Dialogue with Mullah Omar
By Air Marshal (Retd) Ayaz Ahmed Khan
Los Angeles, CA
President Hamid Karzai’s appeal to the fugitive Taliban Amir, Mullah Omar “to return home under guarantees of safety to help bring peace to Afghanistan” proves that Taliban have become indispensable and a force to reckon with in Afghanistan’s polity. Their attacks and suicide bombings have played havoc with life, property, peace and stability in Afghanistan. They want Sharia and nothing less, and have a vengeful mindset, yet Karzai believes that he can bring them on board .
In an interview to Geo TV on Sept 30, 2008 President Karzai said: “I propose Mullah Mohammad Omar to get back to Afghanistan. I will be wholly and solely responsible for his security and I shall be answerable to the whole of the world on his behalf.”
Hamid Karzai’s offer of negotiations, to give the NATO-ISAF forces safe passage out of Afghanistan, demonstrates his frustration at the US-led war on terror. But this statement has implications for the future of Afghanistan. If Taliban could play their cards well, they could be Karzai’s partner in ruling Afghanistan. Taliban should come to the negotiating table and demand general elections in Afghanistan, under the auspices of the OIC. Taliban could win the elections in several provinces, especially the seven adjacent to Pakistan’s border.
Hamid Karzai is an able ruler in his own right, but his position is tenuous without US-NATO backing. He will run for his life the day US-NATO troops leave Afghanistan. Sensing victory in the long run, Mullah Omar is acting tough, in the belief that time is on his side. Karzai’s offer of peace talks has been rejected by a Taliban spokesman, saying “there would be no negotiations until foreign troops withdraw from Afghanistan.” This means that fighting, bloodshed and violence will continue for a long time, and the common man will suffer.
In 1978, Afghanistan was invaded by the Soviet Red Army. One million Afghan citizens were killed and an equal number injured and maimed by bombings, missile attacks, and mines sprayed on villages and towns. A million Afghans were killed and equal number maimed. A generation was wiped out. Three million took refuge in Pakistan. The Afghans fought back and threw the Red Army out. The defeat of the mighty Red Army triggered the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the Soviet defeat, warlords and drug mafias indulged in loot and plunder till the Taliban conquest of Kabul in October 1996. The Taliban fighters under Mullah brought peace, but Taliban rule was ruthless, vicious and merciless. Mullah Omar wanted to impose Islamic Sharia by the sword and rifle butts and bullets. He welcomed Osama bin Laden, whose 25000 fighters helped the Taliban to consolidate their hold over entire Afghanistan. Taliban rule was harsh, brutal, obscurantist and cruel. Mostly illiterate Taliban started killing and beating the people into submission. They massacred ethnic minorities ,viz Hazaras, Uzbecks, and Shias. Afghan women were the target of their religious frenzy. They and trampled on the rights of women in the name of Sharia.
Taliban are Sunni Pushtuns who are keen on ridding Afghanistan of ethnic and religious minorities. Mullah Omar rose from a village Mullah to the all-powerful Taliban leadership. He claimed to have visions of God and Prophet Mohammad (pubh), anad gave himself the title of Amir-Al-Momineen. Osama–bin-Laden was his honored guest. When the Twin Towers in New York and Pentagon were attacked by Al-Qaeda, by ramming passenger planes into them, and killing three thousand innocent people, the Taliban expressed glee instead of remorse. This and their fanaticism and support for terrorism infuriated the West, especially America. The US President vowed to avenge this barbarity.
The US President ordered the air invasion of Afghanistan. During the last eight years of bombings and land attacks hundreds, hundreds of thousands of Pushtun’s have been killed. But the Taliban could not be defeated. Amazingly despite US--NATO Occupation the Taliban have continued their resistance. Taliban attacks in 2007, have taken a heavy toll of US and NATO troops, and Afghan National Army soldiers. About 1000 NATO and US personnel have been killed, including 700 US soldiers and officers. Thousands of Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers have died as the insurgency intensifies. British Army officers in Afghanistan, including top British Commander Brigadier Mark Carleton, have expressed the danger of a Taliban victory, stating, ”It is not possible to win the war against the Taliban. A deal with the Islamic militants might have to be reached to end the insurgency”. White Hall and US generals have rejected the idea of pulling out of Afghanistan and have reiterated to dig in for a long stay. Rigid stance of the Taliban or US-NATO is unwise. A way out must be found.
On Sept 25, NWFP Governor Owais Ghani stressed that the US should talk to Mullah Omar in order to negotiate peace in Afghanistan. Urging the US to talk to militant commanders in Afghanistan to establish peace, Ghani said: “They have to talk to Mullah Mohammad Omar, certainly; and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and the Jalaluddin Haqqani groups. Mullah Omar is not dead, and he is a political reality.”
There are three kinds of Taliban. 1. Loyalists of Mullah Omar, who claim to be fighting in the name of Allah and have resolved to establish Sharia. They are hard liners. 2. Taliban who are in the pay of various Islamic warlords like Hikmatyar, Haqqani, Baitullah Mehsud, and Maulvi Fazalullah of Swat. They have not rejected dialogue. The third are groups of militants, who fake as Taliban, but are criminals and thugs. They raid, kill, take hostages and demand ransom.
Taliban are not a cohesive force under one leader. Yet, the bottom line is that political stability will come to Afghanistan only “when all the political power groups, irrespective of the length of their beard, are given their just due share in the Afghan political dispensation,” according to the NWFP governor who made the observation in an interview with a London-based newspaper. Under President Barrak Obama, a stick and carrot policy could be adopted. In Washington officials are talking about bilateral talks, while reviewing the military policy, which has not worked.
