Opinion

The Other Side of the Deal

By Wajid Shamsul Hasan
Former Pakistan High Commissioner to UK
London, UK

Newspapers — foreign and Pakistani -- have been carrying lot of stories regarding the possibility of a deal between General Musharraf and Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto. Only recently I came across at least three stories-- one after the other—in the leading English dailies of Pakistan in which it was more or less claimed that General Pervez Musharraf has been conducting discreet negotiations for some kind of a deal that would allow PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto to return to Pakistan and him to stay on as president. They quoted New York Times as the source of the story.
A similar piece captioned “Benazir in dilemma over deal issue” has claimed that “PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto is on the horns of a dilemma over striking any power-sharing deal with the present regime, as she is on the one hand finding it hard to resist the temptation of coming into power as a result of the expected settlement and on the other hand a strong opposition from within the party, coupled with the ongoing judicial crisis and the fear of being isolated from rest of the opposition parties, is restraining her from making any rapprochement with the General for the time being.”
Just on the eve of US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher’s visit to Pakistan stories got splashed that the American State Department official during his visit to Islamabad and talks with General Musharraf would broker some sort of understanding between the two. It was claimed he was in Islamabad to relay Washington 's interest in having Gen. Musharraf remain at the helm, as well to communicate to him that he needs to reach an accommodation with his opponents, especially Benazir Bhutto. While both Washington and Pakistan Foreign Office have denied the claim, Nation of Lahore has come up with the latest. It has claimed that in order to accelerate efforts aimed at striking the ‘deal’ between President Pervez Musharraf and the ‘liberal political forces’--specifically Benazir Bhutto, the Bush administration has decided to send yet another ‘emissary’ to Islamabad to join Mr Boucher. US Deputy Secretary of State, John Negroponte will land in Islamabad on June 15 to hold talks with General Musharraf and leaders of PPP as well as PML and other politicians along with Boucher to help form a broad-based government of liberal political forces after next general elections to counter the forces of extremism. Mr. Boucher will remain in Islamabad until June 17. Sources say one carries the carrot while the other is bringing a stick.
Since the “deal” has come to be a major business of interest in the media, one would like to comment on the subject not only because it has acquired the position of a permanent fixture, it has been rather confusing for the readers and those interested in the political developments in Pakistan as well. It is confusing because one day some newspaper claims that the “deal” has been finalized and gives the details of it followed by another the next day that the “deal” has hit snags. There have been editorials and other comments too adding more confusion.
This obviously creates a sort of perception that a deal is in the offing - -much of it of course is disinformation by the regime. PPP does not close doors on dialogue. Such dialogue has taken place several times since 1999 but not resulted in any agreement. PPP is not interested in a deal but in a transition to democracy through transparent elections. Any understanding only on cases could have taken place several times since 1999. It is acknowledged even by many of its critics that the PPP leadership has sacrificed and suffered tremendously for national interest of restoring democracy.
Now the situation has changed. PPP options have increased manifold while the regime's options have minimized. Two years ago no western country was willing to listen to anything against General Musharraf. Now the international media is writing that he will have to win over Benazir Bhutto for political support since she is the only federal leader who has the continuing charisma to rally the people around. By her painstaking struggle for democracy and rule of law she has got herself accepted as the only viable alternative within and outside.
PPP hands are tied by the fast changing and newly emerging ground realities. I think the best proposal has been made by Ms Bhutto. She wants an interim government of national consensus for holding transparent elections. She has also suggested to General Musharraf through the national and international media to summon a roundtable conference of all political leaders –of all shades and views -- including herself and Mian Nawaz Sharif and seek guidance from them to get out of the quagmire created by him.
The regime has been attuned to running with the hares of all sorts and hunting with the hounds of all breeds. It thinks it can impose a settlement by suggesting that cases would be withdrawn. However if this were the sole basis for offers, settlement would have taken place long ago. We also know that Ms Bhutto and ex-Senator Asif Ali Zardari suffered long and expensive legal battles. She deserves to be given credit for her tenacity, perseverance and dauntless courage. By waging a many pronged-war --- be it legal front, political or disinformation -- and by not surrendering to oppressive prosecution and persecution both within and abroad at the cost of billions to the poor nation's exchequer -- she has written with the sweat of her brow, blood and toil a new chapter in defiance against heaviest odds in the defense of her innocence and truth. She has firm faith that the Lord above cannot be corrupted by any military ruler and that her innocence would ultimately be triumphant.
A number of foreign governments and quite a large number of gullible people within Pakistan had initially believed in the concocted tales of corruption spread against PPP government and its functionaries through a concerted disinformation campaigning by firstly Farooq Laghari/Mian Nawaz Sharif government followed by the Musharraf regime. Ten years down the road with none of the cases against her proven, truth and justice are emerging triumphant.
