Imran is Catching up with the Reality Check
By Karamatullah K. Ghori
Toronto, Canada
Governing a country as checkered and star-crossed as Pakistan was never going to be a piece of cake for Imran Khan. And since Imran had struggled hard over more than two decades to get where he’s now he must’ve known this harsh reality long before donning the leadership mantle of his ‘Naya Pakistan.’
It will be an understatement to say that the government Imran inherited was a poisoned chalice.
A succession of corrupt civilian governments—one led by that notorious Zardari and the other by a filchingNawaz Sharif—have left a mountain of daunting problems for Imran. The most daunting in the pile of problems is, no doubt, a severely damaged and hemorrhaging economy, topped with a crushing burden of foreign debt.
The two profligate predecessors of Imran borrowed twice as much money from foreign lenders in their ‘decade of decadence’ than in all the sixty years before them.
A foreign debt of $ 95 billion should be a nightmare for any incoming government. More so for a government that had never had a crack at governing a problem-plagued country like Pakistan. The only thing Imran’s PTI had to show by way of experience of governance was in only one province of Pakistan, Khyber-Pakhtoon Khwa, or KPK.
Imran entered the hall of governing Pakistan with the slogan of turning a new leaf in the way the country had been governed—or mismanaged, rather—by his plundering predecessors in power. His new Pakistan was going to not only turn things around but do so with a clear break with the past.
So, the message went out from his spokesmen that fixing a bleeding economy and stopping its hemorrhaging was going to be priority number one for Imran and his team. Coupled with this, the other message was that the new govt. will not be taking the easy way out—borrowing more from international lenders such as the notorious IMF—to tackle the immediate problem of imbalance in payment. Instead, it will explore other methods; help from friendly countries, for one. Breaking the begging bowl was a goal of the new rulers.
However, the magnitude and severity of the country’s economic woes have forced Imran to not shun the IMF route.
It must be painful and humiliating for a man as uptight as him to eat his words. He did try alternative routes. The visit to Saudi Arabia—his first foreign visit as PM—was triggered primarily to explore the friends’ avenue for succor. But our Saudi friends and trustful ‘brothers’ have their own kettle of fish to tend to. Their misadventure in Yemen is not only leading them down a blind alley—in terms of political strategy—but also proving costly even for the largest producer of crude oil in the world.
The Saudis did, though, assure Imran of their readiness to help Pakistan with a refinery at Gwadar, which many a critic of Imran see as a way to circumvent overwhelming dependence on China, in the context of the much-ballyhooed CPEC. Since the demise of the jugglers’ rule that Nawaz’ claptrap was, the chickens are coming home to roost on CPEC. The country is now awakening to the disturbing reality that CPEC is much ado about little gains for Pakistan, compared to the economic bonanza that China intends to reap from its promised investments under CPEC.
The most worrying aspect of this reality-check on CPEC is that it will add to the crushing burden of foreign debt that Imran was sworn to get rid of when he was on the campaign trail.
Going to the maligned IMF with his own begging bowl may well be a Hobson’s choice for Imran—something unavoidable, no matter how bitter and hard a pill to swallow.
But a positive take on the alarming and critical condition of the economy—the devil’s gift, so to speak—would say the bitter pill should have been swallowed much earlier by Imran. Foot-dragging by him and his economic wizards and czars have only worsened the situation. While the economy is, proverbially, on life-support, the Rupee has continued to take one hit after another, vis-à-vis its par value to the dollar.
As these lines are being written, the Pakistani rupee has plunged to its lowest value against the dollar, at something more than Rupees 133 to one US dollar. All bets are off how far the slide would go. One close confidant of Imran’s has gone on record casually predicting that it may plunge as low as Rs 140 to a dollar before the slide halts. One would hope this dire prediction doesn’t come true.
Compounding Imran’s dilemma and his economic woes is the prevailing unfriendly climate at and around IMF. The Trump administration—unpredictable and flippant on most things—seems firmly anchored in its hostility to Pakistan. America’s preponderant influence on IMF may work against Pakistan in more ways than one and render the outcome bleak.
If nothing else, the much-dreaded ‘conditionalities’ invariably attached to most, if not all, IMF bailouts could spell more trouble for Imran in his mission to heal the economy with as little suffering for the people of Pakistan as possible.
It’s a given thing that whatever bailout package is baptized for Pakistan will come with many a harsh string. Also foregone is that the fallout of IMF strings would make life not just a tad more difficult for the ordinary Pakistanis but the cost of living will become a whole lot daunting for them.
Recourse to IMF isn’t the only check with reality. As it is, Imran’s government has already upped the price of natural gas and a stiff hike in the per unit cost of electricity to consumers is next on the cards. This was part of the roadmap produced for the survey team from IMF that paid a visit to Islamabad recently. The team gave passing grades to these measures but still held that more was needed to be done.
IMF’s global panacea for suffering economies, a sort of one remedy for all ills, is to chop off all subsidies ingrained in the economic planning of most developing countries. IMF is anti-subsidies. With its upper hand, it can force a country like Pakistani begging for a bailout to agree to these ‘requirements’ as sine qua non for its aid package. Take it or leave is the mantra at IMF for those knocking at its door with a begging bowl in hand. And who doesn’t know that beggars are not choosers.
So, the fallout from the hoped-for IMF bailout is going to test Imran’s reputation and credibility as the architect of a ‘New Pakistan’ to the hilt. The bailout will, for sure, inflict hardship and more suffering on the people of Pakistan to whom he promised deliverance from the banalities of corrupt rulers.
Imran’s Finance Minister, Asad Umar, is right and astute in forewarning the people of more hardship as a necessary evil of getting rid of a rotten and festering system of corruption. But for a people who may have pinned high hopes on Imran’s promises to them, swallowing these warnings and forebodings may not be easy, to say the least.
Keeping his core constituency of mass popularity on his side is going to be Imran’s most immediate challenge. It will not be smooth sailing for him by any stretch of imagination. Add to it the naked and unabashed hostility of the former ruling elite that now finds itself on the ropes and has sworn to hit back. The recent arrest of Shahbaz Sharif on corruption charges must send alarm bells ringing throughout the cabal of cronies of the likes of Sharifs and Zardari. Their day of reckoning can’t be far if a heavy-weight like Shahbaz is already in the slammer and held accountable for all his antics and shenanigans.
Imran is unlikely to lower down the heat on the corrupt who looted Pakistan mercilessly and are responsible for its present economic misery.
With his belief in the righteousness of his mission intact and unwavering Imran may be counted upon to not compromise on his commitment to the people of Pakistan to deliver them a New Pakistan, free of corruption and on the mend, prospering.
Taking care of the corrupt and dumping them on the dung-heap of history, where they certainly belong, may be the easier part of the equation. Selling his package of more hardship and suffering as the price for eventual prosperity will be a tougher nut to crack. It will take all the savvy and guile on his part to convince the people that corruption has gone down to the bones of Pakistan. The cancer has spread to all parts of the body and it will take nothing less than massive surgery to root it out. This will be taking a huge gamble on Imran’s popularity.
It will be a hard sell, to say the very least. The people’s reaction to the bitter pill rammed down their throat will decide if Imran’s charm remains undiminished or has run out of its magic. Testing times ahead for both the people of Pakistan and their messiah.
(The writer is a former ambassador and career diplomat)
