The Beginning of History
By Ahmad Faruqui, PhD
Dansville, CA
As the last century drew to a close, it was the Soviet Union and not the United States that found itself dumped on the “dustbin of history.” Karl Marx, who had coined this phrase to represent the end-state of capitalism, would not have been pleased.
An era of un-checked prosperity and world peace led by the US beckoned on the horizon. Against this backdrop, Francis Fukuyama penned “The End of History and the Last Man.”
He argued that the world was witnessing “not just the end of the Cold War or the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such.” Fukuyama went on to say that man’s ideological evolution had reached an end-point with the triumph of Western liberal democracy.
Such pulpit oratory, as The Economist put it, was well suited to the spirit of the 1990s. It cracked as the dot-com bubble burst in the spring of 2000. And the devastation unleashed by 9/11 swept it out to sea.
Events would show that the new century represented not the end of history but its beginning. Henceforth, conflict and not cooperation would be the hallmark of the human condition.
At the cusp of the twentieth century, South Asia was jolted by a series of nuclear explosions. Pakistan’s fateful decision to launch a ballistic missile on April 6, 1998 may have been the provocation India needed to come out of the nuclear closet.
It came out swinging in mid-May with five nuclear tests at Pokhran, less than a hundred miles from the border with Pakistan. In a couple of weeks, Pakistan gave a “fitting reply” by hitting a six.
As the world united in its disapproval of these tests, the prime ministers of both countries signed a declaration of peace in Lahore in February 1999. But behind the scenes, Pakistan’s army had already launched an incursion into Kargil. The ensuing military fiasco would precipitate a coup d’etat in Pakistan in October.
The following year would be taken up by General Musharraf’s feeble attempts to acquire legitimacy. The man whom the world regarded as a pariah would turn into a hero when he dumped the Taliban under US pressure. Unfortunately, by refusing to make a similar U-turn in domestic policy, he sealed his fate.
The war in Afghanistan, which deposed the Taliban from Kabul, failed to bring about the much-awaited capture of Osama bin Laden. The ensuing civilian casualties fueled widespread anti-Americanism in Pakistan .
On December 13, 2001 a small group of terrorists carried out a failed attack on the Parliament Building in New Delhi. This led to the mobilization of a million troops along the India-Pakistan border. Western diplomatic pressure on the antagonists narrowly averted Armageddon.
But the recalcitrant jihadis remained committed to wresting Kashmir from India. They would later morph into the Pakistan Taliban and wreak havoc at home through a chain of suicide bombings.
As the twentieth century drew to a close, America was celebrating one of the longest periods of economic growth under President Bill Clinton. The biggest worry was that a global computer malfunction might occur as the year 2000 arrived in what was dubbed the Y2K problem. But this never happened.
Soon after a Republican president took office whose verbal impotence soon became the butt of all jokes. But George W. Bush found his voice after 9/11.
He would work to implement the Plan for the Next American Century which had been carved up by the neo-conservatives in the wake of his father’s defeat to Bill Clinton. The plan called for remaking the Middle East, to ensure the smooth flow of oil to the West and the security of Israel.
Oil continued to be the engine of growth in the Middle East. But while economic growth was brisk — as it had been since the escalation in oil prices following the October 1973 war and the Iranian Revolution — the distribution of income continued to worsen.
In the Arab world, population growth was rapid and unemployment levels, especially among the youth, were high. Political rights were non-existent and human rights only partly in evidence. Israel, a self-proclaimed democracy, continued to deny political freedoms to the Palestinians living in the territories it had occupied illegally in 1967.
The impact of 9/11 was felt hugely in the region, since the official American position, unchallenged by any Arab state, was that all the attackers were Arabs and 15 of the 19 were from Saudi Arabia.
The US began to withdraw its forces from that country, in a concession to terror mastermind Osama bin Laden. But it also geared up to invade Iraq, which the Bush administration said was a grave danger to world peace.
US Vice President Dick Cheney toured the Arab capitals in the spring of 2002 but failed to garner any public support for the planned invasion. Nevertheless, the US went through with its plans the following year.
The regime of Saddam Hussain was deposed in three weeks but no weapons of mass destruction were found. The war fueled the birth of an insurgency whose existence was first denied by the US, then conceded grudgingly with the proviso that it was “in its last throes.” Now, we are told, a temporary surge in American forces has vanquished it.
As the eighth year of the new century draws to a close, the US finds itself mired in the worst economic crisis since the great depression of 1929. While the causes are many, it is clear that the two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have taken their toll.
The government which Washington installed in Baghdad wants the Americans to leave soon. And Washington may soon be inviting the Taliban to join the government in Kabul
Pakistan’s economy was struggling even before the price of oil crossed a hundred dollars a barrel. Now it is in free fall. Standard and Poor’s has downgraded its sovereign rating twice this year, pushing it into junk territory.
In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Musharraf’s successor telegraphed his demand to the West: “Give me $100 billion.” But this won’t be called aid, which is “proven to be bad for a country.” He will not spend the money, just to use it for to restore investor confidence “every time there is a bomb.”
Fukuyama was half right. Old history has ended. And a new one has begun.
(The writer has authored “Musharraf’s Pakistan, Bush’s America and the Middle East.” Faruqui@pacbell.net)
