Will Peace Return to Iraq?
By Syed Muazzem Ali
Former Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh
San Diego , CA
President Obama last Tuesday, in his second address to the nation from the Oval office, announced the end of US Combat operations in Iraq and stressed that henceforth the Iraqi Government would be taking charge of their country. There was neither any claim of victory nor signs of “mission accomplished” anywhere.
The invasion of Iraq, undertaken by his predecessor George W Bush on the basis of some flawed intelligence in 2003, has already cost the Americans a staggering US $747 billion. Thousands of American soldiers have died and hundreds of thousands have been injured. Millions of Iraqis have suffered. Saddam and his autocratic regime have been removed; nonetheless the US pledge to establish democracy in Iraq is still a far cry.
Obama, as a Senator from Illinois, had been a vocal opponent of the Iraq war and had made categorical commitment to withdraw all troops from Iraq. While making his latest announcement, he noted the sharp difference that he had with his predecessor on the Iraq war. He, however, spoke to Bush before announcing the end of the combat operation.
Incidentally, Bush had also reached an agreement with the Iraqi government about the withdrawal of all US troops from Iraq by the end of 2011. Obama has hastened the pace primarily to appease the opponents of the war, particularly from his own party, and also to get political mileage just months before the US mid-term elections. Under the new agreement, fifty thousand American troops will remain in Iraq to assist the Iraqi government, while the rest of the 140,000 troops will be withdrawn from Iraq. But these fifty thousand troops are not really non-combat troops as was originally planned; they are fully armed soldiers.
Obama also reassured his party members who were frustrated with the Iraqi war that it was time to move on. ”As we do. I am mindful that the Iraq war has been a contentious issue at home. Here too it is time to turn the page …The greatness of our democracy is grounded in our ability to move beyond our differences, and to learn from our experience as we confront the many challenges ahead. And no challenge is more essential than our fight against al Qaeda.” In other words, Obama in his subdued speech also made his people aware that America was shifting its combat operations from Iraq to Afghanistan,
Obama also spoke about the very slow economic recovery that has dogged his presidency so far. With barely two months before the polls, the President reiterated that the current economic woes were largely due to neglect of the last decade in shoring up the foundation of their prosperity. Furthermore, US has spent nearly a trillion dollars on Iraq war often by borrowing from abroad which, in turn, short changed investments and created record deficit. Whether the American voters would accept his assertions, only the results of the upcoming midterm elections will tell. The Republicans are also stepping up their attacks on his presidency.
Will the end of US combat operations bring peace in Iraq? Well, a lot depends on the Iraqi leadership. With lots of fanfare and high expectations the national parliamentary elections were held last March, but the results were inconclusive as no group/coalition could master simple majority in the 325-member Iraqi Parliament. The two main coalitions, namely, broad-based Iraqi national alliance led by former Premier Ayad Alawi, won 91 seats while the ruling State of Law coalition led by incumbent Nouri al Maliki got 89 seats. The third coalition got 70 seats while the regional Kurdish alliance got 40 seats. Alawi claimed that since his coalition is supported by both Shias and Sunnis and since they got the highest number of seats, they should be given the first option to form the government but Maliki refused to concede.
Since then Iraq has been going through a political vacuum. The contending parties have been negotiating for the last five months to form a coalition government without results. Obama had sent Vice-President Joe Biden to Baghdad a number of times to help the Iraqi leadership come out of the deadlock. In fact, Biden was in Baghdad as Obama was making the historic declaration, and he too was hopeful that the Iraqi leadership would be able to reach an agreement soon.
Iraq is a deeply divided country and the ethnic and religious divides create the natural conditions for conflict. The minority Sunnis have ruled over the majority Shias and persecuted the ethnic Kurds during the Saddam rule. Now that the Shias are tasting power for the first time, and the Kurds are enjoying a great deal of autonomy, it is rather difficult to reach a political accommodation of all parties. However, it is also true that in order to have a viable government it is necessary to get the support of the Sunnis who still enjoy great deal of political clout.
Given this delicate political balance, analysts are apprehensive that the security situation in Iraq could fast deteriorate after the Americans leave. Even last week at least 53 people were killed and hundreds were wounded by a dozen coordinated car bombings in 10 cities and towns across the country. They are not sure whether the Iraqi forces have the capability at this stage to face the insurgents without the American support. Some optimists, however, believe the foreign occupation has aggravated the existing divides and, if the Iraqis are left alone, they would be able to come out of this ordeal.
The future of Iraq is, therefore, at crossroads: either the political leadership will reach a political accommodation and form a broad-based government and collectively face the challenges ahead, or the extremists will take advantage of the existing political void to intensify their attacks leading to dangerous sectarian conflicts and possibly even partition of the country along religious and ethnic divides. Reaching a political accommodation is a tall order in a deeply divided country like Iraq but the alternative is surely far grimmer. Obama has named the new phase in Iraq “Operation New Dawn”, but only thing certain at this stage is that Iraq faces great uncertainty.
