Post-Sit-ins Pakistan
By Syed Kamran Hashmi
Westfield, IN
Let us suppose for a moment that the protestors succeed. That the twin sit-ins of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf(PTI) and Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) seize the New Pakistan from the claws of the old and corrupt status quo. That they galvanize enough people where the Prime Minister (PM), Mian Nawaz Sharif(MNS) has to step down realizing the only other option left for him is to go behind bars. That a ‘neutral’ commission noses out enough evidence to hold Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) responsible for the massive rigging in the last election. That a commission composed of competent people with implacable past introduces the long needed reforms in the electoral process. That the new elections are held under the new rules. That the international organizations declares them to be largely fair and free. And that Imran khan, wearing his long awaited sherwani, takes the oath as the Prime Minister of Pakistan.
It is too much to ask, isn’t it? But that is not the point. We are only trying to imagine, one possible situation in which Imran Khan emerges as the next PM of Pakistan.
In the beginning, I am sure he will take steps to implement his manifesto: there would be a buzz about tax collection, radical ideas about agriculture reforms would be tossed and some infrastructure projects would be initiated. Some improvement in the perception of the corruption would be observed and I agree the overseas Pakistanis would pour money in the economy as well.
Six months to a year in the government with Sheikh Rasheed, Shah Mehmood and Jahangir Tareen as cabinet members, along with Asad Umer in the finance department, we are not talking about a fast paced restructuring of the government organizations, are we? If you are anticipating a revolution from this team, then you must recall General Musharraf’s tenure from 2002-2007, or look at the efficiency of the PTI-led coalition in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KPK) in the last one year. More or less, this is what you will get in the Center too.
So, as the honeymoon period fades away, intra-party bickering would start. In addition, the PMLN supporters in the bureaucracy would also provide their patrons the details about the corruption stories within the government. New scandals will break, some ministers could get caught red handed and stories about a single minister overshadowing the whole cabinet would raise its head as well. Sure, there are chances that Imran Khan will force them to resign but the investigation and the propaganda would favor the opposite side. Why? Because of the media.
As of now, majority of the private channels do not support PTI or PMLN; it may look that way, but to be honest, it is a business which cares exclusively about sensationalism. They want to excite the people and keep them entertained. And how can we get them to watch the never ending but riveting talk shows? By bashing the Federal Government and talking about the scandals, their failures, weaknesses and their troubles with the establishment.
I know what is in your mind. You are thinking that Imran would defend the allegations like he always has. But remember this is the Imran as an opposition leader. I am not sure if Imran as the chief executive would have time to appear seven days a week on the television either through a personal interview, a press conference or a public meeting. He would have a bigger fish to fry then. His party in power would be the status quo, fully invested in the system which has everything at stake. It has to be wise, sensible, responsible and generous in accepting the criticism of the media. While the party in the opposition, like himself at the moment, does not have to follow any of these rules. It can be as furious and irresponsible in its statements as it can be.
Being the status quo then, trying to hang on to power, it won't be able to provide that obnoxious, untrue and rude rejoinder. In that environment, would MNS not be able to gather a few thousand people here in Islamabad to start a movement? Or do we think that MNS would not have enough support or charisma, even less than Maulana Tahir ul Qadri, to keep the protestors out for few months?
My next question is if we think that he would be as kind to Imran Khan as he was to Asif Ali Zardari? Remember, there was a pact between the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the PMLN that they would respect each other's mandate if they came into power. What lies between Imran and MNS? A huge gap of anger and animosity. The language that has been used by the PTI has not been yet responded but once in the opposition, all bets are off. Or, do we suppose that he would not be as tough on Imran Khan as the former cricketer is on him? Or MNS would concede to PTI’s mandate on moral grounds?
None of these choices are true. Notwithstanding his softer opposition to PPP-led coalition, for the trial of General Musharraf, MNS is ready to risk everything until today: his mandate, his chance to rule for another five years and even going to jail. This is what awaits Imran Khan too. The Chairman of PTI will become another General Musharraf for MNS.
In the end, how hard is it to destabilize the government in Pakistan? Easy. Imran reckoned it would take him a few hours, or a few days, not even weeks. He miscalculated on that. But, we can agree, if the leader has some public appeal, which both Imran and MNS have, and if the leader knows how to mobilize the public which Imran has learnt after this experience and MNS has known for a long time, then it should not take more than a few months. We all know that it only took six months to strip General Musharraf off his powers, although he clung to the presidency for another year before he resigned. Is Pakistan ready for another battle - one that has not yet started?
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