Modi's India: A Paper Elephant?
By Riaz Haq
CA
"Deshkabahutnuksaanhuahai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's recent failures against Pakistan in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch kichhati" (56 inch chest) and talk of "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "bolinahingoli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years. The recent events are forcing India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.
Balakot and Kashmir
Indian government and media have made a series of false claims about Balakot "militant casualties" and "shooting down a Pakistani F-16". These claims have been scrutinized and debunked by independent journalists, experts and fact checkers. There is no dispute about the fact that Squadron Leader Hasan Siddiqui of Pakistan Air Force (PAF), flying a Pakistan-made JF-17 fighter, shot down Wing Commander AbhinandanVarthaman of Indian Air Force (IAF) flying a Russia made MiG 21. Abhinandan was captured by Pakistan and then released to India.
Western Narrative
The widely accepted Western narrative about India and Pakistan goes like this: "India is rapidly rising while Pakistan is collapsing". In a 2015 report from South Asia, Roger Cohen of New York Times summed it up as follows: "India is a democracy and a great power rising. Pakistan is a Muslim homeland that lost half its territory in 1971, bounced back and forth between military and nominally democratic rule, never quite clear of annihilation angst despite its nuclear weapons".
India: A Paper Elephant?
In an article titled "Paper Elephant", the Economist magazine talked about how India has ramped up its military spending and emerged as the world's largest arms importer. "Its military doctrine envisages fighting simultaneous land wars against Pakistan and China while retaining dominance in the Indian Ocean", the article said. It summed up the situation as follows: "India spends a fortune on defense and gets poor value for money".
After the India-Pakistan aerial combat over Kashmir, New York Times published a story from its South Asia correspondent headlined: "After India Loses Dogfight to Pakistan, Questions Arise about Its Military". Here are some excerpts from the report:
"Its (India's) loss of a plane last week to a country (Pakistan) whose military is about half the size and receives a quarter (a sixth according to SIPRI) of the funding is telling...India’s armed forces are in alarming shape....It was an inauspicious moment for a military the United States is banking on to help keep an expanding China in check".
Summary:India's international perception as a "great power rising" has suffered a serious setback as a result of its recent military failures against Pakistan which spends only a sixth of India's military budget and ranks 17th in the world, far below India ranking 4th by globalfirepower.com. "Deshkabahutnuksaanhuahai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's recent failures in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch kichhati" (56 inch chest) and talk of "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years. The recent events are forcing India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.
Here's Indian Prime Minister Modi making excuses for his military's failures:
https://youtu.be/QIt0EAAr3PU
(RiazHaq is a Silicon Valley-based Pakistani-American analyst and writer. He blogs at www.riazhaq.com)
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