What Have Missile Bombings Achieved?
By Air Marshal (Retd) Ayaz Ahmed Khan
Los Angeles, CA
President George W. Bush, US officials, Senators, Congressmen and American newspapers have advocated air and land attacks on insurgents hiding in FATA villages. Drones firing Hellfire missiles have wiped out dozens of villages, scores of terrorist hideouts in Pakistan's tribal areas, since October 2005, with zero success in ending terrorists’ attacks, especially suicide bombings.
In fact the most disastrous suicide bombings, including assassination of Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007 and the deadly Marriot Hotel bombing on September 20, 2008, took place, when Raptor and Rapaer missile bombings were at their height.
In a Hollywood fiction film titled "The Eagle Eye", the US President orders Hellfire missile bombing by Rapaer drones to slaughter mourners burying a fellow tribesman at a graveyard. The pictures taken by Rapaer Drone cameras show that while a dead body was being lowered into a grave, the missiles struck, and burnt to death all the mourners. The President in the film had rejected the advice of the Defense Secretary that the funeral procession was burying a dead body, and missile bombing would only cause heavy casualties. The President overruled the advice, and the movie showed live footage of the slaughter of innocent people.
The fictional movie illustrates the mindset of a fictional US President, and the accuracy and lethality of Rapaer and Predator drones. Since 2005, US Predator and Rapaer drones, gunship helicopters and fighter aircraft have launched over fifty missile and bombing attacks on FATA villages as well as one land assault, killing over five hundred people and injuring twice that number, including women and children, with no significant results.
In October 2005 three Predator drones fired several Hellfire missiles into a madrassa in Bajaur, killing 83 people, including twelve children. Musharraf claimed responsibility for the attack stating that it was carried out by Pakistani Army Aviation helicopters. Eye witnesses including an ML(N) MNA had denounced the statement, claiming that the missile carnage was carried out by American drones.
The NWFP government and Governor NWFP are requested to order an enquiry to establish the truth.
During the US Senate hearing on September 28, Secretary Gates said that the US considered terrorist insurgency in FATA the greatest danger confronting the West. He said that the UN Charter under which US troops are stationed in Afghanistan, gave the US troops the right of self-defense when a foreign government was unable or unwilling to deal with international terrorist activities from its territory.
In his speech at the National Defense University in Washington, Secretary Gates said, "The US had to act against terrorists hiding in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
"If we fail or are seen to fail, it would be a disastrous blow to US credibility among our friends and allies and potential adversaries".
These are unwise, irresponsible threats, which amount to the declaration of war on Pakistan. Such utterances disregard the consequences of the slaughter of Pushtun population in Pakistan's tribal areas. The US war on Iraq is a total disaster. Iraq has been destroyed, and US has paid a very heavy price in terms of lives and dollars. War on Pakistan would be twice as disastrous for Pakistan and for America. NATO and the US Forces have the resources to stop militant infiltration from Pakistan into Afghanistan. Why a plan or a strategy has not been made to stop terrorist incursions. The pretext to bomb Pakistani territory and violate its sovereignty to stop terrorist infiltration has not worked and is unlikely to succeed. Significantly Gates said that logistic support through Pakistan is vulnerable to terrorist attacks, and the US is looking for alternate channels for the supply to NATO and US troops in Afghanistan.
Air incursions and air and land attacks are in clear violation of the UN Charter, and international law.
The two aspects of US attack plan on FATA, are reconnaissance, air and ground attacks on Al-Qaeda-Taliban fortifications and concentrations. The US Air Force is using Predator and Rapaer drones to photograph and attack selected targets since 2005. Over one thousand recce sorties have been flown and every inch of FATA has been electronically photographed. NATO, US Army and US Air Force have detailed maps of all passes, tracks, hills and valleys, houses and mud fortifications, caves and hideouts in FATA, especially of North and South Waziristan, Kurrum, Khyber, Bajaur and adjacent agencies.
The new Rapaer drone travels at twice the speed of the Predator, and is less vulnerable to ground fire. The Reaper flew its first mission on October 1, 2007 and is the most lethal drone in the USAF inventory. According to US experts, "It bristles with guided missiles and bombs similar to those aboard an F-16 jet fighter." The Reaper has flown hundreds of missions, attacking targets in Afghanistan using 500 pound bombs and 110 pound Hellfire missiles. It has caused heavy casualties and immense destruction, with no visible results.
As aerial bombing by drones is cost effective, and land attacks would be expensive, unmanned planes, piloted remotely from Nevada in America, will be increasingly used for attacks on insurgents' hideouts. These remote controlled planes have the ability to linger over a target for twenty-four hours, and provide clear images of the insurgents’ movements, hideouts, deployment and concentrations, to US and NATO commanders.
The electronic photo capability of the US drones is amazing. These fifth generation un-manned planes can detect a man with a suicide belt, automatic weapon or a cell phone. But in a letter to me, Mr Afridi from FATA has contradicted my findings, adding that US drones cannot detect suicide bombing belts or cell phones. Besides they cannot detect plans and intentions of the militants.
So far Predator and Rapaer missile bombings have killed hundreds of people in FATA, but terrorist bombings are continuing unabated in Afghanistan and Pakistan. No strategic results are likely to be achieved by Hellfire missile bombings from un-manned guided planes. US experts claim that un-manned drones will change the nature of anti-terrorist war by their surprise and shock effect. MQ-9 Reaper is indeed a formidable weapon system against undefended targets. "With an external payload of 1.5 tons including LGB's, Hellfire's precision munitions and SAR / wide aperture FPA optics it sure can strike the ‘bad guys’ in tribal areas with impunity. Long endurance at 160 kts loiter ensures that the targets can be picked up at leisure a la a video game."
But US missile armed drones are highly vulnerable, because of their low speed. The drones are likely to be used in greater numbers by the USAF. They will cause casualties, but without strategic results, i.e. surrender. Such attacks will increase the suicide bombings in Pakistan. Hellfire missile attacks will aggravate the situation, and will not resolve the terrorist problem. US leaders and generals must do some hard thinking.
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