Syria Sliding into Chaos
By Air Marshal (Retd.) Ayaz Ahmed Khan
Former Pakistan Ambassador to Syria
Los Angeles, CA
The slaughter of eighteen thousand citizens and mounting atrocities in the past 16 months have given rise to protests and armed resistance led by the Free Syrian Army. The regime responded by bombing public rallies and cities, which has forced one hundred and fifty thousand Syrian citizens to flee to Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon. Free Syrian Army – FSA - is now confronting the Syrian Army across Syria.
Armed with light weapons the FSA has fought extended battles in all cities including Damascus and Allepo. It overran and occupied several military posts along Turkish and Iraqi borders. The clashes in Damascus and Allepo in two weeks, and the death of six top Syrian Generals and cabinet ministers at the National Security HQ’s in remote controlled FSA bombing, is a turning point in the struggle of the Syrian people to end twelve years of Bashar al Assads fascist rule.
In a joint press conference in Moscow with President Validimir Putin, Mr Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, condemned the Syrian regime for killing its own people. The launching of “Operation Damascus Volcano and Earthquake of Syria” on July 16, and the three weeks of battles are “to avenge the massacres of unarmed civilians.” The FSA has described the ongoing operation as “the first strategic step towards bringing Syria into a state of complete and total civil disobedience.”
The regime forces had launched a powerful counter offensive to regain control of Midan, Qaboun, Jobar (east), Kafar, Sousse(southwest) Tadamoun (south), Barze, Roukneddine (north), and Mazze, where the Pakistan Embassy is located. Intense fighting took place in Kafar Sousse and Daraya, south and west of Damascus. The army entered Shebaa, a suburb of the capital, after aerial bombing. Heavy clashes are taking place in Aleppo, the commercial hub of Syria. The FSA controlled city of Homs, has been repeatedly bombed from the air, shelled by army tanks and artillery, causing heavy casualties and massive destruction.
The attack on the National Security Headquarter in Damascus killed Syrian Defense Minister General Daoud Rajha, President Bashar al Assad’s brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, chief of the National Crisis Cell General Hasan Turkmani, Interior Minister Mohammad al Shaar, General Hisham Bakhtiyar, the Chief of the National Security and General Mohammad Saeed al Khitan. President’s brother-in-law Assef Shawkat was the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Syrian Armed Forces, and the most feared man after the President. He oversaw military operations to crush the insurgency. He is responsible for the destruction of dozens of cities and genocide of the Sunni population. Killing of his brother-in- law is a very personal blow for the Syrian President and the people of Syria should expect the worst form of reprisals. Sadly, the Syrian regime kills its own people without the slightest remorse.
With the senior members of Assad’s inner circle killed by the FSA, the civil war in Syria has turned into an inferno of revenge against the unarmed population. The Syrian military has brought massive reinforcements of troops, tanks, APC’s and gunship helicopters into Damascus and Allepo. President’s Guard Division has been pushed into the battle. The Yarmuk Palestinian refugee camp with three hundred thousand refugees is being bombed. The civil war has intensified, but the end in not clear.
A Syrian security official said that the bombing in the National Security HQ was carried out by a bodyguard of one of the cabinet ministers or Security Chiefs attending the meeting. The attacker left an explosive belt in the conference room and detonated it by remote control. It clearly was an insider’s work. President Assad immediately appointed General Fahd al Freij as the new defense minister. General Fahd announced retaliatory reprisals.
Meanwhile, Kofi Annan’s meeting with Russian President Valadimir Putin has been futile. Valadimir has supported the Assad regime and remains oblivious of the massacres of unarmed Syrian men, women and children by the Syrian Army and the brutal Shabiha. Russia is the major supplier of weapons to the Syrian Army, Air Force and Navy. Latakiya deep water port on the Mediterranean is a major base of the Russian Navy. Russia has a stake in the survival of the Assad regime, and will continue moral and material support of the Assad regime.
Syria’s civil war has become chaotic. The uprising has morphed from a peaceful protest movement seeking political change into an armed insurgency seeking to topple the regime by force. UN and International diplomacy has failed to stop the violence, and world powers remain deeply divided over who is responsible, and how to stop the carnage. The United States, Western nations and Arab governments have called on Assad to quit. Moscow, Beijing and Tehran support Bashar al Assad. These pro-regime countries have no interest in the safety and survival of the Syrian masses. Hillary Clinton the US Secretary of State is the foremost critic of the Assad regime and advocates regime change. The Syrian conflict crossed an important symbolic threshold with the international Red Cross formally declaring it a civil war, a status with implications for potential war crime prosecutions of President Assad and his cohorts.
