Machiavelli Turning in His Grave
By Dr Haider Mehdi
UAE
With the general elections in Pakistan only a day away, we, this nation of 180 million people, need to ask some very basic questions and, at the same time, reflect, analyze and understand the significance of our political response (meaning voting behaviour) on May 11. Following are some of these important questions:
… Why is there a mysterious silence by the PPP leadership on the eve of the May 11 elections?
… The COAS, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, strongly and enthusiastically supported the conducting of the polls and the advancement of the democratic process in the
country in his speech at the GHQ. Why did he do so at this particular time? What
motivated the General to deliver such a strong political statement?
… Would the PML-N leadership accept the incumbent President for another five-year term as the Head of State (that is, if the PML-N wins the election and is in the position to form the government at the centre)? Why has it promised the nation a bullet train from one end of the country to the other?
… Why is it likely that PTI, a newly emerging force on Pakistan's political horizon, might have a landslide victory on May 11? Would the PTI leadership accept the incumbent President for another term of office, should PTI win? If not, why not?
Machiavelli, the early 16th century Florentine political guru known for his methods of political expediency, craftiness and duplicity, must be turning in his grave, amazed and utterly surprised at the extent of the PPP Co-Chairman's artfulness in handling "the defense of the realm" with such a remarkable and sleazy approach to possibly carve a political future for himself as President for the next five years.
The President's plan for this ‘imagined’ eventuality goes as follows - the PPP leadership understands that it has nothing to offer the Pakistani electorate based on its performance in the last five years. Then why should they indulge in massive political campaigning - it might turn out to be counterproductive.
A blogger has brilliantly summed up Zardari's political strategy as follows: "President Zardari has been emerging as one of the strongest powerbrokers in the 2013 elections in Pakistan. He has remained successful to keep himself aloof from the ongoing tussle between Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan, which is now in the critical stage and which is closing the doors for any alliance between Khan and Sharif for the formation of government in the center. Thus, whoever takes most of the seats will solely rely on PPP, which is supposed to get a maximum number of 50 or more seats in the center and a considerable majority in Sindh. The PPP's bargaining chip in the post-election scenario would possibly be unconditional support to any major party in the center in exchange for accepting Zardari for another five years as the President of Pakistan."
End of story. Triumph over Pakistan's politics of democracy by skilful exploitation of its parliamentary political system and the constitutional flaws within it. The incumbent President envisions his comeback as the constitutional Head of State. He set the stage for the support of his incumbency in the Senate years ago.
Having said that, the vital question is: Eventually, "Oonth kis karvat baithe ga?" (let's see how the wind blows). Are all of the intermediate political forces going to work in absolute harmony with Zardari's plan? I dare not think so.
Let us move forward to question 2: In the aftermath of Musharraf's debacle, General Kayani has honestly, tirelessly and diligently worked hard during the last five years to restore the armed forces' image and prestige as a vital national institution. His address at the GHQ was an exemplary speech in public diplomacy, responding to the call of the nation and supporting the forces of political change to ensure that the general elections are held at all cost. Good move. Commendable act in the national interest. Congratulations, COAS!
But the vital question, in this context, is: Will the traditional political actors and the status quo oriented forces engage with the military establishment in a meaningful, constructive and productive manner? Will they offer the military leadership enough leverage for the armed forces to continue to carry on with their exclusive constitutional role in the future? That will have to be seen. The fact of the matter is that Pakistan is on extremely shaky ground at the present.
Let us move to question 3: The PML-N quaid is on record to have said that it would be acceptable for him to take the oath of office as PM, if elected, from the incumbent President. That, indeed, in itself explains the party leadership's future political discourse and its strategic vision for the nation. They have termed it "the politics of reconciliation." However, seen from another perspective, it is clearly a "muk muka" strategy for mutual interests; is it not?
The PML-N leadership's promise of a bullet train from Khyber to Karachi is, once again, an echo of a traditional mindset, which believes that the people of Pakistan will respond positively to the symbols of grandiose projects. It seems that it is unaware that such slogans might be considered by people at large as the setting of flawed national priorities. China, the world's second most powerful nation, built a bullet train only last year - nearly seven decades after independence. But first came the people's mass mobilization - nearly full employment and literacy, huge improvements in health and educational facilities, new universities and vocational training sectors, scientific and technological innovation, massive industrialization, and global eminence in trade, diplomacy and commercial enterprises. Are Pakistani citizens, already deprived and suffering from inadequacies of all kinds, so ignorant and unaware of their fundamental requirements that they would prefer grandiose projects over their primary needs? I believe that this doctrine will not work for Pakistan anymore.
The last question: Can PTI win a landslide victory on May 11? Indeed, there are clear indications that it might. PTI advocates a political doctrine of change in the political structure and political culture in Pakistan - an echo of public sentiment in present-day Pakistan. It has demonstrated empowering the citizens by intraparty elections, and giving party tickets to youth and many new entrants in national and provincial politics. It has a straightforward stance on drone attacks, relations with the US, and the end of the war on terror. It has vividly prioritized its economic planning in tune with public demands. And, added to this, is a massive and powerful force of new youthful voters, enhancing its chances to emerge as the leading winner in the polls.
And yet, above all, Imran has surprised everyone, his friends and foes alike, with remarkable and endless determination, synergetic and limitless energy, political campaign management capabilities (imagine six public jalsas in a day) and personal charisma.
Would PTI accept the incumbent President for another term of office? No - the forces of political status quo and the forces of political change have no fundamental or mutual interests to share. End of story. Watch out on May 11. It is your turn to empower yourself. Get my drift?
Postscript: The news of Imran Khan's fall has shocked the nation. Let us all pray for his safety, health and recovery.
(The writer is UAE-based academic, policy analyst, conflict resolution expert and author of several books on Pakistan and foreign policy issues. He holds a doctorate and a master’s degree from Columbia University in New York)
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