After the Collapse in Pakistan
By Ahmed Quraishi
Shanghai, China
The dangerous internal tension in Pakistan prior to the Feb. 18 general election inspired commentaries in the West about the imminent collapse of the Pakistani state. Like Iraq, some US strategists even called bluntly for putting US soldiers on the ground in Pakistan.
But the Pakistanis proved everyone wrong when the election passed peacefully and predictions of a civil war were laid to rest. There was hope in Pakistan that its long discredited politicians have changed and that they will help the country return to parliamentary democracy.
Yet three months later, hope is fast eroding that stability will return to Pakistan anytime soon. The United States played a role in this mess by twisting the arm of President Musharraf and forcing political change at a speed that the country could not absorb without getting off-balanced. There is also evidence that some of the regional players exploited the uncertainty to compound Pakistan’s troubles. The evidence also shows that Washington was unable to restrain these regional players at best, or simply turned a blind eye at worst because it suited its policy objective of besieging a beleaguered Pakistani leadership.
Pakistan had also proven in recent years that it holds tremendous economic potential in addition to being a strong military power. For the past five years and until last year, the nation had led Asian growth surveys. This singular achievement is under attack since last year and the economic decline has reached dangerous levels now. Foreign reserves are fast depleting and there is no sign that Pakistani politicians are capable of dealing with the inherent weaknesses of the parliamentary democracy that Pakistan practices. These weaknesses are scaring investors away. Politics of revenge trump everything else in today’s Pakistan and we are fast becoming a nation excessively focused on the past instead of planning for the future.
It would be reasonable at this point for Islamabad’s political and security managers to start contingency planning for how to deal with the situation if and when the current political system in Pakistan collapses under the weight of its own contradictions and weaknesses.
The Pakistani military, like the politicians, does not hold a magic wand to solve Pakistan’s challenges. But the institution – which is strong, nationalistic, and forward looking – has the best contingency planning abilities and human resources than any other institution in Pakistan today.
But a typical military takeover will not help now. Drastic changes in the Pakistani constitution, the political system and the composition of Pakistani politics hold the only key to ensure a strong, emerging Pakistan in the 21st century. Islamabad has already wasted too much time. Except Afghanistan, almost all of Pakistan’s neighbors – Iran, the Gulf, China, and India – are well on their way to strong economic growth. The political systems in these nations, despite being different, do no offer loopholes that allow for domestic instability or foreign interference.
The objective of a major overhaul of the Pakistani state is to create a government that is able to project its interests and strengths outwards while maintaining a robust internal political system that creates and breeds leadership and focuses on the future.
The parliamentary democracy with multiple centers of power is not suited to Pakistan and the offices of the prime minister and the provincial chief ministers can be abolished in favor of a strong presidential democracy. This will strengthen accountability, reduce tensions, and ensure smooth policy execution. President Musharraf’s system of city and district governments can be expanded in the shape of several more provinces instead of the existing four, headed by a governor and a locally-elected parliament. This way, both responsibility and prosperity will be transferred to local voters. There are several blueprints and variations on this idea in the drawers of many think tanks in the country. This might be a good time to dust them off.
Tough reforms will have to target the existing and future political parties. Regular and transparent internal party election has to become a prerequisite for the party to qualify for participating in national elections. This will end leadership rot and allow fresh leaders to emerge. New legislation will have to be introduced to control party finances and expenditure.
Islamabad will have to become organized on the economy. Everyone likes to be part of a rich country. Everyone wants to secede from a poor one. Instead of becoming prey to foreign saboteurs and outside funded NGOs, our youth need to see Pakistan turn into the best land of opportunity there is. We need to create opportunities in sports, music, culture and business. And we can. The boom in privately-held television industry, for example, was possible in Pakistan as far back as the early 1990s, but we did not do it until 2002. The irony being that a military ruler took the initiative that eluded our democratically elected rulers for an entire decade.
Finally, reviving the faith in Pakistani nationalism can provide enough push for this reform plan for the Pakistani state. Nations need to have a sense of destiny to move forward. With a great history going back a millennium, and beyond that in ancient times, and with great cultural and martial traditions, Pakistanis are the splendid product of Central, South and West Asia with a distinct identity of their own. Our schools and the media can change the nation’s mindset if we all put our minds to it.
Given where Pakistan stands today, and regardless of the idealism of Westminster democracy, putting Pakistan on the right track is not possible for the politicians alone. Nor can the military pull it off by itself. A successful, stable and prosperous Pakistani state depends on a civilized and reformed political system with defined rules of the game, backed by a strong military commitment in the background for the near future to ensure the continuity of the new system. - aq@ahmedquraishi.com