The intensity and duration of battles between the Army and the FSA, and the fact that the Bashar al Asad Baathist regime has threatened to use chemical weapons to crush the people’s resistance is indicative of the regime’s desperation.
The Syrian Arab Army is behind Assad. The half million strong Army has 220,000 regular troops and 280,000 reserves. The Army has three corps, eight armored divisions, one independent armored brigade, and three mechanized divisions.
The Army is adept at killing and torturing the unarmed Syrian masses. In April 1982, I myself and the Ambassador of Turkey were witness to the destruction of the city of Hama and the massacre of forty thousand citizens. Hama has been destroyed again by the Syrian Army. In April 1982 Syrian Army soldiers tried to kidnap some Sunni girls in Hama. Local youths prevented the kidnapping. The Syrian soldiers returned to kidnap the girls. In the ensuing fight the soldiers were killed. The city was surrounded by artillery regiments, an armored brigade and was pounded for two weeks. The Syrian Air Force bombed the city of Hama for the same period of time. This bombardment led to the death of an estimated forty thousand citizens. The Turkish Ambassador had passed through the city two days after the massacre. He saw dead bodies everywhere. The stench of the dead filled the air. Turks are brave people and do not shed tears. But the Turkish Ambassador was overwhelmed and narrated the sad story with tears in his eyes.
The world, especially the Arab and the Muslim world, has remained a mere spectator at the gruesome carnage in Syria. The West has extended moral support only. The Islamic world, including the government and the people of Pakistan, has yet to express a word of remorse. The Pakistani media is silent at the death drama in Syria. The Syrian peoples resistance has got organized in the shape of the Free Syrian Army of 40,000 fighters, comprising a large number of army officers including 22 generals, 25 brigadiers and dozens of colonels , who have defected from the army. With the motto VICTORY OR DEATH, the FSA is a committed force, but is small and inadequately equipped to fight the Syrian Army. Some of the best Syrian Army officers have joined the ranks 0f the Free Syrian Army. These include Colonel Riad al-Asad-Commander-in-Chief;Colonel Malik Kurdi, Deputy C-in-C; Colonel Ahmed Hijazi, Chief of Staff; and Colonel Mustafa al-Shiekh, Head of the Military Council. FSA spokesman Colonel Riad-al-Asad announced that the Free Syrian Army would work with demonstrators to bring down the system. Riad al-Asaad has stated that the Free Syrian Army has no political goals except the removal of President Bashar Assad’s government. The FSA has claimed that the conflict is not sectarian, that they have in their ranks Alawi’s soldiers and officers who oppose the government, and that there will be no reprisals if it falls. On 23 September 2011, the Free Syrian Army merged with the Free Officers Movement (Harakat al- ḍ ubba ṭ al-aħrar) and became the main opposition army group. A total of 40,000 FSA fighters are motivated, but, this small number is no match for the half million strong Syrian Army.
The Free Syria Forces are active in the northwest (Idlib, Aleppo), the central region (Homs, Hama, and Rastan), the coast around Latakia, the south (Deraa and Houran), the east (Dayr al-Zawr, Abu Kamal), and the Damascus area. The largest concentration of FSA forces is in the central region (Homs, Hama, and surrounding towns), with nine or more active battalions. The Free Syrian Army has been fighting a guerilla war as it does not have the resources to occupy and take control of territories. It relies primarily on hit-and-run attacks to force the Syrian army into withdrawing. The people of Syria are likely to suffer from the reprisals being unleashed by the regular Army and by Gestapo Shabiha.
President Bashar-al-Assad is well entrenched, is supported by the Syrian elite, the Syrian Armed Forces, Russia and China the two super/major powers and by Shiite Iran. Tehran is committed to perpetuate the Assad regime by material support, including Iranian troops fighting alongside the Syrian Army. Israel is keeping a sharp eye on the developments in Syria, and is likely to intervene and stop the transfer of missiles and chemical weapons to Hizbollah if the Assad regime goes under. The Syrian regime under Bashar al Assad and his father President Hafez al Assad has been a fascist dictatorship for over four decades. With the anti-people mindset of the Syrian President, Baath Party leaders and the Loyalist Military, this vicious mindset of the regime is not likely to change. Syria is sliding towards disaster. In the short run Syria’s future is bleak. This unfortunate country is heading towards full-fledged civil war, in which Syrian people will continue to die and suffer.
