Will Coronavirus Pandemic End in the Summer Months of May and June?
By Riaz Haq
CA
A study by researchers at a Singapore university predicts that the current coronavirus pandemic will end in the months of May and June. Specifically, the researchers forecast that 97% of the pandemic will end around May 11 in the United States and June 8 in Pakistan.
Singapore Pandemic Model
The authors of the Singapore study argue that, like other past pandemics, the current covid19 pandemic will follow a bell curve, essentially "a life cycle pattern from the outbreak to the acceleration phase, inflection point, de-acceleration phase and eventual stop or ending".
Here's an excerpt from the Singapore paper published by Jianxi Luo:
"Such a life cycle is the result of the adaptive and countering behaviors of agents including individuals (avoiding physical contact) and governments (locking down cities) as well as the natural limitations of the ecosystem. However, the pandemic life cycles vary by countries, and different countries might be in different phases of the life cycles at a specific point in time. For instance, on April 21, in Singapore, Prime Minister Hsien-Loong Lee announced the extension of circuit breaker to June 1 in response to the spikes of COVID-19 cases, on the same day when Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced Italy’s plan to reopen from May 4. Ideally such decisions and planning can be rationalized by well knowing where our own country (together with the world as a whole) is in its own pandemic life cycle, when the turning point is coming if it has yet come, and most importantly when the pandemic will end. The basis for such actionable estimation is the pandemic’s life cycle."
The study says that the cases in Pakistan are at or very near their peak while those in the United States are past their peak already. The model shows the US peak being more than 30 times higher than the peak in Pakistan.
There are many theories explaining why Pakistan and the rest of South Asia have fared much better than America and Europe. While it is true that the testing rates in South Asia are low compared to America and Europe, the percentages of people testing positive in South Asia are also low. Here are the numbers: India 4.36%, Bangladesh 11.43% and Pakistan 8.26%, Italy 12.69, US 19.55, France 34.09.
The explanations offered for low coronavirus infection rates in South Asia include more sunshine, higher temperature and humidity, younger demographics, universal BCG vaccinations, etc.
US Government Sunlight Study
Preliminary results of a US Government study reveal that the sunlight quickly destroys COVID19, the novel coronavirus. The study found that the risk of “transmission from surfaces outdoors is lower during daylight” and under higher temperature and humidity conditions, according to Yahoo News. This latest work reinforces the conclusions of "Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?", a recent paper written jointly by Pakistani and Indian researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Ultraviolet (UV) light, a component of sunlight, has long been known to be an effective disinfectant.
BCG Vaccination
A New York Institute of Technology study using data from 178 countries has concluded that both the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 are significantly lower in countries with BCG vaccination programs against TB.
Scientists do not have data yet on the effect of BCG vaccination on coronaviruses in general or SARS-CoV-2 in particular, according to Reuters. There are also many BCG vaccines, with different capacities to protect against various TB strains. Scientists need to determine which BCG vaccines might have the best ability to boost the innate immune system to fight COVID-19. Scientists say it will take several months to get results from ongoing trials testing the BCG vaccine against COVID-19.
Heat and Humidity
A paper titled "Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?" written by Dr. Qasim Bukhari and Dr Yusuf Jamil explains that "several countries between 30N and 30S such as Australia, UAE, Qatar, Singapore, Bahrain, Qatar and Taiwan have performed extensive testing per capita and the number of positive 2019-nCoV cases per capita are lower in these countries compared to several European countries and the US". "The relation between the number of 2019-nCoV cases and temperature and absolute humidity observed here is strong however, the underlying reasoning behind
this relationship is still not clear", they write.
(Riaz Haq is a Silicon Valley-based Pakistani-American analyst and writer. He blogs at www.riazhaq.com)
