To Save Iraqi
Democracy Bush’s War will Target Shias too
By Dr M. A. Muqtedar
Khan
University of Delaware
US
Two
months after the America people expressed overwhelming
lack of confidence in President Bush and his war
in Iraq by handing over the House and the Senate
to the Democrats after twelve years of Republic
control, President Bush finally admitted that
strategic mistakes have been made in Iraq. In
a much-awaited speech he acknowledged his own
responsibility for the failures in Iraq and then
outlined a new strategy for ensuring the survival
of Iraqi democracy.
The twenty-minute speech was full of rhetoric
and staid platitudes about the “burdens
of freedom”, “the hope of liberty”,
“the author of liberty”, the “decisive
ideological struggle”, and was very thin
on substance. It even had a “Borat moment”
when he shared the intelligence with American
people that Al Qaeda planned to establish an Islamic
radical empire in the Al Anbar province of Iraq.
Indeed the new strategy outlined by President
Bush had much less to offer than had been expected
by experts and pundits. There was no clear plan
to bring about a political solution to the Shia-Sunni
divide; there was no firm commitment from the
US to provide economic relief to a country where
unemployment is reaching 60% in many areas and
there was no indication of how the US plans to
regain the confidence of the Sunni population
who are resisting both the new Iraqi regime and
the US occupation.
The plan basically has three new elements. One
is a tactical shift in fighting insurgency. In
the past US troops would clear towns and neighborhoods
and then leave allowing the insurgents to return.
But now the President has made a commitment to
clear and hold areas thereby preventing insurgents
from returning. The additional twenty-one thousand
troops to be deployed are necessary for holding
cleared areas.
Perhaps it has not occurred to the planners in
the Pentagon that if the insurgents and sectarian
fighters cannot return to their old neighborhoods
in Baghdad, then they may shift their locus of
operation to other cities and provinces. According
to this plan by November 2007, nearly all 18 provinces
in Iraq will come under Iraqi supervision, giving
the fighters many options for new theaters for
their activities.
The second new element in the plan is of a strategic
nature and truly significant. The President has
clearly indicated that unlike in the past when
the US refrained from disarming Shia militias
and taking actions against them, the US now intends
to act against them. His exact words on this score
were: “In earlier operations, political
and sectarian interference prevented Iraqi and
American forces from going into neighborhoods
that are home to those fueling the sectarian violence.
This time, Iraqi and American forces will have
a green light to enter those neighborhoods and
Prime Minister Maliki has pledged that political
or sectarian interference will not be tolerated.”
The promise is clear. The US intends to go after
Shia militias and PM Maliki will not protect them.
This remains to be seen. Nouri al-Maliki’s
government needs that support of the thirty seats
in the Iraqi parliament that Shia militant leader
Muqtada Sadr controls. If Maliki will not provide
political cover for Sadr and his brigands then
Sadr will not support Maliki’s government
and it could collapse. It is clear that Washington
is serious about this. A day before President
Bush made his speech Maliki warned Muqtada Sadr’s
Mahdi army to disarm or face US and Iraqi forces.
The grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani too has expressed
his support for disarmament of militias regardless
of their identity. While Sistani’s influence
on Iraqi politics has receded, his support is
nevertheless significant.
Will the new strategy work? The chances are remote.
This is clearly a case of too little, too late.
It also depends on many contingent factors. For
example, will the Iraqi forces, which are predominantly
Shia, act decisively against the Shia militias?
Or will US troops have to face the Shia militias
on their own? In the short-term one can expect
an immediate rise in US casualties; how long will
American public be able to stomach this?
The third element of the plan is a decision to
confront Iran. The President has deployed an entire
carrier force to threaten Iran, deployed a battery
of Patriot missiles to defend moderate allies
in the region from Iranian escalation and has
said that US troops will target and destroy Iranian
and Syrian networks in Iraq.
The most important recommendation of the Baker-Hamilton
Iraq Study group was that the US should establish
a dialogue with Iran and Syria and solicit their
help in stabilizing Iraq. Instead of listening
and acting on this wise advise, the Bush administration
has once again succumbed to its neo-conservative
instincts, and has decided to initiate a confrontation
with Iran and Syria. In a way this is an escalation
and even expansion of the war in Iraq to now include
Iran and Syria as targets of US military operations.
There is a major problem with this new strategy
and I wonder if American policy-makers realize
it. With this speech President Bush has practically
declared war on Shias. He has decided to go after
Shia militias in Iraq, and Shia regimes in the
region. Until now the US hads been fighting only
with the Sunnis -- al Qaeda and the Iraqi insurgency.
But from now on US troops will be fighting al
Qaeda, Sunni insurgents, the Mahdi and Badr militias
and perhaps even Iranian and Syria intelligence
and commando units.
Apparently, the Bush administration’s appetite
for war and violence is not being satisfied with
Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia; it is actually
seeking to open new fronts with more enemies.
(M. A. Muqtedar Khan is Assistant Professor at
the University of Delaware and a Nonresident Senior
Fellow with the Saban Center at the Brookings
Institution. He is also a fellow of the Prince
Alwaleed bin Talal Center at Georgetown University.
His website is www.ijtihad.org)
