Opinion

The Great Unraveling
By Ahmad Faruqui, PhD
Dansville, CA

We are witnessing the deconstruction, brick-by-brick, of the political edifice that General Pervez Musharraf had assiduously built over the past eight years.
• His claim to be the most popular leader in the country has been offset by a recent BBC poll which says that honor belongs to his nemesis, Nawaz Sharif.
• His claim to have brought real democracy to the country is belied by his furtive deal making with Benazir Bhutto, another former prime minister about whom he had nothing positive to say in his memoirs.
Despite having overthrown a democratically-elected government in order to seize power for himself and despite having amended the constitution to perpetuate his rule, he has continued to insist that he has never acted against the constitution.
• His assertion that he was ushering in an era of enlightened moderation is contradicted by the cover story in the current issue of National Geographic and by the terrorism index in the current issue of Foreign Policy.
Musharraf argued in his first speech that he acted in the national interest. For a while, people believed him. After 9/11, he changed the long-standing stance of the Pakistani army on the Taliban, which most Pakistanis welcomed. He entered into peace talks with India and the world rejoiced.
The US recruited him to fight the global war on terror, forgave Pakistan’s debts and sent billions of dollars in foreign aid. The economy soared (even though poverty persisted).
The general, who survived two assassination attempts, had the makings of a hero. His book tour of the United States was a public relations triumph and his appearance on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart seemed to cement the picture of his invincibility.
That myth was shattered on the 9th of March when the general moved to suspend the chief justice of the Supreme Court. Musharraf denied charges that he had suspended the judge because the latter was taking a serious stand on the issue of missing persons. He denied that the judge’s suspension was caused by a fear that he would rule against the legality of the general’s re-election from the existing assemblies.
Much to the general’s chagrin, no one believed his counter story. The Chief Justice became the darling not only of the black-suited barristers but also of the man on the street. The lawyers’ revolt mirrored the political maturation of the nation.
But it displeased the general enormously. His troops did nothing on the 12th of May as scores of people who had come to see the Chief Justice in Karachi were gunned down by the general’s political lackeys. This shattered the image of the general as an honest broker. And it exposed a sizeable chink in his armor. His popularity plummeted.
The Lal Masjid incident failed to yield any political dividends. It was too little, too late. It did not help matters that the first congratulatory call came from President Bush.
Then came the bolt of lightening from the Supreme Court, when it reinstated its Chief Justice. After that historic judgment, the Court came through with a second judgment, declaring that the man who had been deposed by Musharraf was free to return home.
Both judgments were a surprise, perhaps the first more so than the second. For Musharraf, there now looms the prospect of a third judgment. If the Court rules against the legality of the Dual Office holder’s re-election by the existing assemblies, then the wheels will come off the commando-wagon.
To borrow a phrase of Churchill’s, the terrible ifs are accumulating. The deal with Benazir Bhutto is stalled, the ruling party that had kept him in power is infuriated that it has being asked to amend the constitution so that she would become prime minister.
Musharraf must be experiencing the fear that tormented Zia when Bhutto’s fate hung in the balance (what would he do if the Supreme Court were to acquit Zulfikar Ali Bhutto?).
The newest worry for Musharraf is that he may no longer have enough votes to be re-elected by the existing assemblies, even if the Supreme Court does not render his upcoming re-election invalid.
And without the People’s Party, he would not have enough votes to amend the constitution, to allow him to serve as a president once he leaves the army at the end of December (as he has said the constitution obligates him to do).
The political charade is coming to an end. All the contradictions of running a parliamentary democracy with the army chief as the chief executive stand exposed. He might as well declare himself army chief for life, following in the shoes of General Pinochet of Chile.
Musharraf may have thought of declaring a state of emergency, which would postpone the elections, or of declaring martial law, dissolving the assemblies and suspending the constitution. The fact that he has not done either is largely because he knows force simply won’t work in the current political situation.
As it is with many episodes in history, there is no shortage of ironies in the current one. The Railways Minister is taking more interest in the general’s uniform than in the poor state of the trains and tracks.
The chief of the ISI is negotiating with Benazir Bhutto instead of searching for Osama. Even the astrologers are weighing in on Musharraf’s chances with some saying he will survive and some saying he will not. There is an eerie resemblance to the Ayubian denouement of 1969.
Hats off to the Pakistani judiciary for proving its independence. The Bar Association should declare 2007 as the Year of the Supreme Court.
And, if Musharraf declares an emergency or martial law, Parliament should impeach him. By now it is clear that his loyalty is not to any political party or to the people or even to the army. It is but to himself.
The good news is that Pakistan is on the brink of a genuinely democratic revolution. It has found its political personality. Pakistanis should rejoice in the immortal words of Victor Hugo: “No one, not even all the armies of the world, can stop an idea whose time has come.” That idea is to establish a representative government along the lines of what Iqbal dreamed about and what Jinnah sought fervently to accomplish against very difficult odds.
Such moments come rarely in a nation’s history. Hopefully this one will not slip away.

------------------------------------------------------------------------