As China Awakens, America - and Pakistan - Should Take Note - 2
By Dr Akbar Ahmed
American University
Washington DC
It is with this background of dramatic change that we need to look at one of the boldest Chinese initiatives that could potentially alter the economic and political fortunes of entire nations and regions of the world. It is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Launched some two decades ago -- and bolstered by the additions of India and Pakistan this summer -- the SCO now has a membership of roughly half the world's population . In the last few years it has become President Xi's favored vehicle for conducting foreign policy and implementing his vision for global trade.
That vision, called the "One Belt, One Road" policy, envisages a breathtakingly ambitious program to create trade routes linking these societies with each other and with Europe. Plans are still vague, but I heard talk of a land route that will evoke the Silk Road through Central Asia, to the Middle East and on to Africa and then Europe. There is also a maritime route along the coast of China and Southeast Asia, down to India and into the Middle East and on to Europe. Pakistan is a vital link in this scheme of things.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
The Chinese talk of Pakistan as an "all-weather friend," reflecting exactly how Pakistanis see them as well. The Chinese in private will go through the list of other close allies and point to their flaws: the North Koreans are seen as erratic, the "crazy younger brother," a scholar at a dinner remarked; Burma or Myanmar has let them down and they can never fully rely on Iran, according to another scholar, as it appears "too keen to be seduced by the US." That leaves Pakistan -- and Pakistan alone, in spite of its alliances with Western nations, has stood by China through thick and thin. China has reciprocated with a mixture of emotion and real politik -- it has just signed its biggest defense deal ever according to analysts , which gives Pakistan eight first-class submarines . It is a strange and unlikely love affair.
There are, however, contradictions and tensions in the relationship. Pakistanis are an overwhelmingly Muslim nation, and Islam, because of the tense political situation in Xinjiang, is not a popular religion in secular China today. There is also a public debate about the extent to which Pakistan should be supported. Those opposed to it point out the nature of Pakistan's corrupt politics and breakdown of law and order. The broad Chinese view of Pakistan is that of a favorite younger brother constantly landing in trouble. The Chinese will express their protective affection for Pakistan and in the next breath talk of the need to ensure its stability and encourage its prosperity.
It is this relationship that explains one of President Xi's central pieces in the "One Belt, One Road" policy -- the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Xi's commitment may be gauged by the fact that he has announced some 45 billion dollars for the project. It is breathtaking in its scope and vision and could alter the fate of the beleaguered Pakistani nation. It is a plan to connect China by road and high-speed train to the port of Gwadar on the Pakistani coast and transform the sleepy little town into a major international commercial and trading hub like Dubai across the Gulf. There would be economic spin-offs as trade and commerce would grow along the corridor.
As a Pakistani American I am accustomed to the familiar Western media stereotype of Pakistan as "a nation of terrorists." Yet I was surprised to discover this was not the case in China. On the contrary, when people learned of my Pakistani background, I was treated with respect, kindness and affection. They would say, "You are family." Sometimes strangers would take selfies with me, as if I was a movie star, after they discovered my Pakistani connection. Pakistanis feeling down because of the nonsense in Western media should visit China to cheer themselves up.
In Beijing I was also privileged to be hosted by the head of the New Classic Press, which had just published the Chinese translation of my book "Journey into America: The Challenge of Islam" (2010). He said it was the first book to be translated from English by their press as the tradition is to translate books from Chinese into English. He said there had been intense debate about publishing the book as it was about Muslims, a controversial subject.
Challenges Ahead
By committing himself so publicly to these global schemes, Xi has put his neck on the line. If they succeed, he gets the credit, if they fail, he is directly to be blamed. He faces undercurrents of resentment in the massive military and civil bureaucracy already feeling the pressures of his anti-corruption drive. They may start a go-slow campaign. Xi also faces the simmering anger resulting from the growing gap between the rich elite and the vast majority.
Xi's highways will take the Chinese through ancient tribal societies in South and Central Asia and Xi needs to pay attention to the situation in Xinjiang and deal with it through wise and compassionate policies. Otherwise Central Asian tribes will sympathize with their fellow Muslims in China and unrest will grow. We saw the recent protest attacks on the Chinese -- or anyone who the Turks thought was Chinese, which included Koreans. Such clashes could further inflame the border areas and jeopardize these projects. There is also the ever-present danger of US-China relations deteriorating to a point of conflict because of some minor incident that escalates. In this situation Pakistan has a potential role to play.
The Pakistan Card
With Pakistan's good relations with both China and the US , it is ideally placed to help bring the two powers together, as it did in the past. It is sometimes forgotten that Pakistan facilitated President Nixon's historic visit to China.
The current global geopolitical alignment for the first time in history has both the US and China maintaining good relations with both India and Pakistan. While noting the unmistakable affection for Pakistan in China, I saw no overt signs of hostility towards India. On the contrary, Chinese scholars talked with optimism of the new relationship between China and India. They pointed to President Xi's visit to India and Prime Minister Modi's visit to China, which were conducted in an atmosphere of cordiality and resulted in billions of dollars in economic deals. But reality warns us that India and Pakistan are so conditioned by their hateful rivalry that they will turn any event to their favor and against their opponent. Perhaps the vast economic and political benefits that are possible in China's initiatives will influence them in this case. In spite of the numerous naysayers, those of us who dream of a peaceful South Asia taking its place on the world stage as a cultural and economic powerhouse see a ray of hope in today's situation.
Perhaps the greatest lesson that emerged in the recent US-China dialogue that I attended was the importance of face-to-face meetings with open minds and hearts and at convivial meals. Free from files and official agendas, people of different backgrounds see each other with empathy as fellow human beings.
We are still left with Napoleon's enigmatic comment. The answer to the inherent question contained in it may be tied to Xi Jinping's vision of the future of China. In either case, it is time to watch the awakening of China with interest.
(Akbar Ahmed, Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies, American University Washington DC, is author of "The Thistle and the Drone: How America's War on Terror became a Global War on Tribal Islam," Brookings, 2013)
