Pakistani Elections Are Different This Time
By Farhana Mohamed, MBA, PhD
Los Angeles, CA
The national elections scheduled for May 11 will be a historic event since for the first time in Pakistan’s history the elections are being held after a democratic government has completed its full term. The credit goes mostly to the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) for holding on and then to the major rival the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) for letting PPP to hold on. Actually, it will be the first time for the PPP that it will be contesting mostly on the basis of its performance rather than relying on sympathy votes. It would be interesting to analyze PPP’s chances to win relative to other major players.
During the last five years, the PPP Coalition government’s performance was abysmal on several fronts due to weak economy, budget deficit, energy crisis, sectarian and ethnic terrorism, cronyism, and rampant corruption. However, before the PPP tenure could be written off as a total failure, it did introduce some noteworthy legislations as well as initiated some good economic projects, albeit, mostly towards the end of its five-year term.
The PPP can be credited for running lifeline through the almost abandoned $7 billion Iran Pakistan Gas Pipeline project which was inaugurated on March 10. After India bowed out in 2009 due to cost and security issues, it took almost four years for the PPP government to negotiate a manageable price deal with Iran. According to the government sources, the US was also assured that the pipeline was a lifeline indispensable to rescue Pakistan from its draconian energy crisis. During the inauguration ceremony, the Iranian President Ahmedinejad said, “You can’t make atomic bomb with natural gas.” Over half of the gas line construction has been completed in Iran but a 485-mile stretch of the gas line still needs to be laid in Pakistan with a generous loan from Iran.
Handing over the Gwadar Port to China’ s Overseas Port Holdings Limited happened on February 18 - a $250-million project (with Pakistan to arrange for only 25% of the funding) poised to gear up development of Balochistan and providing economic opportunities and empowerment to its impoverished and disenchanted population. The contract calls for the Chinese company “to manage and develop Gwadar for 40 years.” The project was first initiated during General Musharraf era but was stalled due to some land disputes with a Singaporean company.
The Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), initiated by the PPP government in 2008, is a poverty-alleviation non-conditional cash transfer program to impoverished female head of households. According to Wikipedia, BISP is currently the largest aid program in Pakistan and its third largest budgetary allocation. While BISP is being made more transparent through the introduction of an identification process of the recipients based on a Poverty Scorecard (approved by World Bank), corruption continues to dent this otherwise notable program. By some estimates, only 50–60 percent of beneficiaries actually receive cash payments from BISP and most recipients reside in strong PPP enclaves of Sindh and Southern Punjab.
As for the government’s poor performance during its five-year tenure the economy fared extremely poorly. The national debt doubled since 2008 and each Pakistani is presently under Rs. 80,000 ($8,000) debt. Almost the entire top coterie was engulfed in corruption scandals. Energy crisis deepened as no major energy project was completed and there was a court-mandated pulling back of the rental power projects due to alleged kickbacks. While several hydro-electric projects (Diamer Bhasha and Neelum Jhelum Dams) and mega schemes were launched during the Musharraf era, PPP government’s lackluster interest and massive corruption derailed most of them due to cost overruns. Just weeks before the elections, most of the country continues to face 12 to 18 hours of load shedding daily.
According to a report in the Express Tribune, there was a huge misuse of Rs 39 billion (about $390 million) discretionary funds allocated to the two former prime ministers and parliamentarians of the PPP-coalition government. In addition, most of Rs 1.3 trillion reserved for “development schemes” was spent on paying project overhead costs.
An extremely precarious law and order situation prevailed in Pakistan, especially in KPK, Balochistan, and Sindh. Brazen suicide attacks and bombings resulted in the death of thousands of civilians, politicians, and law enforcement personnel. Karachi, which is the industrial hub of Pakistan, suffered tremendously due to incessant violence, especially ethnic and sect-based target killings of thousands of people. This greatly tarnished the PPP government’s image of being a national mainstream party.
PPP will face its toughest challenge from PML-N. PML-N chief and former premier Nawaz Sharif has strengthened the PML-N position due to his well-balanced statements avoiding personal attacks and via solid performance of PML-N government, especially in urban Punjab. PML-N Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif completed significant public-benefit projects in Punjab and was able to contain terrorist activities to a greater extent. While arson at Joseph Colony, a low-income Christian neighborhood of Lahore was a black mark, CM Sharif was praised for swiftly addressing residents’ grievances. Some of the high-profile accomplishments in Punjab include Danish Schools, Metro Bus System, Student Laptops, Punjab Technology University, among others. Most of these projects received high marks from international transparency watchdogs. However, national electricity and gas crisis greatly hindered any meaningful improvement in industrial productivity and poverty alleviation.
After fifteen years of struggle, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) has emerged as a promising political force. PTI needs to be commended for holding internal elections and awarding party tickets to 80% new candidates and fielding 35% candidates with ages less than 30. However, this rejuvenated party with a vibrant manifesto has yet to come up with a winning strategy as it has shown inflexibility in building partnerships with other political forces to overcome entrenched community loyalties, especially in rural Pakistan.
The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) remains confined to urban Sindh despite its attempts to make national inroads. As a regional ethnic party it shared power in Sindh with PPP. Despite being in power, both PPP and MQM failed to launch any meaningful developmental scheme in urban Sindh, especially in Karachi. Throughout its five-year tenure, the law and order situation greatly deteriorated in Karachi and there was no letup in terrorist attacks and daily target killings. While MQM has quite a few educated and talented middle-class leaders in its ranks, there is an overall resistance to demonstrate maturity, accepting responsibility, and rising above ethnic differences. There was a significant flip flopping on important issues and conspiracy theories were floated where MQM was portrayed to be a “victim” and a “target.” While urban seats in Sindh still remain a slam dunk for MQM, the situation may change if its performance erodes and other parties emerge with the promise of providing a better alternative.
While there is a threat of violent attacks on candidates of almost all major parties, the current election process is being greatly boosted by a strong judiciary, vibrant media, and mostly unbiased caretaker government and Election Commission of Pakistan. It’s only through some bold suo moto actions taken by the Supreme Court that violence has been somewhat curbed in Karachi and Balochistan but, unfortunately, continues to rage with full force in KPK. Many nomination papers were rejected when candidates either falsified data or were involved in corruption or criminal cases. Even if the screening of candidates and their election falls short of perfection, there is a strong likelihood that a more responsible and credible group of parliamentarians will emerge leading to a moderate and economically strong Pakistan.
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