Seven Years Later: Assessing the War on Terror
By Muqtedar Khan
Director of Islamic Studies
University of Delaware
US
It is seven years since that terrible day of September 11, 2001 when terrorists killed 3000 Americans. It triggered in a massive global response by the US. As President Bush's term comes to an end, it is time to assess the prudence of his policies.
- President Bush's "global war on terrorism" neither eliminated nor reduced global terrorism. It actually caused an exponential rise in the number of incidences and number of victims. The surge in terrorism as seen in the table below is a direct response to US invasion of Iraq.
Year |
Total Number of Terrorist Attacks |
Total Number of Deaths caused by Terrorism |
2001 |
531 |
3295 |
2002 |
199 |
725 |
2003 |
208 |
625 |
2004 |
651 |
1907 |
2005 |
11,111 |
74,087 |
2006 |
14,000 |
20,866 |
2007 |
14,499 |
22,666 |
(Data is from State Department and the National Counterterrorism Center)
2. The two strategies of the Bush administration, preemptive wars and treatment of terrorism as war and not as a crime, have both been discredited. A survey of a bipartisan panel of terrorism experts conducted by Foreign Policy Magazine found that 70% of them believed the US was losing the war on terror.
- The Bush wars have caused 35,000 American casualties, 4700 dead and 30,000 wounded.
- Deaths by terrorism in Europe, Middle East and Asia have risen dramatically since 9/11. Civilian deaths in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, at the hands of terrorists, insurgents, US and NATO forces, are approaching nearly a million by some estimates and the refugees generated by these conflicts exceed over 3 million.
- A recent Rand Corporation study of 648 terrorist organizations has concluded that over 43% of them have ended after they were included in the political process, only 7% were destroyed by use of military force and 40% were eliminated through policing and criminal prosecution. This report shows how the very idea of "war" in the war on terror was fundamentally wrong.
- The dominant discourse on terrorism sought to blame terrorism, especially suicide bombings, on Islam to detract from scrutiny of political realities. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape, the author of Dying to Kill: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, studied over 462 cases of suicide terrorism between 1980 and 2003 and concluded that there was no connection between Islam and suicide terrorism. The overwhelming cause, he found, was occupation by foreign military forces. Another fundamental fact that Bush strategy systematically ignores.
Take Iraq, for example. Islam has existed there for 1400 years and in spite of Saddam Hussein's oppressive regime it spawned no suicide terrorism. It all started only after the US occupation and it is receding now as occupation is replaced by self-governance.
- A majority of victims of terrorism, according to the National Counterterrorism Center (50%-70%), are Muslims. This fact alone undermines a fundamental assumption of the war on terror, that the current crisis is a clash of civilizations between Islam and the West.
Bush administration's response has also led to some disastrous consequences for America. Here are some hard truths:
- America's war in Iraq has made anti-Americanism a dominant feature of the global culture. Things have improved since 2004, but still in a 2007 global survey by BBC, the US was found to have the third most negative standing in the world (after Israel and Iran).
- The war on terror has alienated allies, and undermined US capacity to deal with international crisis as evidenced from our meek responses to a resurgent Russia. The US simply is not able to assert its will overseas anymore.
- The economy has reached its limit. The excessive cost of the Iraq war has handicapped our ability to address effectively the infra-structural, health, housing, educational and energy crises that confront us.
- Under the Bush administration America has become a nation that preaches human rights and practices torture. Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib and the Patriot Act have become our milestones of shame.
But there is some good news:
- Courts in the US are fighting back, restoring civil rights and rejecting the abuse of executive privilege by the current administration.
- The US homeland, thank God, remains safe from terrorist attacks. Terrorists have caused death and destruction but have not achieved any enduring or transformative success anywhere.
- The tide is turning against extremism across the Muslim World as evidenced by Pakistan's return to democracy, the proliferation of fatwas against terrorism and Iraqi Sunni's abandonment of support for al Qaeda and insurgents.
- Relentless failure of policy is awakening Americans to the need for change in policy.
- Even the Republicans, who stood by President Bush in the past, have seen the light. They nominated the most unRepublican Republican as their candidate for President.
This article is a self-critical reflection from an American perspective. My critique of the catastrophic policies of the Bush administration should not be misconstrued as support for extremism in the Muslim world. I have nothing but contempt and loathing for those who kill innocent people for political gains in the name of God or Islam.
In spite of all the damage that G.W. Bush's misguided policies have caused the US, it still remains the best place on earth to live a life of intellectual, spiritual and material pursuits. But, we cannot afford many more years like the last seven.
(Muqtedar Khan is Director of Islamic Studies at the University of Delaware and a Fellow of the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding)
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