A Tactical Recipe for Sustained Peace
By Farhana Mohamed, MBA, PhD
Los Angeles, CA
There seems to be no letup in innocent lives being lost as dark shadows of militancy and terrorist attacks continue to loom on Pakistan. According to a Pakistan Security Report (published by the Pak Institute for Peace Studies; PIPS), in 2009 alone, terrorist attacks in Pakistan (including suicide, insurgent, and sectarian) took toll of 3,021 civilian lives. The suicide attacks alone were responsible for the loss of 1,299 lives (43% of the total).
Per PIPS, the terror-related death toll has greatly risen since 2006 when 907 lives were lost compared to 12,632 in 2009. Unfortunately, the brunt of the attacks was borne by the smaller and under-developed North West Frontier Province and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (NWFP & FATA; 56% of the total deaths) and Balochistan (26% of the total).
Last year was significant in the sense that for the first time operational attacks (conducted by the Pakistan security forces against militants) were more coordinated, focused, and almost twice in number compared to those conducted in 2008. The military operations were conducted mostly against the militant Taliban factions in Swat and Malakand Division (Operation Rah-e-Rast) and are still progressing in South Waziristan (Operation Rah-e-Nijat). As a result, 7,492 people (59%, mostly militants) were killed during these operations. Consequently, the government writ was established in Swat and Malakand Division. The South Waziristan offensive (already in progress) has resulted in heavy terrorist casualties and capture of some of the key Al Qaeda and local Taliban militants. The militants in response grouped and selected soft targets and killed over 3,000 innocent civilians, especially women and children.
Alarmingly, Pakistani civilian casualties were higher (3,021) than the Afghan civilian death toll of 2412 in 2009 (LA Times, January 14, 2009). This is surprising since compared to its south-eastern neighbor, Afghanistan is plagued with a much higher rate of lawlessness and a visible lack of governance in many areas while embroiled in the arduous War on Terror involving NATO and Afghan military forces.
As a positive note for the first time, in Pakistan, public opinion has mostly turned against the militants. In Swat Valley, the Tehrik-e-Taliban of Pakistan (TTP) faction faced wrath from not only the indigenous population but also from all shades and hues of Pakistanis. The main reason being TTP during their negotiations with the government violated the Nizam-e-Adal tenets (something they lobbied for implementation). In addition, for almost three years, TTP resorted to tactics of intimidation and coercion of local population by conducting indiscriminate murders, publicly humiliating men and women, and gutting down schools, especially those for girls.
However, are these military operations (even if they resulted in some success) the answer? While it is important to take definitive military action to stop the militant onslaught, this war (especially on long term) cannot be won by military force alone. To stop this vicious cycle of tragic loss of civilian and Pak military lives, there has to be a multi-prong approach. One of the most effective strategies will be to create awareness and desire in the general public to counter terrorist activities where they can effectively isolate the militants. This can be achieved by refusing to provide militants with any damaging information, turning them into authorities and, most importantly, resisting to provide recruits for the booming business of “young suicide bombers for hire.” Of course, this cannot be achieved unless proper safeguards, incentives and rewards are provided to the poverty-stricken population.
In this regard, ADKAR (acronym for awareness, desire, knowledge, ability and reinforcement; a simple model of change developed by Jeffrey Hiatt) can be helpful in making civil society the willing participants. The ADKAR model has been successfully used by governments to bring change in masses by raising awareness and inculcating desire for change. This tool for change is the result of smooth cohesion of various effective change strategies. This strategy has been partly applied in Pakistan. For instance, understanding the importance of public awareness, General Ashfaq Kiyani, Pak Chief of Army Staff, ordered air dropping of leaflets in South Waziristan at the onset of Operation Rah-e-Nijat. The flyers stated that the operation was not against a certain tribe or clan but was directed against local and foreign terrorists who were there to commit heinous crimes against humanity.
The importance to win the hearts and minds of public is evident by the significant success achieved by the Pakistan Army operations in Swat and South Waziristan when compared to excruciating eight- to nine-year long war waged by the Western forces in Afghanistan and Iraq with no end in sight, especially in Afghanistan.
The objective of all the stakeholders (government, military, civilians, politicians, and the United States) appears more or less the same as they all want to free Pakistan from the scourge of terror. Despite that, there appears to be a lot of mistrust and hopelessness in public and politicians about government not being serious in tackling the grave crisis, working in isolation, and taking orders from the White House. While this was probably true in the previous era of the dictator, current government has popular mandate. It can wisely decide to work closely with the parliament to effectively mold public opinion in support of its counter-terrorism policies.
While the Pakistan Army has formidable knowledge and ability to exterminate the militants, this can only provide a short-term solution. The long-term solution is for the civilians and their elected representatives to buy-in the overnment’s counter-terrorism policies through healthy debate. It is of utmost importance for the government of Pakistan to raise awareness and hence desire in the masses, especially those belonging to NWFP and Balochistan, by building bridges among different groups of thoughts, providing quality education and training, building infrastructure for sustained employment, and focusing on uplifting almost Stone Age living conditions of the poor. Since the Obama Administration also considers investing in human development as the long-term solution of combating terrorism, a similar effective strategy by Pakistan will result in an enduring partnership while respecting Pakistan’s sovereignty. This is the Jihad that needs to be waged by Pakistan to survive and prosper.
