Resilient Pakistan Defies Doomsayers
By Riaz Haq
CA
Pakistanis are no strangers to the oft-repeated apocalyptic forecasts of imminent collapse of their nation that have been regularly dished out by many Western leaders, leading analysts and mainstream media over the years. The 2009 Swat Valley insurgency and 2010 summer floods sent these pessimist pundits in overdrive yet again as the images of the victims of these crises were widely distributed and discussed at length.
Let's briefly review the hysteric predictions about Pakistan's imminent fall made in the last two years:
Swat Valley Taliban Insurgency 2009
It was early 2009 when the Taliban appeared to be in control of Pakistan's Swat Valley and the US politicians and media were deeply concerned about the insurgents closing in on Islamabad.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that Pakistan was “abdicating to the Taliban”. Various Western commentators and pundits went further by predicting Pakistan's "imminent collapse" and the usual foreign policy rags chimed in with their shrill talk of Pakistan as a "failed state".
"We're now reaching the point where within one to six months we could see the collapse of the Pakistani state, also because of the global financial crisis, which just exacerbates all these problems. . . The collapse of Pakistan, al-Qaeda acquiring nuclear weapons, an extremist takeover -- that would dwarf everything we've seen in the war on terror today", said David Kilcullen, George W. Bush's Iraq adviser, on the eve of the Pakistan Day in 2009.
Others, such as Shahan Mufti of the Global Post, argued that Pakistan was dying a slow death with each act of terrorism on its soil.
Devastating Summer Floods of 2010
As the massive floods inundated large swathes of Pakistan's rural landscape in summer of 2010, the Western media fretted yet again that the natural disaster "could spark political unrest that could destabilize the government".
Experts cautioned that "the state itself could collapse, as hunger and destitution trigger explosions of popular anger". As the water began to recede, there was more doom and gloom about spread of epidemics like cholera and dysentery.
Pakistanis' Response to Swat Violence and Nationwide Floods
We are now in 2011 and Pakistanis have demonstrated their extraordinary resilience in defying dire predictions of "imminent collapse" in 2009 and 2010.
Pakistani military has cleared Swat region of the Taliban. Millions of refugees have returned home to resume normal life.
Businesses and schools are open and the hills are alive with the sound of music and entertainment. Swat's Malam Jabba ski resort is open for business and visitors to the beautiful valley are struck by the extraordinary resilience of the people who were forced by Taliban insurgents to flee by the millions amid dire predictions of the imminent collapse of Pakistani state in early 2009.
In 2010, Pakistani military led the rescue and relief operations in the flood zones, followed by civilian officials of Pakistan's National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) and many local and foreign NGOs. And seven months after the onset of the floods, only 160,000 of the original three million refugees remain in camps, mostly in Sindh province which was the last to be hit by raging waters. The worst fears expressed in summer of 2010 have not materialized. Pakistani state has not collapsed, nor have the predicted second wave of deaths in the camps for the millions of internally displaced persons. None of the predicted epidemics (such as cholera and diarrhea) took place. While some of the affected have had to deal with malnutrition which is chronic in some rural areas, Pakistan has managed to stave off the worst of the expected food insecurity.
Life is returning to normal in the rural areas and the rural economy is showing signs of strength. The transfer of additional Rs. 300 billion to Pakistan's agriculture sector during the current fiscal year 2010-2011 by higher prices of agriculture produce and direct flood compensation is boosting economic confidence in the countryside. It is already generating rural demand for tractors and consumer items including fans, TVs, motorcycles, cars, refrigerators, etc.
Technology to the Rescue
In an unprecedented branchless banking operation mobilized for the flood victims by EasyPaisa and UBL-Omni, the Pakistani state has given away Rs. 28.6 billion to 1.483 million affected families using one of the world's largest biometric databases maintained by the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA). Each family received a cash card (called Watan card) through NADRA loaded with Rs.20,000 for its recovery. With over 83 million registered citizens so far, the NADRA tech network is now used for everything from getting a passport to paying utility bills.
Several organizations used mobile phones in innovative ways unrelated to branchless banking during the floods. Ushahidi, an open source project that allows users to crowd source crisis information via mobile, set up pakreport.org, a mapping service that enabled anyone in the country to text information about the flood. Information was collated and made available to the emergency services and disaster response organizations and NGOs via a web-based interface.
Conclusion
Pakistan continues to face major problems as it deals with the violent Taliban insurgency and multiple crises of stagnant economy, scarcity of energy and lack of security. The recent assassinations of the ruling PPP party leaders Salman Taseer and Shahbaz Bhatti are a reminder of the daunting challenge posed by the violent religious fanatics. The bumbling political leadership is incompetent and corrupt. However, what the prophets of doom and gloom often discount are key factors that keep the nation going, including the resilience of Pakistan's people, the extraordinary capabilities of its large and growing urban middle class, and the stabilizing influence of its powerful military. Pakistan is just too big to fail. I fully expect Pakistan to survive the current crises, and then begin to thrive again in the near future.
