Myanmar: Will Good Elections Lead to Good Democracy?
By Syed Muazzem Ali
San Diego, CA
After years of slumber, Myanmar has sprung into action, moving at a fast pace to restore democracy in the country and to come out of international isolation. The two political characters at center stage of the current political reconciliation process in our next-door neighbor are Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been fighting for the restoration of democracy in her country for the last two decades, and the country’s military President Thein Sein, who took over the rein of the country just a year ago.
It may be recalled that Suu Kyi and her party had boycotted the general elections held in November 2010, saying that it was unfair and undemocratic. When former General and outgoing Prime Minister Thein Sein became President five months later, he set in motion major political reforms to change the political landscape of the country after five decades of repressive military rule.
In order to remove the objections of Suu Kyi and her party National League for Democracy (NLD), the election laws were amended to pave the way for their participation in the by-elections. The by-elections held on 1 April has been termed free and fair by both local and international observers, and it is already an important milestone in the country’s quest for democracy.
Suu Kyi and her NLD secured 43 out of 45 by-election seats, and have thus emerged as the main opposition party in the Myanmar Parliament. The military, however, still maintains its overwhelming power, and the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has nearly three quarters majority in both the houses. The newly elected opposition leader and her party are scheduled to join the Parliament when it convenes on 23 April. The crucial thing to watch is whether the majority party takes into account the views of the minority while taking decisions on national issues. This would indicate the future of democracy in the country.
The United States and the Western countries that had been boycotting the repressive military regimes for decades have positively responded to the reform process initiated by Thein Sein, including release of political prisoners, easing of media restrictions, and amendments of the election law to ensure greater participation of all parties in the election.
Surely, the political reforms are of prime importance to Western countries, but what attracts them most is that Thein Sein has taken important steps to open up Myanmar’s socialist economy to greater foreign trade and investment. He has clearly signaled his intention to pull back from the orbit of China and to rebuild his economy with the help of foreign investments after decades of stagnation, mismanagement and isolation. Japan’s second largest bank, Mizuho Corporate Bank, has already opened its office in Myanmar, and the largest passenger carrier, Nippon Airways, is resuming its regular flights to Myanmar after 12 years. The Western traders and investors are coming in large numbers to establish closer ties with this resource-rich nation. The country is aiming to set up a security exchange with the help of Tokyo Stock Exchange and Daiwa Securities Group in 2015. The country’s economy is expected to grow by about 8.8% this year and Myanmar seems to be keen to catch up with its other ASEAN neighbors.
In view of these dramatic changes, some Western media are calling Thein Sein the Mikhail Gorbachev of Myanmar. It is somewhat perplexing though, that Thein Sein, who until recently was the Prime Minister and the right-hand man of a much-feared dictator, could change to become a political reformist and, more importantly, the repressive military leadership has given him such a free hand to chip away their power base.
Political analysts who have been watching his rise, however, note that Thein Sein, 66, has been significantly different from his fellow Generals who have been ruling the country with an iron hand after crushing the popular uprising in 1988. He is bookish, less ruthless, and free of corruption. Unlike his repressive predecessors, he and his family lead a simple life and avoid the ostentatious show of wealth.
It is his sincerity and humility that persuaded Suu Kyi to re-enter politics last year. That proved to be the crucial turning point, and changed the position of the President at home and, more importantly, brought him closer to Washington and its Western allies who have been imposing international sanctions. While taking note of these positive moves, observers are also conscious of his past association with various ruthless measures, and would like to watch his actions in the coming months before pronouncing their views on him.
In a dramatic gesture, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton undertook a historic visit to Myanmar last December — the most senior US official to visit the country in 50 years. She met the Myanmar President and Suu Kyi and expressed her hope that there would be “no turning back” from the road to democracy.
