Will Wisdom Prevail?
By Misbah U. Azam, PhD
San Jose, CA
"The conduct represented in a recently published article does not meet the standard that should be set by a commanding general. It undermines the civilian control of the military that is at the core of our democratic system. And it erodes the trust that’s necessary for our team to work together to achieve our objectives,” President Barak Obama said in June 2010, during the Rose Garden ceremony to announce the nomination of General David Petraeus as the new Commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and to relieve General Stanley McChrystal following the publication of unflattering remarks about Vice President Joseph Biden and other administration officials that were attributed to General McChrystal and his aids in a Rolling Stone Magazine article.
Theoretically, democracy requires complete civilian control on the institutions under its Executive Branch which Article 243 of the Pakistani Constitution demands as well; however, in Third World democracies, powerful institutions like the military not only assert and influence the government's policies but also influence the bureaucracy and even local bodies and infrastructure development plans. Pakistan is one of those democracies where the military intrudes in the civilian domain and more than half of its administrative structure is run by direct military control. Even to this day, following the first-ever transition from civilian to civilian government, the pollsters are asking the common people if they prefer a democracy or dictatorship in the country; something that is more disconcerting is that around 20% of the survey supports direct military rule or some kind of a “messiah-driven” system in Pakistan!
Media reports and political analysts suggest that the current “revolution” and “tsunami” march calls by Tahirul Qadri and Imran Khan are backed and supported by the security establishment which is struggling to take control on the budget, defense and foreign policies of Pakistan, which were out-sourced to them by President Zardari. After the 2013 elections, the federal government started to assert its authority on the military, which is – in principle – the right approach and consistent with the country's constitution but in countries like Pakistan this may not be so simple, especially, when the government does not have a good governance record. Nawaz Sharif may have tried to stand up to the pressure and gambled his government in Islamabad with the hope that the military which is engaged in a full-scale operation in North Waziristan may not be able to go very far to assert its authority over the civilian rule but it seems he did a serious miscalculation once again.
Recently, Asad Omar was interviewed by a credible senior journalist and anchor person on his show and he was asked again and again the same question but other than saying “Khan Sahib will announce on 14th August” he had nothing specific to talk about.
What President Obama said in 2010 about the civilian control over the military is also part of the constitution of Pakistan but the ground realities in the country are very agonizing. It is not easy to implement Article 243 of the constitution. President Zardari was at one extreme where he gave the military complete control of foreign and defense policies and Prime Minister Sharif is at another extreme, where he wants to change the rules of the game overnight. In Turkey, after the military coup of 12th September, 1980, a new constitution was drafted by the military rulers. In a constitutional referendum on 12th September 2010, the Turkish parliament adopted a series of amendments. The Provisional Article 15 of the constitution, which used to provide protection to coup leaders, was abolished. The amendments allowed the civilian government to send leaders of the 1980 coup, who prepared and planned to topple the civilian government, to court. Although, the changes were primarily aimed at bringing the constitution into compliance with European Union standards, they had strong public support because of the performance of the civilian government. In Pakistan, before asserting its authority over the military, the civilian government must perform and deliver first. Without strong public support, a democratic government cannot take control.
I am against the handing over of Islamabad to the Army but desperate times demand desperate measures. If violence erupts on August 14, which appears very likely after the saber-rattling by Imran Khan and his party stalwarts almost every day, the PTI will blame the agencies and the media will buy what the PTI will claim.
With military in control of Islamabad, Nawaz may get short-
term political gains and he may be able to prevent Khan from going very far but this action will lead to some very long-term and disastrous consequences. The military comes in with civilian permission but it moves out as per its own will. If that happens, then Khan will have to carry the bigger blame than Nawaz Sharif. Let's all hope that wisdom will prevail -- which I am not betting on -- and both parties will move back from positions of zero-sum game.
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