Rising Power of PTI
By Syed Kamran Hashmi
Westfield, IN
After the bye elections in NA 122, which has handed over a victory to the PMLN candidate, Ayaz Sadiq against his rival Aleem Khan of PTI, many things can be said about the elections of 2013 with confidence. First, the mandate of PML-N stands authentic in the previous elections and its strength in the National Assembly represents its true power. Second, PTI did not have moral or legal grounds to sail into the Capital last year and the motives for the hundred and twenty days sit-in in the red zone were a lot more sinister than what was disclosed to the people. Third, not every electoral irregularity can be exaggerated and vilified as a part of planned rigging. This difference, for the peaceful future of our teetering democracy, is very important to understand, although I doubt that PTI, as long as it is losing the elections, will ever attempt to grasp the concept. However, once it wins, the Election Commission will be declared neutral, independent and ideal!
Having said that, PMLN cannot ignore the rising popularity of Tehreek e Insaf in Lahore, it’s a daunting reality that has to be reckoned with. The former cricketer, who has turned out to be much more aggressive and ruthless in the field of politics than he ever was in the cricket ground, is closing the gap at a break-neck speed for the top spot. Indeed, I will not be surprised if he surpasses the popularity of Sharif brothers in the coming years. Right now, in my opinion, the balance still tilts in favor of the PML-N. Besides, Shahbaz Sharif has got two-and-a-half additional years in Punjab to recapture its lost ground. Whether the Punjab-based Muslim League would be able to seize that opportunity or not, is still to be seen.
How much has the PML-N lost in popularity? On average, it beats its opponent by a comfortable margin of twenty-five to fifty-five thousand votes. This is what we have noticed in the last few general elections. But, not this time. The lead with which the former Speaker has defeated his opponent is just four thousand votes. Something has dramatically changed over the last few years, we have to admit. Some supporters of the party, however, would like to trivialize it as a blip. I disagree, I say to them: numbers speak louder than words!
The question is why is the PTI’s popularity rising in Lahore even with the blunders that the party commits everywhere. And why is the ratings of PLM-N dropping? Shahbaz Sharif, generally speaking, does not have a reputation of a corrupt executive, rather he is considered to be a hard working politician, a strict administrator who knows how to get the job done. Most of his projects, including the Metro Bus in Lahore, were completed on time or in some instances even before the target date. Then what lies behind the people’s disapproval?
The same question could be asked about the PPP: why was it swept out of Punjab in the last elections? People like me would not hesitate to provide a whole list of reasons, as the answer is both easy and obvious. The party, in its last tenure, had built the reputation of being corrupt to the core and either it was disinterested in the welfare of the voters or incompetent to bring an effective governance model, or both. Besides being hard working, Shahbaz Sharif’s character, on the other hand, is not marked by such stains. He is by and large clean. To some extent, we can say that the PML-N sits in Islamabad today because of the hard work of the Chief Minister of Punjab in his last term.
When you put forward the question of its declining popularity, a PML-N supporter would fall for one of these simple and easy explanations, namely: People get tired of voting for the same party again and again, they like a change. PTI claims to bring that change. Second: every government loses its popularity in the middle of a term because it cannot deliver all its promises. Let the PML-N complete its term and you will see a jump. Third: The main leadership of PML-N -the Chief Minister and the Prime Minister - did not participate in the election campaign whereas the complete echelon of the PTI zoomed in on the constituency. Try running a campaign without Imran Khan and see how many votes PTI would get. And the last: By-elections because of the small size of a constituency cannot be used as a marker to evaluate a party’s popularity. For that, we must rely upon the results of the general elections.
All these points hold some credibility, but I think the problem is much deeper and if neglected can become an existential threat to the Mulsim League.
To explain further, let me first start with the PPP. The party of Zulifqar Ali Bhutto has been wiped out from Punjab, yet it still survives in Sindh. It does that not because the party is still popular in the rural areas of the province or because the ordinary people can die for Asif Ali Zardari as they would for Benazir. It survives only because the people of Sindh do not have a Sindhi alternative. In Punjab, the story unfolds differently. People here have a local alternative, and it may be a better one, if not worse. So, unlike the PPP, if PML-N let the rug slide under its feet for too long, they may not have a place like Sindh left to hang on to. In a clever move, PTI has unleashed an impressive and aggressive campaign in the heart of Muslim League. If it wins, it could emerge as the only party of Pakistan triumphing over the PPP, MQM and the PML-N in less than ten years. A real Tsunami!