The recent election is also a personal triumph of 66-year old Suu Kyi who has been the living embodiment of her country’s long quest for democracy. The small lady with big determination had been in detention for 15 of the past 22 years, but had defied her country’s authoritarian military regimes with quiet demeanor and grace. Even in her victory she has urged her supporters to exercise restraint and not to gloat.
Before taking her seat in the parliament for the first time, she went to the capital, Naypyitaw, to meet the President and to discuss “democratization process, parliamentary affairs and resumption of peace negotiations” with various ethnic rebel groups. As per press reports, there is a minor problem as Suu Kyi and her party are demanding that, in line with the changes in the election law, the text of the oath for the MPs, as stipulated in the constitution, should be amended to read “respecting” instead of “safeguarding” the constitution, so that they could take the oath and join the forthcoming session of the parliament. Hopefully this problem will be amicably settled.
The political reconciliation efforts in Myanmar is being closely watched by US Senator Jim Webb, who is the point person of the Obama administration to engage Myanmar’s former military regime. Senator Webb, in a recent statement, praised Suu Kyi and Thein Sein, and said that “the movement toward reconciliation is propelled by the courage of two people who could not be more different in their backgrounds, their life experiences. … (They) started from very different points in their lives, have different life journeys, but joined together to resolve to set aside their differences for the good of the society.”
The Senator also met the Myanmar President and his cabinet members in Naypyitaw last week and told reporters that Myanmar was at a “profound moment.” He is also expected to meet and brief the policy-makers in Washington to take note of these positive changes, and to extend some “incentive” for “future change.” He has already shown the carrot to the Myanmar leadership when he said that Washington would look forward to a time when “full economic and diplomatic relations” could be established between the two countries.
Myanmar’s former colonial ruler Britain has also positively responded to the important developments in the country, and Prime Minister David Cameron has just started his historic visit to Myanmar. He is scheduled to meet President Thein Sein and Suu Kyi, and if the authorities can convince him that the reform would continue, then Britain and 27- member EU would agree to a “substantial relaxation of sanctions.” The EU has already lifted some restrictions against the regime this year, and the Foreign Ministers will decide the next steps when they meet on 23 April. Britain is very keen to restore and expand her ties with this country rich in resources.
The UN Security Council has also welcomed the recent by-elections in Myanmar, and its current president, the US Permanent Representative Susan Rice, has underscored the opportunity which it has opened for more “inclusive political dialogue.” The Council members would like to see that the Government resumes dialogue with the rebels in the northern Kachin state.
In summation, the by-election has brought in a metamorphic change in Myanmar’s political scenario, and there are clear signs of willingness by Washington, London and other Western countries to restore cooperation with them, provided things go well in the coming months. A good election surely augurs well to establish democracy but it is only the beginning, not an end in itself. The coming parliamentary deliberations would be a litmus test for democracy in Myanmar.
The important changes in Myanmar have created highly conducive condition for the resumption of Bangladesh’s all-round bilateral cooperation with Myanmar. We have multitude of interest with them, and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit last December was indeed both timely and fruitful. Energy-hungry Bangladesh surely needs to establish cooperative ties with the oil and gas rich Myanmar.
The recent verdict by the International Tribunal has brought an end to our longstanding maritime boundary dispute with them, but for its implementation we surely need their cooperation. We also need their cooperation for the early repatriation of the Rohingya refugees. Myanmar is our gateway to China and the South East Asia, and hence it occupies a vital position in our quest to emerge as the communication hub of the region and beyond. Bangladesh and Myanmar are members of the regional group BIMSTEC and we should intensify our efforts to make it more effective.
Our diplomatic representation in Myanmar must be elevated and strengthened. It may be recalled that Bangabandhu, in consideration of the importance of our bilateral relations with Myanmar, had sent our senior-most career diplomats K.M. Kaiser and S.A. Karim to head our mission in Yangon in 1972 and 1974 respectively. Time is of essence here, and the sooner we act to strengthen and intensify all-round bilateral cooperation with our resource-rich neighbor, the better we do. (Syed Muazzem Ali is a former Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh)
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