Rich in Floods, Poor in Water
By Farhana Mohamed, MBA, PhD
Los Angeles , CA
Pakistan has in its northern territory spectacular Karakoram mountain ranges as well as the world’s second highest and second most treacherous mountain peak, K2. The 2,000-mile long Indus River is also located in Pakistan. It originates from Tibet in the north and, after traversing through Indian-Occupied Kashmir and flowing down towards south, finally drains into the Arabian Sea in Sindh.
This may give the false perception that since Pakistan is home to long stretches of breathtaking snow-capped mountains and mighty Indus, there is a great surplus of water in the country. Actually, Pakistan is not only overly-dependent on drawing water from the Indus and its seven tributaries, but also has extremely insufficient number of reservoirs and dams to save water on long-term basis as well as utilize the hydropower to generate electricity.
The devastating floods of late July resulting from torrential rains and melting glaciers, which wreaked havoc throughout Pakistan, could have been neutralized to some extent had there been sufficient dams, barrages, and functional irrigation projects. On top of that, India is doing its “best” to over-stretch the Indus Water Treaty (brokered by the World Bank in 1960) to its advantage by building many hydro-projects upstream to eventually reduce Pakistan’s share downstream.
According to the Indus Water Treaty, neither India nor Pakistan is allowed to construct storage works beyond the specified capacity or allowed to divert water flow from one tributary to another. However, India has been doing just that to varying degrees from 1994 to present for its Kishanganga Project, Wullar Barrage, Baglihar Hydroelectric Project, and several others. On several occasions, Pakistan requested international neutral experts to intervene. Limited success was obtained to address some concerns but for most part India has not abandoned its relentless pursuit to continue to build hydropower plants and barrages on shared eastern and western rivers in the north. Currently, Pakistan is proceeding to court of arbitration to resolve the dispute over the Kishanganga Project. This project will provide a significant drop in downstream flow and power generation capacity at Neelam-Jhelum Dam in Azad Kashmir. Subrahmanyam Sridhar, an Indian author, believes that “water sharing will take a politically charged dynamic and may even replace Kashmir as the primary source of conflict between India and Pakistan.”
On October 4, 2010, renowned journalist, commentator, and author, Steven Solomon addressed the general session of the world’s “largest water show” (organized by Water Environment Federation and attended by 17,500 water professionals) in New Orleans, Louisiana. In his presentation and in an Op-Ed section in the New York Times (Drowning Today, Parched Tomorrow, New York Times, August 15, 2010), he did not shy away about making objective comments favoring Pakistan, referring the nation as “a critical ally of US,” and reminding the catastrophe it was facing due to the recent floods. In addition, he alluded to the fact that the melting glaciers in Pakistan are depleting its rivers downstream, its tube wells are drying, and a mere 30-day storage capacity means another disaster is looming in the horizon if something is not done soon. He said that climate change in the 21st century may classify nations as “water-have and have-nots.” He then related to China, India, and Pakistan as the three giants who by 2020-2025 will most likely be facing similar scarcity of water which may escalate friction amongst them.
Steven Solomon pointed out that since “Pakistan draws 50% of its water supply from Himalayas ...untimely dam-filling by India during planting season could destroy Pakistan’s harvest” and “Pakistan, downriver and militarily weaker than India, understandably regards its dams’ cumulative one-month storage capacity as potentially lethal new water weapon in India’s arsenal.” Therefore, India is accused of “water-terrorism” by Pakistanis. Impressed by Steven Solomon’s objective assessment of the current critical situation faced by Pakistan, I personally thanked him during his book-signing ceremony (Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization, HarperCollins, 2010). He also mentioned to me that due to his objective and empathetic viewpoint toward Pakistan, he received several negative e-mails after his NY Times article was published back in August.
So what is Pakistan doing to address the water shortage crisis? According to Pakistan’s Minister for Water & Power Raja Pervaiz Ashraf’s statement in the National Assembly on October 8, after (past governments) wasting Rs.1.49 billion (about $15 million) on assessment of Kalabagh Dam, the present government is working on non-controversial projects such as Diamer-Bhasha Dam. According to Wikipedia, Bhasha Dam is the world’s highest Roller Compacted Concrete Dam with gross storage capacity of 8.1 million acre feet and power capacity of 4,500 MW; it will cost about $12.6 billion. The construction is set to begin soon and may take about seven years to complete. To give due credit, the Bhasha Dam project was actually kick-started during the later part of Musharraf era but the project languished due to political strife and uncertain financing. Raja Ashraf also admitted that there was a huge gap between installed capacity and power generation in Pakistan.
Therefore, more emphasis is warranted for building additional water reservoirs and fossil power plants on fast track. This is likely to happen since with the current renewed American interest in reviving the Pakistani economy, water projects are being given high preference. For instance, the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, during her July visit to Pakistan, announced $500 million major infrastructure projects including two hydropower dams and 13 irrigation and municipal water projects. As Steven Solomon rightfully points out, “We’ve (Americans) again reached the point where national security and benevolence align.”
With the foreign dollars flowing in for rebuilding the flood-affected infrastructure and addressing grave water scarcity, Pakistan can spearhead languishing hydro projects, build roads, promote education, and generate jobs to alleviate poverty and curb militancy. By using the development funds transparently and strategically, Pakistan has a unique opportunity to jumpstart its economy and get back once again on the path of economic development as it briefly did in the sixties when its development model was highly emulated by several of today’s young developed nations.
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