A War of Succession
By Ahmad Faruqui, PhD
Danville, California
A war of succession is being waged in Pakistan today, not unlike the ones that would follow the death of a Mughal. But there is one notable difference. The emperor is still in residence.
In a sign of his declining fortunes, US Secretary of State Condi Rice stated recently that Musharraf made a mistake by declaring an emergency on the 3rd of November. This was the first time that a senior member of the Bush administration had questioned Musharraf’s decisions.
A few weeks back, Islamabad was awash with rumors that a wide-body aircraft had been flown in to whisk away “an important family” to a foreign destination, possibly the dome-and-minaret-lined Istanbul. A few days later, Musharraf held a press conference and said he had no intention of resigning and would “live and die” in Pakistan.
But, he added, if new laws stripped him of the (dictatorial) powers that he had assumed during the past eight years, he might leave office rather than be reduced to a “useless vegetable.” That was a clear broadside directed at the parliamentary system of checks and balances envisaged in the Constitution of 1973 under which the president is a titular head of state. Musharraf had made a similar comment early in his rule.
As cited by Ahmed Rashid in his remarkable new book, Descent into Chaos, he had said, “I am not power hungry. But I don’t believe in power sharing. I believe in unity of command. That is the army’s way of doing business.” The fact that no democracy in the world was governed through unity of command did not bother him in the least because Pakistan was unique and different.
True to form, a few days later the ex-army chief contradicted his statement about leaving office if parliament reduced his political powers. He threw the gauntlet and said he would only quit if it was clear to him that the Parliament would impeach him.
Such brash talk reveals that Musharraf has not changed an iota from the man who launched the foolhardy incursion into Kargil in the winter of 1999 and then, when things went awry and he was about to be held accountable for his actions in the fall, he overthrew the prime minister and had him arrested.
Ahmed Rashid cites a former army chief’s assessment of Musharraf: a good tactician and a poor strategist. Ironically, this fits the commando image that Musharraf has cultivated since Day One.
Of course, Musharraf flatters himself into thinking that his decision making is on a par with that of Napoleon Bonaparte. He frequently draws inspiration from Napoleon’s maxim that two-thirds of every decision is based on analysis and one-third is a leap in the dark.
Musharraf has done his analysis and concluded that he won’t be impeached since the coalition government does not have the necessary two-thirds majority in the combined houses. But he also knows that the current political order is fraught with uncertainty and that is where he has leapt into the dark.
Yes, he has made a deal with Asif Zardari that drops all legal charges against him and, in return, presumably obtained a commitment to (a) delay indefinitely the restoration of the judges and (b) not pursue impeachment. But he also knows that Zardari is not the final arbiter of what happens on the political stage.
There is first of all the army that Musharraf no longer commands. His at-risk status is analogous to that of President Iskandar Mirza in October 1958 when he made Ayub, his army chief, the Chief Martial Law Administrator. Ayub himself became at risk in March 1969 when he asked General Yahya to declare martial law.
And then there is the pesky lawyers’ movement. Even though the Long March did not culminate in a parliamentary sit-in that could have decided the fate of the judges, it sent a very strong and visible statement that reverberated throughout the globe, that the people of Pakistan wanted the parliamentarians to fulfill their electoral promise.
Until the core issue of judicial independence is addressed, one should expect to see more protests and long marches and possibly parliamentary sit-ins and wheel-jam strikes.
Asif Zardari knows that without the lawyers’ movement, he would simply have been Mr. Ten Percent and Musharraf would still have been occupying the office of the army chief, not just his residence.
It is unfortunate that some leaders of the PPP have taken to blackballing the lawyer’s movement. They are questioning the motives of the deposed judges and of the attorneys calling for their restoration. Some are seeking to discredit the movement by saying it includes people with a questionable pedigree.
Others are saying, don’t resort to agitation on the streets unless you wish to invite another coup. Still others are saying, stop raising the issue of restoring the judges because the restored judges will immediately go about invalidating Musharraf’s presidency, triggering political mayhem, annoying the White House, stopping American aid and cause an economic meltdown.
But the new Economic Survey tells us that the meltdown has already begun. Ties with the US are frayed and not just because of the confusion over Musharraf’s future role but because of the ham-fisted way in which the war on terror is being waged.
And as for the lawyers’ movement, it is not about the lawyers but about the restoration of the rule of law. So what if there are a few bad apples in the movement.
Every mass movement in history attracts its share of unsavory characters. The mob that stormed the Bastille on the 14th of July and set off the French Revolution was no exception. But when the noble movements succeed, yesterday’s villains become tomorrow’s heroes.
Because of Musharraf’s refusal to step down voluntarily, the country is engaged in a costly power struggle. This could have been avoided if Musharraf had made the building of civilian political institutions a priority instead of dissembling about restoring genuine democracy. But hubris blinded him and he focused on extending his rule, using the war on terror as a convenient excuse.
The world has tired of his double-dealing. Little wonder that a global poll of the world’s unpopular leaders puts Musharraf at the top of the heap, ahead of George W. Bush. Now that is no minor accomplishment.
(The writer is an associate with the Pakistan Security Research Unit at the University of Bradford . faruqui@pacbell.net)
