Presidential Elections and America’s Readiness for Change
By Mohammad Ashraf Chaudhry
Pittsburg, CA
These days the buzzword in America is ‘change’. The desire for a change had always been there, but what made it a passion had been the success of the Democrats in the November 2006 midterm elections. And this altogether created a new political landscape in Washington. In the words of Robin Toner of the New York Times, “The results were widely seen as a call for change”.
It is no surprise that both the candidates vying for the Democrat Party’s nomination for presidency are so often heard using the word ‘change’ in their speeches. But, the real question is: Is America ready for a real historic change that is being talked about, or is it just rhetoric? Pundits suggest that America is just getting ready, which doesn’t mean that it actually is.
American voters in all likelihood in the November 4 2008 presidential elections seem to be ready, but most probably they will not vote outside the box. History supplies the answer. In the words of Adam Nagourney, the chief political correspondent for The New York Times, “For more than 200 years, American Presidents have been, with one exception, ( President Kennedy who was a Roman Catholic), white, male, and Protestant. In 2008, a number of presidential “firsts” are possible”. The “firsts” he is alluding to are: Senator Barack Obama of Illinois with a father, perhaps a Muslim, and an African from Kenya; Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, the wife of former President Bill Clinton and the first First Lady to be elected to public office; Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts and a Mormon who has now dropped out; and Bill Richardson of New Mexico, whose mother is Mexican, and who also has dropped out.
Even Senator McCain also joins the list of the ‘firsts’ being the oldest candidate ever to contest the elections. Out of the initial eight Democratic hopefuls, at least four were the ‘Firsts’ in one way or another. The question Adam Nagourney raises in this article is: “Are Americans ready to send a black man, a woman, a Hispanic, or a Mormon to the White House?”. This was then when all the eight were in the race. In the current situation the question is: “Is America ready to see a black man or a white woman sitting in the Oval Office for the first time? Perhaps not.
The process of presidential elections in America in itself is unique and lengthy. From start to finish it takes about two years and 51 days. We remember the first candidate who jumped in the presidential race of 2008 elections was Tom Vilsack of Iowa (D), and that was in November ‘06. At the time this article was being written, which is April 21, Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama, the two main Democrat contenders, are still not sure who is to win the Party’s nomination. And who finally gets the tag will be decided in the Democratic Convention to be held at Denver on August ’08.
The Republicans, however, have been lucky this time. The President could not contest for the third term by law; and the vice president did not offer himself for the nomination, a rare happening. And that made things easier for George McCain, a 71-year-old cancer survivor veteran to win the Republican nomination.
This, nevertheless, raises another concern. The vice presidency with Dick Cheney’s eight years in that capacity is no more a job once characterized by George Clinton, Thomas Jefferson’s vice president, as “respectable retirement”. John Adams, the country’s first vice president, had been so unhappy with this job that once he famously called it “the most insignificant office”. May be the job was so listless because in those days the vice president used to be the losing rival and not a running mate as is the case these days. And rivals are always opponents. The system as is present today - the joint election of the President and Vice President - was ratified through the 12th Amendment in 1804.
Even after the change, it is the President who has exclusively remained as the fountainhead of main power. As the joke goes, the main job of the vice president often has been to attend state funerals overseas. No wonder that very few vice presidents could distinguish themselves; often they have been relegated to oblivion as politicians. But not Dick Cheney, and Al Gore.
In recent years, Al Gore under President Clinton often remained closely involved in White House decision-making process ‘to an unprecedented degree’; and now Dick Cheney, who has remained a close confidant and one of the senior advisors of the President during all those eight years. It is no secret that in all the domestic and foreign policy major decisions, such as the invasion of Iraq, vice president Dick Cheney, has been very influential. It is no more the same office which once was turned down by Senator Daniel Webster when asked by Zachary Taylor to be his vice president. The reason he gave for the rejection was, “I do not propose to be buried until I am really dead”; nor is this job now as demeaning and redundant as once it was termed by John Nance Garner, FDR’s two-term vice President. In his estimation this job was not “worth a bucket of warm spit”…actually the rhyming word which he used was much cruder.
While Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama may appear to be making a “dream-team”, if they chose to pair up, the hottest question in the Republican camp that needs special consideration is: “Who will be the running mate of Republican candidate John McCain? After all, vice presidency is ‘a heartbeat away from the Oval Office”, and by the time John McCain takes his oath, if elected, on January 20, 2009, he would be close to 73.
There is no doubt that America has come a long way in improving the civil rights and living conditions of the minorities, especially those of women and African Americans in the past fifty years. But, as statistics show, it is still not in that mode in which it could accept any one of the two (a black male or a white female) as President. The new Congress now includes 87 women (among them the first female Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi of California). Adam compares this figure with the 1984 Congress which had only 25 women. (It is a respectable improvement when compared to the 1917 Congress which had only one woman). But this is just 16% for a female population of the country which is about 51%. It was in the year 1984 that Geraldine Ferraro, a Democrat from New York, just like Hillary Clinton in 2008, had run as a major party vice presidential candidate. Now the country has a woman vying for the highest job.
