A Post-Musharraf Pakistan
By Frankie Martin
Washington, DC
After indicating they were willing to support Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s exit, US officials are now being forced to contemplate something which they had previously viewed as unthinkable: a Pakistan without their trusted general at its helm. Even the Pakistani military signaled they were no longer willing to support Musharraf, leaving the embattled leader with very few friends.
The question everyone was asking was: how long will he last? Tariq Ali, writing on Comment is free last week, gave Musharraf only days in office. Now we know: the General has resigned, rather than face the threat of an unprecedented impeachment from Pakistan’s parliament.
This leaves the United States and its western allies like Britain in a difficult position. The US – as it has done so many times – put all its eggs in one basket in the military ruler Musharraf, and perceptions of the US have plummeted along with Musharraf’s career. An overwhelming percentage of Pakistanis are opposed to Musharraf’s war against militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas, seeing it as an unnecessary American intervention that has made Pakistan less secure. The US must understand that in voting to impeach Musharraf, Pakistanis wanted to vote against the US and the way it is conducting its “war on terror” in Pakistan.
Prominent Pakistani government figures, including PML chairman Nawaz Sharif, PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, have pushed for a new approach to Pakistan’s tribal areas which focuses more on dialogue instead of Musharraf’s bombardments which radicalized the tribes and led to a perception that their religion, culture, and ethnicity were under attack.
The departure of Musharraf is a strong indication that the US needs to change course quickly in its “war on terror” in the region, a change demanded by Pakistan’s population. Pakistan is America’s major non-NATO ally, but its population is drifting further and further from the US. If the US does not shift to a more culturally nuanced, efficient policy in the tribal areas that balances the threat of force with efforts to reach out to the tribes and understand their position, it will be in danger of continuing to promote Musharraf, even now that he has gone, by perpetuating the discredited policies that characterized his rule. This will have a disastrous effect on US-Pakistan relations and will also serve to swing the pendulum further towards religious conservatives who preach that Islam is under attack from the US.
In the face of Musharraf’s exit, I am left thinking of what might have been. I had the opportunity to spend an hour with Musharraf in Rawalpindi as a part of a research trip I took around the Muslim world for the book Journey into Islam: The Crisis of Globalization by Akbar Ahmed (Brookings Press: 2007). The Musharraf I met was warm, engaged, and possessed a genuine sense of humor. He spoke passionately about Pakistan and also Islam, especially the moving experience he had taking the haj to Saudi Arabia. He spoke of the need to balance Islamic religion and culture with the opportunities offered by the West, and said that it was possible to be both Muslim and modern without being western. He also, curiously, spoke of his admiration for Napoleon Bonaparte in a discussion about history; I think he may have seen himself as a patriotic military leader who sought to implement religious freedom and other reforms through the military.
Musharraf failed in this dream, partly because of the trappings of absolute power and partly because myopic directions from Washington to attack terrorists diverted any education funds there might have been toward weaponry to reign down upon the restive tribes.
It is interesting because, Musharraf’s dream for Pakistan is exactly the vision of Pakistan’s founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, who formed a modern, democratic Muslim state on the basis of human rights, women’s rights, and minority rights in 1947. It is this vision that both the US and the Pakistani government must return to as the country moves into the post-Musharraf era. This means strengthening the judiciary and rule of law while also reinstating Pakistan’s civil service – the organisation Jinnah once referred to as the “steel structure” of the state – which Musharraf dismantled in favor of the military.
The post Musharraf-era is in the hands of the people of Pakistan. The US can help by providing its ally with strong leadership, guidance, and resources to strengthen a fragile democracy. But if America reverts to the same Musharraf-era policies and the law and order situation deteriorates further, Pakistan could soon be saluting a new military dictator.
