Latest IRI Survey
By Syed Kamran Hashmi
Westfield, IN
In a recent IRI (International Republican Institute) survey, Mian Nawaz Sharif once again trumped his opposition by clinching the top spot at sixty-three percent in personal popularity ratings.
Conducted between September and December of last year, the survey places Imran Khan, the most vocal opposition leader, at the second position. Trailing far behind the Prime Minister, he only attracts thirty-nine percent of the people. Further down the list, the leadership of Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) stands at 32 percent. The Prime Minister’s job approval rating surprises his opponents too showing that more than sixty percent of the voters think positively about the performance of Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) in running the federal government, a sign of optimism in the direction of the country.
The supporters of Pakistan Tehreek e insaf (PTI) must find these observations shocking. For them, no one can beat their leader in personal popularity ratings and/or professional honesty. So any study that disproves that assertion has to be refuted, maligned and discarded as garbage. On the other hand, the government will boast about it in all the television shows, a role that would have reversed if the results had shown the PTI leader seizing the top spot. Personally, I do not think picking and choosing the surveys based on the results is a good strategy. If you quote one poll that is in your favor, then you are bound to accept the results of the next one too, if it is conducted by a reputable organization like IRI, even when it projects you a distant second. So either you accept them all or challenge each one of them.
Irrespective of our personal biases, the survey, in my opinion, highlights certain key aspects of our political climate. First, it shows that PML-N has maintained a good reputation among people even after four years in the government, a daunting task especially in the presence of an irresponsible, immature and many a time hostile media. Keep in mind, its job gets more difficult when the party is represented by most uncouth and rude supporters like Talal Chaudhry, Abid Sher Ali and Danial Aziz who damage the reputation of the party every time they come in front of the camera. Some of them are so vile and obnoxious that people shut off their television sets or switch over the channel even before these PML-N representatives have uttered a single word.
Second, it also tells me what is going to happen in the next elections; how people are going to vote and on what grounds they will choose their next representatives. I see that PML-N will either secure the same number of seats as it did in 2013 polls or gain a few more. Meanwhile, all it needs to do is to avoid a major catastrophe or a disastrous scandal. With a major catastrophe, I must here clarify that I do not mean a natural calamity or an enemy attack since neither of them can be controlled by the civilian administration, instead, I mean a dispute with the armed forces like that of 1999 that resulted in the total collapse of the system or a disagreement like that of 2014 that ended up in the form of a four-month sit-in in Islamabad.
Now let us divert our attention towards the opposition. As the anti-incumbency factor tries to pull down the ratings of the government-any government-itprovides an opportunity to the opposition to boost its popularity. What it needs to do is to stay vigilant and point out the mistakes of the administration without making it a personal vendetta, an easy task if done with patience and wisdom. That makes it one of the most rewarding jobs in the world which gets even more rewarding when the treasury is represented by people like Talal Chaudhry and Danial Aziz, as I mentioned earlier. At least that’s what I believed but the current data tells us a different story. Here, Imran Khan’s personal popularity, a sense of pride for him and his supporters, instead of climbing up has gone down. Last year, it stood at 49 percent compared to the 39 percent now. On top, the gap between him and Mian Nawaz Sharif has grown wider as well, a disappointing sign.
The question for all of us is why. What has he done, or not done, that is turning people away from him? Simply put, PML-N’s top leadership acts decently most of the times and avoids passing nasty comments while leaving the ‘dirty work’ for the second tier representatives. They understand that colloquial and substandard language can improve the television ratings but it will not help in attracting voters.
The PTI leader of course misses this point. In the hope that it will turn voters in his favor, Mr Khan himself becomes the Talal Chaudhry of PTI on television. Everyday, he comes in front of the camera and calls his political rivals absurd names, passes horrendous judgements and hurls baseless accusations at them. He has done that for almost a decade now.
After a brief period of excitement, it seems that people in general have grown bored with these tactics. Don’t you agree? You could see that fatigue both in the media and his supporters during the four-month long sit-in. With a little more clarity, you see it in the Panamagate hearings in the Supreme Court. And if there are doubts, you have the convincing IRI survey testimony.
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