Can India "Do a Lebanon" in Pakistan?
By Riaz Haq
CA
www.riazhaq.com
Gung-ho members of India's middle class clamor for Israeli-style retaliation against jihadi training camps in Pakistan. But India can "do a Lebanon" only by risking nuclear war with its neighbor; and Indian intelligence agencies are too inept to imitate Mossad's policy of targeted killings, which have reaped for Israel an endless supply of dedicated and resourceful enemies.
The preceding words were written by Pankaj Mishra and published in the Guardian newspaper just a few months ago. Mishra is the author of Temptations of the West: How to Be Modern in India, Pakistan and Beyond .
Writing for the Guardian newspaper, Mr. Mishra further added, "In an article I wrote for the New York Times in 2003 I underlined the likely perils if the depressed and alienated minority of Muslims were to abandon their much-tested faith in the Indian political and legal system. Predictably Hindu nationalists, most of them resident in the UK and US, inundated my email inbox, accusing me of showing India in a bad light."
The growing admiration of the Jewish state and the urge to emulate Israel often find expression in the Indian media. Those who argue for "doing a Lebanon" in Pakistan have once again found growing support in India with the government and the media joining the chorus of accusations of Pakistan's complicity in the Mumbai attacks. Saber rattling has also started with India's Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee not ruling out military strikes in Pakistan. President-elect Obama has come out in support of India's right "to protect themselves". Asked if India had the right to "take out" high-value targets inside Pakistan with or without the permission of Islamabad, as he is espousing in regard to the US under his presidency, he said: "I think that sovereign nations, obviously, have a right to protect themselves". This is the same kind of language that President Bush has often used in support of Israel's attacks on the Palestinians and Lebanese.
Given the angry and vengeful public mood in India, the apparent green light from Obama, and the elections only a few months away, would the Indian government be tempted to "do a Lebanon"? To examine such an Indian fantasy, let us look at the South Asian reality.
Even though Pakistan's military is dwarfed in size by the Indian military, it is still a very large, well-equipped, well-trained and effective professional fighting force that has never hesitated in taking on India's conventionally superior might. Contrary to the Indian folklore of "defeating Pakistan" in several wars, India has not been able to score any decisive victories over Pakistani military except in the Bangladesh war where Pakistanis, cut off from the Western wing of the country and surrounded by India, found themselves trapped by a ferocious Bengali insurgency supported by Indian government. Counter-insurgency is where most conventional armies of the world, including Pakistan's, are not very effective.
Pakistani military is definitely much larger in size and strength than the Lebanese military. In fact, it is the fourth or fifth largest military force in the world. On the other hand, Lebanon has never been a conventional military power. Lebanese military has never taken on the Israelis, leaving it to Hizbullah to do the asymmetrical resistance using guerrilla tactics and outdated Katyusha rockets. Needless to say, the Israelis have failed to achieve their objectives in Lebanon in spite of the use of US-supplied high-tech weaponry and overwhelming force. Israelis have failed to gain the release of their dead and captured soldiers and have not been able to stop Hizbullah or Hamas from carrying out attacks against Israelis.
If the Indian leadership does decide to emulate the Israelis in Lebanon, they may be able to make some short-term tactical gains, getting the satisfaction of killing a few suspected "terrorists" along with many innocent civilians, and occupying a small chunk of Pakistani territory temporarily. But in the long run, they run the risk of a spectacular strategic failure leading to more and bigger terrorist attacks and possibly a nuclear conflagration in the South Asian region. Any reckless adventure by India will almost certainly relieve pressure on Al Qaeda and the Taleban in Pakistan's FATA region, strengthen support for Pakistan's military, weaken Pakistan's democracy and help in the emergence of a popularly supported Hizbullah style resistance group in South Asia.
Even if any credible evidence is found implicating Pakistanis in the Mumbai attacks, the Indian fantasy of "doing a Lebanon" is completely futile and misguided. Instead of military confrontation against each other, India and Pakistan must be persuaded to collaborate and together confront the terrorists who indiscriminately inflict pain and suffering on the Indians, Pakistanis, the United States and the rest of the world.
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