The African Americans have also made tremendous gains. The Congress has now 43 Blacks, 30 Hispanics, and 16 Mormons, along with 43 Jews, and as a great consolation to the Muslims, it also has for the first time, a Muslim Representative, Mr. Keith Ellison, a Democrat from Minnesota. In 1915 only 23% women worked; now the figure has risen to 59%.
A Gallop poll hints about this change in future, and the nation’s willingness to elect a woman or an African-American as President one day, but not this year.Change is in the air, and indeed, times are changing. Analysts show that in the past eight years, “the country has shifted markedly on the issue of gender… voters could very well be open to electing a woman in 2008”. Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, who herself had been a candidate for the Republican nomination for President in 2000 is optimistic, but is not certain, “I’m not saying it’s going to happen in ’08. But the country is ready”.
The chances of an African-American getting elected as President, however, are grimmer as compared to that of a white female. Demographics help us understand this why. Adam says, Blacks are concentrated in about 25 states, typically blue ones, like New York and California. Even in those states where they are in majority, they are not without stumbling blocks. No black candidate can take for granted the black voters’ support, and very few can claim to possess a charismatic ‘crossover appeal”, so essential to attract voters in states that are without a large black population. Blacks make 15.3% of the population as compared to 86% Whites.
Adam measures the scenario from another angle also. Cultural heritage is a factor that cannot be sidelined in elections. Reverend Jesse L. Jackson who ran for President in 1984 and 1988 says, “All evidence is that a white female has an advantage over a black male, for reasons of our cultural heritage. He is, however, hopeful that it is easier now than it was before”.
According to Geraldine Ferraro, “I think it’s more realistic for a woman than it is for an African-American… there is a certain amount of racism that exists in the United States. Whether it’s conscious or not, it’s true… women are 51% of the population; Black make up about 13%”. Most Presidents have been Governors once. The executive experience which the governorship of a state provides is more advantageous to a candidate for Presidency than his/her being a Senator. Even on that score the Blacks are dismally low in numbers. There is currently one black Governor - Deval L. Patrick of Massachusetts. And he is the second in the nation since Reconstruction, says Adam. By contrast, there are nine states that have women Governors. Religion is yet another factor that comes into play in the election year.
Is America ready for a Black President? The CNN polls indicate that 62% of the entire mixed population says it is, and 34% says no; among Whites, 65% say yes, and 31% no. Among Blacks, 54% say yes, and 31% say no.
On the question of ‘Is America ready for a Woman President?” 60% of the mixed population said yes, and 37% said no.
The country made one big change when it embarked on a democratic journey. Andrew Jackson, the People’s president, in one stroke in 1828 ushered in the common man’s era by eliminating property ownership requirements for voting. The change was good, but only for the white people. Women and African Americans still remained enslaved. Economic boom and real growth that came with the journey to the West still failed to reach women and the Blacks . It was only in the 1840s and 1850s that some new rights finally came to women. The age-old curse of slavery also came to the forefront as an issue. The issue initially divided the nation with the basic question: could the federal government bend states to its own to abolish slavery? The gathering storm finally burst into a civil war in 1861. As the historians say, it was a storm that had been building for 250 years, ever since the first slave was brought in chains to this continent. The civil war finally settled this question. Only those nations make progress that prepare themselves for a change.
The most important factor that finally will impact and decide the 2008 elections in America will be that of the youth vote. As one can see, all candidates are courting the youth through such channels as YouTube, MySpace and FaceBook and through the homepages. And the youth’s dissatisfaction with the present regime is well pronounced.
According to the CNN polls, some 58% of the youth between the age of 17 to 29 say that they are paying attention and are watchful of the election trends. In the 2004 elections at this point this percentage was 35%. The youth is particularly familiar and interested in the two Democrat candidates. Ever since the 26th Amendment that lowered the voting age to 18 from 21 in 1972, the interest of youth in the elections has been on a gradual rise. Currently 66% of them between the age of 17-29 say that they are not happy the way President Bush has handled the presidency as compared to 63% of all adults. 54% of them disapprove the way Congress has conducted itself in matters of great importance like invasion of Iraq and war on terrorism. 58% of them say the US should have stayed out of Iraq. They are also very unhappy with the health-care program. 62% of them favor universal health care system. And these are the main issues including the question of illegal immigrants that make the main theme of the speeches of the candidates, and that are going to determine the outcome of the 2008 presidential elections.
Presidents in the past two centuries have sent troops to fight abroad for more than 200 times. It is the youth that pays the price for wrong decisions. The nation only reaps the rewards for the sacrifice they make. In this elections, they are particularly watchful as to who becomes the President to tell them, “I’m the Commander-in-Chief”.
In the next article we will attempt to see how far Pakistan is ready for a change towards democracy.
