The D-Chowk Deadlock
By Dr Mohammad Taqi
Florida
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) and their respective leaders, Imran Khan and Allama Dr Tahirul Qadri, have been camping out in Islamabad’s D-Chowk and its vicinity for a good two weeks now. Both proclaim bringing about revolutionary changes to Pakistan’s polity without specifying what the post-revolution state would look like.
Between the two of them, these faux messiahs have made at least 50 speeches and given innumerable television interviews disputing the May 2013 general elections and demanding the resignation of elected Prime Minister (PM) Mian Nawaz Sharif. They have said not a word about the two most pressing issues that Pakistan is grappling with: the economy and terrorism. They are least concerned about the plight of the internally displaced persons of North Waziristan, the Lashkar-e-Khurasan jihadists’ threat to purge the minority sect of Zikris in Balochistan, the Haqqani terrorist network’s resurgence in Kurram and the regrouping of the Pakistani Taliban.
Imran Khan’s narrative has been particularly odious and glib. He has gone from rancorous to outright delusional. After failing to mobilize the hundreds of thousands of supporters that he had pledged ad nauseam, Imran Khan seems to be looking not for a face-saving exit out of the deadlock but a disaster to induce the PM’s resignation. His direct references to the divine and oblique ones to the not-so-divine forces are ominous. Out of options, he appears to be itching for blood to spill. Contrary to the fundamentals of political movements in Pakistan and elsewhere, Imran Khan opted for a variant of the cold start doctrine to stage a big event and irreparable damage on the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) before anyone could do much about it. Not much mobilization, preparation or thought seems to have gone into the PTI’s whole dharna (sit-in) charade, reflecting that no backup plan was in place.
A lot of it has to do with whoever has been telling Imran Khan that parliament would crumble instantly once he descended upon Islamabad but also with how the cricketer-turned-politician sees things in black and white. His ranting smacks of a concrete thought process that cannot conceive any outcome other than a victory or rout. Combined with his infinite moral certitude, Imran Khan’s zero-sum game plan is a recipe for political disaster. In the name of a political movement, Imran Khan is pushing ahead with a depoliticization process that only suits the military establishment. Former dictator General Pervez Musharraf, whose trial remains the primary bone of contention between the military and the PML-N, has come out on the side of Imran Khan and Dr Qadri. Musharraf castigated democracy and called for “change before elections”. Musharraf, a politically irrelevant personally, sure wants to go scot-free but is also echoing the views of at least those sections of the military establishment that support him.
The PML-N’s handling of the whole situation also leaves much to be desired. It seems that the PML-N that never had much experience of organizing a political movement also has difficulty in neutralizing one. The PML-N failed to distance itself from the sectarian Ahle-Sunnat-wal-Jamaat (ASWJ) holding rallies in its support against the PTI/PAT. The ASWJ is but a veneer on the banned terrorist outfit Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan. The coziness between the PML-N’s Punjab leadership and the ASWJ is rather well-known. Allowing a virulently bigoted outfit to lend support or looking the other way is extremely poor judgment on the PML-N’s part. The PML-N could have certainly done without the tragedy in Model Town, Lahore, where over a dozen PAT workers were killed in a standoff with the Punjab police. The Lahore High Court has ordered the police to register an FIR against the PML-N’s top leaders including the PM and the Chief Minister (CM) Punjab, Mian Shahbaz Sharif. The joint investigation team’s report into the episode also appears, prima facie, uncomplimentary to the PML-N’s leadership. There are already voices from within the PML-N calling for CM Shahbaz Sharif to step down on moral grounds to facilitate the inquiry into the Model Town massacre. While CM Sharif’s resignation would certainly leave the PML-N politically vulnerable, it would be the honorable thing to do. The PTI/PAT would bay for maximum political blood but the CM stepping down is what they may be content with.
I had noted last week that the powers that be are not yet done with PM Nawaz Sharif and want to chastise him. That has not changed and has perhaps gotten worse, the civil-military leadership’s photo ops notwithstanding. The current situation is untenable; something has got to give and it may just be the CM Punjab’s resignation. The PM cannot afford to continue his rather hands-off approach, as it is not just the office but the whole democratic dispensation on the chopping block. Unlike PM Sharif, the protesting duo is not invested in democracy and will be quite happy to be part of a quasi-military rule in the name of meritocracy. Mian Nawaz Sharif has to decide fast and also has to be seen to be decisive. His lieutenants have not done a very swell job of containing the marchers. Deploying cargo containers to stop the protestors was a patently bad idea and seeking an injunction from the Supreme Court (SC) to disperse them is even worse. The PAT/PTI do not have a plan B; they will likely induce a direct confrontation with the government. Use of force in Islamabad a la Model Town will have disastrous consequences for all parties but the ultimate victim of any miscalculation would almost certainly be democracy.
PM Nawaz Sharif has done well by reaching out to former President Asif Ali Zardari and other political leaders, who in turn have pledged to stand by him and democracy. The PML-N has also mobilized its own base with counter-rallies. But since his rather lackluster and evasive speech right before these protests started, the PM has not taken the people at large into confidence. He has to reach out to the people and soon. Those who have unleashed this cloak and dagger show had taken the precaution to neutralize a dissenting television channel in the weeks leading up to it. The current turmoil is an urban middle-class phenomenon in which the media is shaping perceptions favorable to PAT/PTI and impugning not just the PML-N but democracy as a form of government. From leading questions and loaded answers to parading partisan individuals as the ‘witness’ to electoral rigging, the establishment-friendly media is running the whole show. PM Nawaz Sharif has to break his silence and lead from the front if he wishes for himself and democracy to survive the deadlock in D-Chowk.
PS: the PM’s speech to parliament on Wednesday was a great initial step; he must speak to the people at large.
(The writer can be reached at mazdaki@me.com and he tweets @mazdaki)
