Pakistan: Coronavirus, Lives and Livelihoods
By Riaz Haq
CA
Coronavirus infection rates and deaths in Pakistan are among the lowest in the world while the continuing lockdown is causing enormous damage to the nation's economy and livelihood, according to government data.
Health ministry data shows that fewer than a thousand lives have been lost to the disease in the country since the start of COVID19 infections more than two months ago. Meanwhile, millions of people in manufacturing, retail and the unorganized sectors are unemployed or underemployed. All of this is happening during Ramzan and Eid periods that account for bulk of retail sales in the Muslim-majority country of 220 million.
Pakistanis do not necessarily face the same level of risk from coronavirus as people living in America and Europe do. The explanations offered for low coronavirus infection and death rates in South Asia include more sunshine, higher temperature and humidity, younger demographics, universal BCG vaccinations, etc. Yale researchers have argued in a recently published paper to consider universal mask adoption and increased hygiene measures as an alternative to complete lockdown.
Pakistan Manufacturing Data
The March figures released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics confirm a precipitous drop of 22.95 in large scale manufacturing. This reflects a halt in production in just the last one week of March 2020. April 2020 figures are almost certain to be a lot worse due to a complete halt in production amid lockdown. This is spelling disaster for millions of employees and households linked to these industries. Government handouts cannot replace household incomes generated from these industries.
While food production held up well in March, manufacturing of durables like air-conditioners, refrigerators, and deep freezers has plummeted. For example, production of refrigerators fell 34% from 86,107 in March 2019 to 56,449 in March 2020. The number of television sets produced in March 2020 declined 34% to 19,790 from 30,788 in the same month last year.
Coronavirus Infections and Deaths
As of May 16, Pakistan has 38,755 cases and 834 deaths. These figures are among the lowest in the world. There are many theories explaining why Pakistan and the rest of South Asia have fared much better than America and Europe. While it is true that the testing rates in South Asia are low compared to America and Europe, the percentages of people testing positive and fatality rates in South Asia are also low. The explanations offered for low coronavirus infection and death rates in South Asia include more sunshine, higher temperature and humidity, younger demographics, universal BCG vaccinations, etc.
Social Distancing Cost-Benefit Analysis
In a recently published paper tiled "The Benefits and Costs of Social Distancing in Rich and PoorCountries", Yale researchers support universal mask adoption and increased hygiene measures as alternatives to social distancing and complete lockdown.
Zachary Barnett-Howell and Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak of Yale University argue that "social distancing policies are estimated to be less effective in poor countries with younger populations less susceptible to COVID-19, and more limited healthcare systems, which were overwhelmed before the pandemic". Here's an excerpt from the Yale paper:
"Poorer people are less willing to make...economic sacrifices. They place relatively greater value on their livelihood concerns compared to contracting COVID-19. Not only are the epidemiological and economic benefits of social distancing much smaller in poorer countries, such policies may exact a heavy toll on the poorest and most vulnerable. Workers in the informal sector lack the resources and social protections to isolate themselves and sacrifice economic opportunities until the virus passes. By limiting their ability to earn a living, social distancing can lead to an increase in hunger, deprivation, and related mortality and morbidity. Rather than a blanket adoption of social distancing measures, we advocate for the exploration of alternative harm-reduction strategies, including universal mask adoption and increased hygiene measures."
Summary:While coronavirus infections and death rates in Pakistan are among the lowest, the nation's economy and livelihoods are in serious jeopardy. With or without coronavirus pandemic, we take risks everyday when we leave our homes to go to work or school, theaters or playground, or shopping. Risks we face range from street crimes and road accidents to lightning strikes. We need to make similar assessments of risks from diseases which vary from place to place. Pakistanis do not necessarily face the same level of risk from coronavirus as people living in America and Europe do. The explanations offered for low coronavirus infection and death rates in South Asia include more sunshine, higher temperature and humidity, younger demographics, universal BCG vaccinations, etc. There is a need to weigh the risk of catching coronavirus against the loss of livelihoods in places like Pakistan. Yale researchers have argued in a recently published paper to consider universal mask adoption and increased hygiene measures as an alternative to complete lockdown.
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