Opinion

Peace, Not War
By Air Marshal (Retd.) Ayaz Ahmed Khan
Los Angeles, CA

The fourth Indo-Pakistan war will destroy both the countries. War drums from across the eastern border will force Pakistan to pull out the one hundred thousand Pakistani troops from the North West for war redeployment. India has deployed heavy guns and war equipment at strategic locations. Quick reaction squadrons of the Indian Air Force have been moved to forward airfields including Jaisalmer, Barmer and Bhuj in Rajasthan. Already troops are on the move on the both the sides of the border. Indian leaders are yelling at Pakistan to “dismantle the terror machine”, as if it is under Islamabad’s command and control. Congress President Sonia Gandhi has threatened revenge for the Mumbai carnage. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Foreign Minister Parnab Mukherjee have held two long sessions with the three Service chiefs - Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor, Naval Chief Admiral Suresh Mehta, Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal Fali S Major, Defense Secretary Vijay Singh and Vice Admiral Anil Chopra Director General Coast Guards.
Military action including role of land, sea, air forces and Indian nukes against Pakistan is being debated. Addressing 160 Indian envoys, during the three-day deliberations, Mukherjee warned Pakistan claiming that "the sinister, heinous terror attacks on Mumbai were made by elements from Pakistan. Pakistan must take action against the perpetrators.
India is creating war hysteria with its PM and FM threatening to take “all measures necessary as we deem fit to deal with the situation. THE TERROR MACHINERY in Pakistan has to be dismantled. The international community should use its power to persuade Pakistan to end terrorists.” The three day assembly of all Indian ambassadors from across the world is a grim reminder of December 1971 when Indira Gandhi had summoned Indian envoys before launching an attack on East Pakistan.
The threats of unilateral action and movement of Indian land and air forces into Jammu and Kashmir, Siachin, Punjab and Sind border could lead to the fourth India-Pakistan war, whose consequences Indian leadership must comprehend. With Indian and Pakistani troops deployed eye ball to eye ball on the border, and nuclear warheads zeroed on the cities, buttons wrongly pressed would wipe off Indian and Pakistani cities. Indian leaders must wake up and talk and act with responsibility. The fate of 1.25 citizens of South Asia is hanging in the balance.
    The Statesman (Indian daily) commented that “in a calibrated message to Pakistan PM Manmohan Singh underscored India’s growing impatience with Islamabad’s diversionary tactics. We want Pakistan to make an objective effort to dismantle the terror machine. Pakistan must comply with the UNSC Resolutions. The government of Pakistan knows what it implies. Non-state actors are practicing terrorism aided and abetted by state establishments. The Mumbai terrorist attacks were attacks on India’s ambitions to emerge as an economic power. India would not accept a situation where terrorism is used as an instrument to cripple India’s economy or the values it stands for.”   Statements that Pakistan had a hand in the Mumbai attacks are utterly irresponsible, provocative and unwise. Pakistan wishes India well and cannot allow any foul play against India. President Zardari and the people of Pakistan have not recovered from the grief and shock of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the suicide attacks by terrorists, which have killed thousands of innocent Pakistanis. The government and the people of Pakistan are determined to root out terrorism. But Indian leaders and media are busy in bad mouthing and mischief mongering against Pakistan. Indian media is fuelling the war hysteria. On Friday December 19, 2008, The Times of India commented, “India may still strike at Pakistan.” Quoting Stratfor the American international intelligence Agency it continues: “Strikes on POK (Azad Kashmir) and elsewhere could happen.
“Indian military operations against targets in Pakistan have in fact been prepared, and await signal to go forward. The most likely attack would take the form of unilateral precision strikes inside Pakistan Administered Kashmir, along with Special Forces action on the ground in Pakistan proper. Unlike the massive movement of troops in 2002, during 'Operation Parakram', India’s military preparations this time are more UNDER THE RADAR and not visible to the world at large. The Border Security Force (BSF) has been put on high alert on the Western sector as well as on the eastern sector. But the Indians know that Islamabad has neither the will nor the capability to address their concerns.” This canard must be stopped.
     Times of India comments that “three weeks after the attacks, India has gone out of its way to reassure everyone that it is not thinking of military action on Pakistan. But India continues to tell all its international interlocutors that its patience will not last long, particularly if Islamabad cannot crack down on terrorism. Indian actions thus far have been to build international consensus that attacks were sourced in Pakistan. It has led to a huge spurt in international pressure on Pakistan 'to do more' to combat terrorism. Almost every member of the international community believes that the next attack in India would SEE THE GLOVES COME OFF. But everybody knows that Pakistan’s civilian government is unable to take any steps to curb terrorists and the military establishment is unwilling to do so.” This is a willful canard to malign Pakistan, its government and people. It is provocation considering that the government is doing its very best.
     “From a strategic perspective the Indian government can no more afford to accept the Mumbai attacks and move forward than the US government could have afforded to ignore the 9/11 attacks. New Delhi has little choice, but to respond, regardless of which political party is in power. And because the perpetrators are linked to elements within the Pakistani state, the response must be directed against Pakistan. And if Islamabad will not cooperate in controlling the militants, India will have to take unilateral action. Strikes in Pakistan would not eliminate the terrorist threat, but that would not be the aim of such an operation. India has to communicate firmly that it will no longer tolerate attacks from Pakistan based militants, whether they are rogue or approved by the state. Failure to do so risks emboldening the Islamists and their enablers, as well as a domestic political backlash. The Indian government could not live with either of those outcomes”. This ultimatum for war, front paged by The Times of India, cannot and must not be ignored.
   In a virulent article former Indian Army Chief General V.P. Malik advocates the military option to stop future terrorist attacks. He suggests naval blockade, containment and surgical strikes while building and maintaining international support and countering Pakistan’s military reaction. My assumption is that Indian military plans for surgical strikes - pre-emptive attacks - have been finalized and approved It was in order for General Pervez Ashraf Kiyani, the Pakistan Army Chief, to assure the nation that Pakistan is ready for a fitting response. Surgical strikes mean all-out war.
Wisely the PPP government has maintained its cool, and desires dialogue with India. The Mumbai carnage was a security and intelligence debacle. Both the governments need to address the problem of failed intelligence, and take concrete actions to fix the problem. Instead of the blame game, close cooperation would help. Talk of war and surgical strikes is lunacy, and must be avoided.

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