In normal legal procedures onus of proving a person accused of doing anything unlawful lies on the prosecution. In Pakistan a Bonapartist Chief Justice — Sajjad Ali Shah -- in collaboration with President Farooq Laghari in order to seal PPP government's fate--passed a judgment against it on the basis of newspaper cuttings and his mala fide intents were clear when he announced his verdict just a few days ahead of the February 1997 elections.
It, indeed, goes to former Prime Minister's credit that taking on herself to prove her innocence and good governance in her days --(examples of her multifaceted achievements include her successful power policy that averted huge hours of load-shedding over a period of time and kept the wheels of industry going and her war against terrorism) she stood her ground over the last ten years. It is rightly believed that no court in the world would have courage to uphold Islamabad provided filth against her as proof especially when they know it now how its military ruler summarily treats/dismisses the Chief Justice of the country. Pakistani judiciary that has lately unshackled itself from the all-powerful executive's stranglehold would surely perform more independently and provide instant relief to her when she ends her exile. After all no charges against her can be proved if cases are decided on merit rather than the dictate of the executive to keep her out of politics.
Remember, the past despicable conduct of the leading light of the regime's team of legal brains in Chief Justice Chauhdry Iftikhar's case --Justice (R) Malik Qayyum who had broken all records of judicial demeanor by taking dictation on phone from Senator Saifur Rahman to convict and award her maximum sentence that he was ordered to by the ex-NAB Senator. In her appeal before the Supreme Court the bench headed by Justice Jehangiri, damaging strictures were recorded on the questionable conduct of the proceedings held by Justice Qayyum and the order passed by him. The Supreme Court also knocked the bottom out of the allegations by reverting the case.
Time to think and ponder is that only national consensus is the sole exit route available. Many half cranked intellectuals do not understand that Pakistan state is far too fragile for more boisterous experiments and GPM as a fast fading figurehead so far (I cannot be sure of tomorrow) is not yet fully written off by his western supporters; he is seen as the face of continuity and his mentors want to preserve him until such time when a firm and unshakeable democratic government is well-established in his place.
I have lot of faith in the street power to bring about a change but in a muddled scenario like Pakistan’s with too many players playing their games hiding in the closets, violent jolts are neither needed nor desired. I do not believe in the government-orchestrated so-called 7% growth rate. It is more of a fiction but it is helping it in surviving in power with foreign financial dole. It needs to be underscored that all power is ephemeral. Those who have exercised it know it too well. Political power is the most transient of all, indeed.
To save Pakistan from bloodshed, civil war or Talibanisation, it is reiterated that dialogue is the need of the hour and a constant process for the transition of democracy since this is the preferred option in the absence of the possibility of a viable and progressive revolutionary movement for change in Pakistan . To us Pakistan 's survival, it sovereignty and democratic future are issues that matter most and not individuals like Musharraf. Ms Bhutto has time and again emphasized that she wants peaceful transfer of power through transparent elections, return to democracy and rule of law. She has not compromised on any of these vital issues. It is General Musharraf's problem -- whether he comes out of the present crisis or not -- we are only interested that Pakistan survives and we have democracy back on track to slam doors permanently on dictatorship and the Talibanisation of the country.
The word 'deal' gives the impression that PPP would be supporting dictatorship but that is not the party or its leadership’s agenda nor their track record. The PPP is only interested in facilitating a transition to democracy because it sanguinely believes that democracy undermines religious extremism by providing for the social and economic needs of the people who otherwise are exploited by religious extremists.
Not undermining the hostile direction of the stormy wind now raging against GPM, even international agencies are writing him off. American Stratfor news intelligence service has been quoted: "Balancing the civilian side of his government with the military side is rapidly becoming untenable for Musharraf. As a result, the resolution to the current crisis requires a very complex arrangement that under the present conditions is unlikely to hold. Thus Musharraf at best can hope to share power as a civilian with a much broader array of far more assertive civilians", the news intel service concluded in its latest analysis on the situation in Pakistan .
It also suggests that there is going to be “a Pinochet-like transition, instead of a Marcos-like one," one former Pakistani official told TPMmuckraker. In other words, according to the ex-official, the US may not stand foursquare behind its ally Musharraf until he's ultimately forced from power, as President Ronald Reagan chose with doomed Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos. He can be eased out of power while the US slowly distances itself from him, allowing for as smooth a transition as is possible in the turbulent South Asian country, says Spencer Ackerman in his in-depth article in TPMmuckraker.com
Over the past few weeks, writes Spencer, US intelligence has started to conclude that Musharraf is on his way out. "It is the sense people have, and it's been out there," said Rob Richer, a former deputy head of CIA operations, to Spencer, who has met with Musharraf personally and long worked with the Pakistanis on intelligence issues. "This is the view of both senior (US intelligence) officials and people who follow the issue closely." What's more,” Richer tells TPMmuckraker, Musharraf himself knows his time is up, and is "looking for an exit strategy". The mistakes Musharraf has made expose a regime "imploding" under the weight of its contradictions. It is incapable to mollify the multifaceted discontent that has taken root since Musharraf seized power in a 1999 coup. In short, the message is GPM’s goose is finally cooked.

------------------------------------------------------------------------