Current Political Scene Loaded with All Kinds of Possibilities
By Salahuddin Haider
Karachi, Pakistan
While Pakistan’s political scene is beginning to be blurred, but whether it will become fragile and enter the phase of uncertainty, will depend mainly on what kind of treatment is meted out to the PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari.
In the absence of concrete facts straws in the wind often serve as the basis for assessment. Indications available on the surface so far forces one to believe that everything is not right in the country’s southern province of Sindh.
The issue of MQM’s resignations from the parliament continues to hang fire. No solution was in sight till Thursday afternoon, and while this in itself was a worrisome factor, a hurriedly arranged meeting between Governor Dr Ishratul Ebad and the PPP leader in Dubai Wednesday night further complicated the issue.
Smelling foul in the emergency call on of the 5 th Corps Commander or the message he conveyed to Ishratul Ebad or Qaim Ali Shah on Wednesday will be stretching the point too far, but none can deny that these meetings were not without purpose.
Developments following soon these meetings, simultaneously, like Qaim Ali rushing to Clifton, without loss of time, to brief Bilawal Bhutto, and the Governor, picking a flight to Dubai for an unscheduled dinner discussion with Zardari, were enough to show that urgent and very serious issues had cropped up.
What transpired during their dinner meeting in the UAE port city, which has over the years become the Geneva of the East, had not been spelled out. Speculations quickly gained ground that an earlier meeting between the army chief General Raheel Sharif, and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad, had reached definite conclusions.
The post-meeting announcement that the operation (now part of the National Action Plan) will continue irrespective of political expediencies, was plain and simple. There was too much to read in those few lines. Before that combating corruption had been made part of the NAP by a Raheel declaration during his visit to Karachi towards the end of August.
The high profile arrest of Dr Asim Hussain, raids on his hospitals in Nazimabad and Clifton, and arrests of Sui Southern Gas Company executives working under his ministry, are all indicators that instead of possible relief the noose is going to tighten around him, and later on, around Zardari and his family members.
The Corps Commander's message to the Governor and Chief Minister, and the latter’s meeting with Zardari, seem a clear pointer that Zardari is now the target. The army perhaps wants him to bring back his wealth, stacked in Swiss Banks, and or in the form of real estate, bank accounts from outside Pakistan.
Seen in the background of MQM refusing to budge from its original demand of enquiry into the party’s missing persons, extra-judicial killings of workers, and formation of a committee to oversee the functions of the apex committee in its power base, the new development assumes special importance.
Knowing Zardari, it can be said safely that he would prefer hardships rather than give up the wealth he had multiplied over the years. For that if he feels the necessity to ask the party parliamentarians to resign their seats from the assemblies, it would be nothing short of a migraine for Nawaz Sharif.
The situation can become much more dangerous if Imran Khan orders his Tehrik-i-Insaaf parliamentarians to quit their seats in the assemblies. That would automatically mean snap elections.
All these could easily, and conveniently, be dismissed as hypothetical or figment of imagination, but dramatic changes is the name of the game in politics, and Pakistan can be no exception to this general rule. The situation is fraught with all kinds of eventualities, and expecting anything any time, is always a possibility.
The assertion from Dr Farooq Sattar that the government’s non-seriousness in heeding to MQM demands had almost drawn curtains on the negotiations is ominous in nature.
The mediator in these delicate negotiations, Maulana Fazlur Rehman of JUI (F), has been reportedly trying to re-establish the contacts between the two sides. But the MQM seems firm that either its preconditions are met or its resignations be accepted without further delay.
The viewpoint of the government side comprising Ishaq Dar,and Pervez Rashid, plus a fill-in personality of Anusha Rehman, has not yet been made public. However, the prime minister seems optimistic of resolving the issue. Resignations and subsequent bye-elections would be problematic for him. If he had gone out of the way to bring back the PTI parliamentarians to their respective houses, he surely would hate to see the MQM seats vacated.
For most analysts it is a see-saw game but such a conclusion would have no relevance to reality. MQM and PTI are two different parties, without any common ground. MQM is 200 percent sure of its vote bank and can always be back in bye-elections with much greater majority than could be visualized. But the same cannot be said with certainty about Imran's party.
The big question is whether the PPP, under pressure, would agree to resign from the parliament. One of their principal leaders, Syed Khursheed Shah, has ruled out such a possibility but his remarks were, at best, off the cuff and had no punch or power. It is Zardari who will decide the issue. And it is his decision that will count ultimately. (The author is a former provincial minister and a senior journalist)
