Electoral Perceptions
By Ikram Sehgal
Some interesting perceptions have emerged from the recent NA-246 by-elections and subsequent elections for the Local Bodies (LBs) in 42 cantonments. Giving the Rangers credit, along with Karachi police, they enforced extraordinary security arrangements. Given the MQM’s strength in organising their voters in their stronghold, the NA election result was not a surprise. In contrast, some voters belonging to the PTI (and even JI) went from one polling station to the other trying to find the right place to cast their vote.
Describing the lack of voters’ enthusiasm in this constituency in the last general elections, Nabil Gabol accepted (after leaving the MQM) that out of the 150,000 votes or so he got, most were stuffed into ballot boxes. Given the blanket security oversight, it is not surprising that the MQM ‘vote bank’ dropped drastically to a little more than 93,000 this time around. Overkill by the MQM is not necessary; their solid vote bank among the lower middle class in Karachi, Hyderabad, Mirpurkhas, Sukkur will not dissipate easily despite the different travails of charismatic leader Altaf Hussain residing in the UK. The hype created by the large election rallies organised by the PTI and JI notwithstanding, a sweeping majority for the MQM was always on the cards. The Rangers’ across the board action greatly reduced the ‘coercion factor’ and the apex committee’s no-nonsense curtailing of political influence to sway justice somewhat freeing the Karachi police to do their duty according to the dictates of the law.
The PTI getting nearly 20,000 votes in the MQM stronghold was relatively a good performance. Forced to shed their complacency, the MQM worked hard to show their actual electoral strength (93,000 and not 150,000) in a clean and fair fight. The strict security oversight and assurances notwithstanding, the voter turnout (34 percent) was less than expected. While the upper middle class voted mostly for the PTI, the fear factor kept many such possible voters away; after all, they have to keep on living in the same localities. In contrast, the other parties could not mobilise their voting potential fully. National parties, the PML-N and PPP, did not even dare field candidates as they would have lost their deposits.
I must give PTI supporters credit for having the courage to confront the MQM in its hardcore constituency despite its own internal problems in Karachi. Ali Zaidi’s appointment as Karachi’s PTI leader last December further divided the already polarised city’s organisational structure. The JI was disappointing; one expected much better than the less than 10,000 votes they got. While they could still not have won NA-246, a PTI-JI alliance would have done slightly better.
Could one get even a whiff of the political trend in the LB elections in the cantonments? There are 30 wards for 10 cantonment boards in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 116 wards make up 21 cantonment boards in Punjab. As many as 44 wards are there in Sindh for eight cantonment boards while nine wards make up the three cantonment areas in Balochistan, countrywide a grand total of 199 wards. The Ormara Cantonment Board in Balochistan is not having LB elections because of demarcation problems. With around 1.87 million registered voters in cantonments countrywide, 610 independents and 18 political parties fielding 541 candidates, approximately 635,000 (34 percent) voted for candidates who contested the polls held after a gap of 17 years. According to unofficial results, the PML-N got 68, Iindependents 55, PTI 42, MQM 19, PPP seven, JI six and the ANP two out of 199 seats.
The PML-N confirmed its popularity in their Punjab stronghold, the largest number of seats (44) (and 68 seats countrywide)! Most PTI seats were obtained in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; they got only nine in Punjab but scored heavily in second positions. The PML-N won outright in the cantonment boards of Lahore, Sialkot, Rawalpindi, Sargodha and Chaklala while the PTI got eight seats in Wah and Taxila where the PML-N got four. In Kamra, the PML-N and PTI got one seat each. Okara (five) and Bahawalpur (three) cantonments all had independent members while in Multan independents got five out of 10 seats, the PML-N managed three and the PTI got two. As the ruling party in Punjab, the PML-N will acquire allegiances of most independently elected members post-election in Punjab. Emerging as the second largest vote getter in Punjab, the PTI were not far behind the PML-N. Barring something extraordinary, will this pattern likely continue in the first-past-the-post system in the next general elections? The PTI could have done better if not faction-ridden. To quote a senior PTI figure, “The greatest threat to the PTI is from the PTI itself.
Easily gaining electoral victories in Karachi Faisal and Karachi Clifton, the MQM ran up against opposition in Karachi Clifton where the PTI got the maximum number of seats if not an outright majority. Overall, the MQM got 19 seats in the cantonment LB elections in Sindh, easily beating PPP into second place in Hyderabad.
The PML-N won only stray seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Sindh. Independents got four seats in Quetta versus one for the PML-N. The large number of independent winners (27.5 percent of the seats) underscores widespread scepticism among the electorate about the political parties. The PTI’s 24 percent of the seats were divided between Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab with a few in Karachi. The very worst showing was of the PPP, which managed only seven seats (3.5 percent) countrywide, that too mostly in Sindh, being almost wiped out in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Asif Zardari stage-managed a large rally in Lyari to shore up the party’s morale. Previously a PPP stronghold, the PPP had to bus in supporters from all over interior Sindh in their “show of force”. Rumour has it fashion model Ayyan is threatening to write a book on miserable jail conditions; she has not seen anything yet! Maybe ‘How to money-launder in one easy lesson’ would sell better. Large rallies, as was witnessed in NA-246, may give a perception of might but do not represent the real strength of parties, hardly making any impact on the polling booth. The PPP leaders do not seem to realise the enormity of their political catastrophe. Former PM Raja ‘Rental’ Pervez Ashraf claimed that after LB elections the PPP remains Pakistan’s “biggest national party”; talk about being delusional!
Not truly representative of the real leanings of voters across the country, only the complete LB elections in the provinces will show the true picture. Whoever holds Punjab holds the reins of power in Pakistan. Unfortunately for the country (and us), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh do not seem to really matter to the PML-N. Pakistan’s major problem as a federation is that there are no real national parties anymore!
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