Where Are the Women?
By Dr Syed Amir
Bethesda, MD
A potentially troubling and unprecedented demographic imbalance seems to be emerging in some Asian countries: shortage of females and surfeit of older population. A study undertaken by Indian scientists and published in the British Medical Journal, the Lancet, indicates that in India there are seven million fewer girls than boys under the age of six. In other words, there are only 914 girls versus 1000 boys. If the present trend continues, by the year 2020, there would be millions of young males with scant prospect of finding a bride.
The disparity is not caused by some natural or physiological quirk. Ironically, it results from the vile practice of selective abortions of female fetuses. The authors of the study have estimated that, based on the census data collected from 1991 to 2011, during the past thirty years, the number of female fetuses aborted in India may have reached a staggering number of 12 million.
It would be tempting to believe that the feticide practice is restricted to poor, uneducated classes. Paradoxically, the opposite is true. It is more common among the affluent, educated families, especially those who already had had a girl as their first child. Selective abortions have now become feasible, because of the availability of modern screening techniques, such as ultrasound, to determine the sex of the baby in uterus. However, only the rich can afford to pay doctors to perform prenatal screening. Such screenings were disallowed by the Government in 1996, but apparently the ban has been ineffective.
India is not the only country threatened with a potential shortfall of females. South Korea, Taiwan, and especially China are facing similar problems. In China, the one-child policy, enforced by the Government, has only exacerbated the gender gap. A recent study found that there was a surplus of boys of reproductive age; their number exceeding that of girls by some 32 million. The gender disparity in China could be traced back to 1986, when prenatal ultrasound scans first became available.
The parental preference for boys in some Eastern countries is rooted in ancient social and cultural mores. According to Hindu customs, the last rites of the diseased can only be performed by the eldest son. Furthermore, sons much like an insurance policy, are expected to take care of the parents in old age. Another problem is the insidious dowry system, which the bride’s parents are obliged to offer to the groom as a prerequisite for marriage agreement. Although women have made much progress in many fields, education, employment and politics, their overall status still remains subservient to men. These problems are endemic, spreading across religious and ethnic spectrum.
Social scientists worry that the gender disparity, if left unchecked, would lead to societal upheavals. A large number of young, single males, having no stable family structure tend to become violent and predatory, disrupting the communal order. Other undesirable vices, such as trafficking in women and prostitution often follow.
Another emerging problem is the disproportionate growth of the elderly population, especially in countries where the overall population is either stable or declining. Currently worldwide, there are as many people under the age of 28 as above it. However, it is estimated that by the year 2018, for the first time in history, there will be more people above 65 than under five. With the arrival of the modern medicine, introduction of antibiotics and immunization methods, human life span has increased substantially during the past century. Consequently, a larger number of people are reaching old age than they did before. Also, as prosperity, educational levels and standard of living improve, couples elect to have fewer babies. Professional women with independent incomes and careers often decide to marry late or in some cases not at all.
In the olden days, not many people lived into seventies or eighties, but when they did, they were commonly supported by a number of younger family members. Alternatively, Governments in rich countries would offer a variety of social programs, such as old-age pensions, free medical and nursing home care for older people, all paid for by taxes collected from the younger workers. According to a UN report, in 1950, there were 12 persons to support every person who was older than 65 years. However, by 2050 there would be only 4 people left to take care of each elderly person.
The above projection does not apply equally to every country, of course. The problem of rapid population aging is especially acute in Japan, where people have traditionally enjoyed generous Government social programs, old-age pensions and an excellent universal health-care system. This system is now threatened by the aging population. By the year 2050, two Japanese in every five will be a retired person, older than 65 and in need of Government subsidy, placing severe stress on the welfare system. Unlike the US and Canada, Japan follows a highly restricted immigration policy, and while it has maintained communal peace and harmony, it has also deprived the nation of infusion of young people and fresh talent.
China is the other country likely to be facing, besides gender disparity, an aging population in the future, exacerbated by its one-child policy. The rapid industrialization and urban growth in China has created vast need for younger workers to keep the high-paced economy moving. At the current rate, by the year 2050, the elderly population will grow by 300 million. At present, for every retiree, there are about 6 working people. In 2040, this ratio will plunge; there will be only 2 workers to support each retired person. This will remain the case, until the population stabilizes at a certain level.
Developing countries - India, Pakistan, Egypt - face the reverse problem: unchecked population growth. In Pakistan, today some 63 percent of the population is under 25 years of age which needs to be fed, educated, and employed. But the country lacks the resources to inadequately provide these facilities. Unfortunately, emigration remains the only realistic option for many people searching for better opportunities.
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