ANP: Anatomy of the Defeat
By Dr Mohammad Taqi
Florida
The bloodiest election in Pakistan’s history is over and the country’s first democratic transfer of power ever will take place shortly. We had discussed the expected results in this space last week. The only thing to add is that the country’s polity did indeed take a decisive right turn. But no account of the elections and the post-election scenario would be complete without remembering the leaders from Benazir Bhutto to Bashir Bilour and, equally importantly, hundreds of political workers who sacrificed their lives to make this transition possible. The Awami National Party (ANP), of which Mr Bilour was a senior leader, lost over 700 members to the terrorist attacks.
The ANP came under attack 31 times during the elections campaign. It got people’s sympathy but apparently not their vote. The Pashtun nationalist party was routed in its home province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The anatomy of this defeat is both complex and tragic. It would never be easy to broach the subject that a party that lost so many lives could lose the elections so decisively. But the issue has to be addressed. The ANP has prevailed in many electoral — and constitutional — battles and has lost some too. By no means is the close of this chapter in the party’s history the end of the long and illustrious tale of the Pashtun nationalist movement, of which the ANP remains the torchbearer. However, for the recovery of the party, and the morale of its cadres and leaders, an honest, swift and across the board introspection is imperative. Her recent swipe notwithstanding, a return to Begum Nasim Wali Khan’s disastrous mismanagement of the party is not an option.
Perhaps the most cogent and frank analysis of the debacle came from the veteran ANP leader Haji Ghulam Ahmed Bilour within hours of his loss to Imran Khan of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). In his most gracious concession remarks, Haji Bilour congratulated Mr Khan and said: “People are not satisfied with the politicians in power and they want change...They have rejected us and expressed confidence in the PTI...People were not happy with the leadership and wanted change and I think what has happened was correct. Now it is up to us to think why people have rejected us.” He also said that the vote difference was such that he did not think that (outright) rigging could be blamed for the outcome. Many ANP workers, leaders and voters instantly identify three causes of their colossal electoral loss. Firstly, the party’s performance and governance, secondly, being literally unable to campaign at all due to the relentless terrorist attacks and thirdly, the Pakistani security establishment playing its usual role in cornering the secular-liberal forces. The ANP workers feel what is termed gham-o-ghussa in Urdu, i.e. dejection and anger: the sadness, obviously at the defeat, and the wrath directed primarily at the leadership and then at the establishment and its proxies.
The ANP’s Central Consultative Committee met in Islamabad under the party president Mr Asfandyar Wali Khan last week and magnanimously accepted the election results despite what was tantamount to pre-polls rigging through brute terror and reports of election-day manipulation. However, the candor needed for an honest reflection seems missing. To start off, the meeting venue could have been chosen more prudently. A common refrain against the central leadership has been their inaccessibility to not just the workers but also to, at least some, senior leaders. One cannot be insensitive to the security concerns but it seems difficult to fathom why a spot could not be secured in Charsadda or Peshawar where an overwhelming number of the party meetings have been held historically.
The party president’s departure to Islamabad after a suicide attack on him a few years ago and the subsequent video loop of his airlift played ad nauseum by the media had not gone down well with the workers. The leaders, on the other hand, have lamented that they could not reach Mr Khan by phone and had to take an appointment to see him. His father, the late Khan Abdul Wali Khan’s ready availability at his then telephone number 555 in Charsadda and an open-door policy even for the party-affiliated students, was in sharp contrast to Mr Khan’s cocooned approach. To his credit he did try to make amends via electronic media in the last few weeks of the election campaign but one cannot play catch up so close to the elections. And even in this cramming his narrative was rather fuzzy, with jibes both at the Taliban and the United States. Talk of the talks — and fight — without a clear plan for either, did little to bolster the resolve of a rattled populace.
Perhaps being cut off from the people in general and the party workers in particular can result in the leadership making serious political miscalculations including inaccurately reading or being unaware of the extremely damaging public perceptions of the alleged misappropriations and misgovernance by the party’s officials or those around them, erroneous reading of the security establishment’s designs and outright misjudging the mood on the street. In the presence of stalwarts like the late Bashir Bilour and Mian Iftikhar Hussain in the 2008 Assembly, it perhaps was not the best idea to have chosen an inexperienced Mr Amir Haider Hoti, whose primary qualification at the time was his relationship to the party chief. And it would be a patently bad idea to not hold the outgoing provincial chief executive — and his close circle — answerable for the party’s disastrous performance in the elections. The establishment indeed does tamper with the mandate and manipulate the perceptions but it cannot do so quite that blatantly today without at least some weaknesses on the part of the ANP. Also when one plays ball with the establishment, it gets to change the rules and shift goalposts midgame.
Khan Abdul Wali Khan had quit his position as the party chief after the election was stolen from him in 1990. The great man never returned to electoral politics. Asfandyar Wali Khan has several years of politics ahead of him and it would be unfair to ask the same of him. His father had set the bar very high but the least Mr Khan can do is to resign his party position and pave the way for a robust and fearless accountability. However, a stage-managed resignation like 2002 would not suffice. The buck, after all, stops with the party president.
(The writer can be reached at mazdaki@me.com and he tweets @mazdaki)
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