Owais Ghani’s proposition to initiate peace talks with the Taliban came at a time when better trained and equipped Taliban cadres have stepped up hit-and-run operations in southern and eastern Afghanistan in order to demoralize the army and police force. Their deadly attacks have been focused on the Afghan army, police, government departments and foreign aid workers. The Taliban fighters are motivated and their fighting skills have improved The insurgency at present is largely restricted to seven provinces, all straddling Pakistan’s north-western frontiers. American politicians and generals are talking tough, despite increased losses in men and material. In his speech at the National Defense University in Washington, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, "The US has to act against terrorists hiding in Afghanistan and Pakistan”.
President-elect Barak Obama has reiterated US Army pullout from Iraq, but surge in Afghanistan to defeat the militants. He believes that terrorist safe heavens along the border in Pakistan must be wiped out. With the change in Washington, missile bombings by US drones are likely to intensify.
With Barak Obama as President, America is likely to review its military strategy. So far the US-led NATO forces have failed to uproot the Taliban fighters. Taliban supported by warlords and drug mafias have adequate resources and supplies. The resurgence of the Taliban fighters has even surprised the American military strategists. The insurgency is getting bloodier and more deadly and costing more GI lives in Afghanistan than in Iraq. Bloody suicide attacks, ambushes, roadside bombs and bold and brazen assaults on the NATO and ISAF troops in the southern and eastern parts of Afghanistan are a daily occurrence. Mullah Omar and Taliban militia, have fixed the 2010 summer deadline for a complete takeover of the war-torn country. But defeating US-NATO-ISAF-ANA (Afghan National Army) is easier said than done. It is beyond Taliban capacity.
The Taliban are dispersed across Afghanistan, lack telecommunications, yet their command and control structure is working. But this is a nebulous and weak position. The Taliban have lost many top military commanders including Mullah Dadullah Akhund and Mullah Akhtar Osmani. Missile bombings by US drones are taking a very heavy toll of Taliban commanders and fighters. Mullah Omar is a fugitive and is in hiding. The Taliban chief is alive and functional, but in no position to assert his leadership over entire Afghanistan. Being a fanatic is one thing, but a realist another. He has been sending war directives and instructions to his field commanders from his hideout through audio-tapes, letters and verbal messages. Such a guerrilla organization is unlikely to prevail over a super power or NATO in the short term.
Where is Mullah Omar? It is seven years since Mullah Mohammad Omar, vanished into the trackless terrain outside Kandahar. The American intelligence agencies repeatedly claim that one of the most wanted fugitive, who has a $10 million FBI bounty on his head, is guiding his forces while hiding somewhere in Quetta. Such intelligence findings are a failure of intelligence agencies. He is the most wanted fugitive after Osama Bin Laden. Mullah Omar is not going to surface unless all foreign forces leave Afghanistan
In Oct 2001, the US stated objective was to eliminate the Taliban militia, to catch Osama bin Laden and prominent al-Qaeda members and establish a Northern Alliance-led regime in Kabul. However, seven years later, as the Bush era is coming to its fag end, it has failed to achieve any of these targets, especially the uprooting of the Taliban. Pentagon is reviewing plans of troop surge in Afghanistan on the Iraq pattern. They argue that Afghan surge is unlikely to work and “isn’t in the works. Rugged terrain and lack of sufficient troops have led Pentagon to consider special operations teams to zero in on Taliban hiding in caves, culverts and narrow valleys. Senior Pentagon generals are studying proposals to dispatch teams of “highly trained special forces” to target the most violent Taliban insurgent’s and militant bands on both sides of the border.” These new proposals are an acknowledgement of senior US military brass, that large scale influx/surge of conventional forces is unlikely in the near future, because US troop commitments in Iraq. It clearly reflects acknowledgement of setbacks against Taliban. There is intense debate in the Pentagon, about the best way to fight and defeat the Taliban.
As the security situation worsens in Afghanistan, US military officials are increasingly arguing that an Iraq style troop surge plan would not work in Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s rugged geography, and the history of Pushtuns to rule from Kabul, calls for an urgent review of military policy and plans. Afghanistan is mountainous and rugged and Pushtuns are un-educated, wild but intelligent. Many American writers call them “cowboys in turbans”. They have been resisting and ambushing foreign invaders since centuries. The remote villages in the mountains are hard to reach with large formations of conventional troops. Now Pentagon generals reason that “Afghanistan is a different place and to surge forces doesn’t necessarily fit”. The generals agree that Afghanistan is the greatest challenge for General David.H. Petraeus, the new C-in-C of US Central Command, who will oversee the war in Afghanistan. Washington needs to review not only its military policy, but more importantly, its political policy in Afghanistan. Washington should ponder the possibility of bringing on board Mullah Omar and other Taliban leaders.
2009 is likely to be a crucial year for the United States, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and off course for the Taliban. The US and ISAF are not likely to pull out. Can the Taliban inflict unacceptable losses on foreign troops when they lack air power? Air Force is the strongest factor of advantage to the US-led ISAF and NATO forces. The well-trained Afghan National Army of two lakhs (200000) will be a force to reckon when fully operational. It is an army dominated by ethnic and religious minorities. It is far from reality that the Taliban can defeat and crush US-NATO-ISAF-Afghan National Army. Both Taliban and the US-NATO-ISAF-ANA are in a no-win position. The Taliban will become a force to reckon with and should be brought on board. Sixty percent Pushtuns are a majority in Afghanistan and must not be denied their just rights. Both foreign troops and the Taliban can go on bombing and killing each other, but to no avail. Both Mullah Omar and US President-elect Barak Obama should support the efforts of President Hamid Karzai and heed the advice of NWFP Governor Owais Ghani.
War is no more the solution to the situation in Afghanistan. It must not be the only option. Dialogue is.
