Qaeda and its mimics that could threaten
US interests across the region and also subvert
European security more aggressively. These groups
also bring death, destruction, and destabilization
to Muslim societies wherever they operate from.
Clearly it is in nobody's interests to see radicalism
thrive in the Muslim World.
The US cannot stay the failed course in Iraq;
it's a travesty, and it cannot withdraw immediately.
Both will lead to catastrophe, only on a different
timetable. We desperately need a third way.
The key problem in Iraq is really the inability
of the US to put more boots on the ground to patrol
every street and every nook and corner in Baghdad.
Security in Baghdad is the first step to peace
and stability in Iraq. Also the visibility of
US occupation incites more anger and violence
and also to some extent justifies the insurgency.
The US can perhaps defuse problem by Muslimizing
the occupation of Iraq, by demanding key Arab
and Muslim allies to provide the necessary additional
troops.
This year alone we will be paying Egypt $1.8 billion
in military and economic aid, Jordan $468 million
in economic and security aid, Pakistan $370 million
in military assistance, Indonesia $75 million
in military and economic aid. Why can't these
countries provide 50,000 troops collectively to
patrol Baghdad and save Muslim lives? How can
the Muslim World simply stand by and watch a Muslim
nation implode without stepping forward to help?
Perhaps the US bravado and ascendant unilateralism
has kept them away until now. But everyone can
now see how desperate things are. The US desperately
needs help and its Muslim friends must be made
to come forward. It is time for the US to call
in some favors; a quick workshop in humility for
the White House staff may help kick start the
process.
The failure of the Bush administration to acknowledge
that it has committed gross errors in its vision
as well as in its strategy and execution of the
Iraq invasion, is forcing the American public
to choose between a losing strategy and defeat.
It is time for the President to be more honest,
to acknowledge his mistakes and seek fresh ideas
to resolve the crisis.
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