A New Foreign Policy Challenge for Pakistan?
By Karamatullah K. Ghori
Toronto, Canada

 

When a glacier melts, its torrents can rush down in many a direction. Pakistan, at this juncture in its foreign relations, especially with its immediate and near neighbours, is precisely at such a crossroads!

With the melting of ice with India—beginning with last February 15 accord on keeping the LoC in Kashmir fire-free, and culminating in the exchange of reasonably pleasant messages between Modi and Imran Khan (IK)—Pakistan suddenly finds some peace of mind to focus on other foreign policy issues, opportunities and challenges.

The signing in Tehran of a 25-year Pact of Co-operation between Iran and China presents Pakistan with both a new vista and, at the same time, a challenge in its immediate neighbourhood.

Nothing should be more welcome to Pakistan than the gamut of its already fruit-bearing co-operation, under CPEC, with China expanding its wings to also take Iran under them. This scribe has long been arguing and articulating for bringing Iran into the fold of CPEC. Not only would this move add more quantum and substance to China-Pakistan co-operation but also yield the strategic benefit of securing Pakistan’s western frontier with Iran. Needless to add that an extra dividend would be to decrease Indian stakes in Iran and make India a less attractive partner for Iran.

However, what should have been glad tidings emanating from Tehran—that Pakistan’s most steadfast friend and partner-in-progress, China has vowed to invest a whopping 400 billion dollars in Iran, next door to Pakistan, over the next 20 years—its sweetness has been soured by a totally unrelated development.

There’s still a fog of speculation wo really said it—Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, or Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif of Iran or the Speaker of the Iranian Majlis, Hussain Larejani—but what was said seems to have rudely hurt Pakistani sensitivities.

It has been reported that after the signing of this historical accord in Tehran, one of the three above-mentioned leaders remarked—obviously as a compliment to the resilience of Iranian foreign policy—that Iran didn’t change its policy over a phone call!

To sensitive, or ultra-chauvinistic, Pakistani minds this was an uncalled for—and undiplomatic—dig at the last Pakistani Bonaparte, General Pervez Musharraf. It alluded to that historic phone call to Musharraf from the then US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, in the wake of George W. Bush’s quixotic and knee-jerk call to arms following the cataclysmic 9/11 attack on US.

Powell, a soldier like our commando-general Musharraf, talks of this call in his own memoirs. According to him, it was a straight-talk from one soldier to another. Powell was delivering his president’s message, “you are either with us or against us” to Musharraf. He expected six initiatives from his Pakistani interlocutors. In his own words, he expected Musharraf to ask for time to cogitate over his demands. Again, in his own words, he was quite prepared to be contented if Musharraf acceded to three out of the six demands. But, in his own words, again, he was pleasantly astonished when the commando-general—who was used to boasting that he was afraid of none—instantly, then and there, accepted all of his six demands without any conditions.

This was the ‘made-over-a-phone-call’ policy that was referred to by whoever in Tehran on the heels of the Sino-Iranian Co-operation Pact.

On the face of it, it was in poor taste for this quip to come from the lips of a Chinese or Iranian leader. The Chinese are Pakistan’s most trusted friend. Iran, a neighbour with whom Pakistan shares a lot of history—centuries of historical interaction and mixing of races, in fact—with Iran, besides a common border. That’s why this undiplomatic jab has hurt the Pakistani sensitives so much.

But, on the other hand, we, Pakistanis with ruffled feathers, ought to have a sense of shame, too, over Musharraf’s cowardly surrender of Pakistan’s core national interests, that too in such an obscene and shameless manner. He did it only to get recognition from the US for his putsch against an elected government. So, while a sense of hurt could be justified on the grounds that one doesn’t expect to be rubbed, so rudely, on the wrong side from a friend, Pakistanis shouldn’t overlook Musharraf’s colossal blunder that will remain a permanent stigma on the dignity of Pakistan.

That said, Pakistan should look at this historic accord between two friends of its as a win-win development, as far as its own national interest is concerned. It melds China, comprehensively, into the core economic and strategic interests of Iran and thus lifts a heavy stone of concern from Pakistan’s chest on its western front. China sidling into Iran’s vital geo-strategic and geo-economic landscape should check and whittle down India’s expansionist designs to carve a niche in Iran against Pakistan. To Modi’s avowed policy plank of isolating Pakistan in the region, the budding Sino-Iranian cooperation should sound like a death-knell.

Against this unfolding perspective, Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad Bin Salman’s (MBS) sudden invitation to IK to visit him in Riyadh may sow the seeds of a foreign policy challenge to Pakistani planners.

The Saudi de-facto monarch’s invite to IK may, otherwise, seem innocuous. After all, Saudi-Pakistan relations have a long history of brotherly co-operations in myriad vistas, including Pakistan’s oft-repeated and iron-clad assurances to the Kingdom that it will always stand by it and safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity. MBS’ invite to IK came in response to a very warm message of felicitations from him on MBS’ latest initiative for a ‘Green Revolution’ in the Kingdom. MBS has pledged to plant 10 billion trees in the Kingdom, borrowing a leaf from IK’s book. Pakistan, under IK, has already planted a billion trees and IK has pledged to raise the stakes up to 10 billion trees.

On the face of it, IK’s impending safari to Saudi would be, mainly, in the context of ‘green’ co-operation between two brotherly states. MBS may learn a tip or two from a veteran IK in his ‘greening’ campaign.

However, pundits, used to reading between the lines, shouldn’t be blamed for searching for what the naked eye may not see. The Saudis have long had this dubious reputation of not being averse to acting as Washington’s Trojan horse. The US animus to CPEC is well-known. So is Saudi aversion and hatred of Iran an established factor of the Kingdom’s policy.

Biden has started off on a footing of hostility and confrontation with both China and Russia. Washington has a lot at stake with Beijing; it’s a tussle between a reigning super-power and an emerging and resolute contender for the title of a super-power.

The recent meeting in Alaska between the top diplomats of China and US has added fuel to the fire. Washington, along with its western partners, has come out with guns blazing against China on its alleged violations of the rights of its Ouighur Muslim minority in Xinjiang, next door to Pakistan. China, in return, has minced no words while holding a mirror of history to the western faces, and reminding the western imperialists of their historic crimes against the hapless peoples in their erstwhile colonies, all over the world.

So, this Iran-China budding co-operation is bad news to Biden’s swashbuckling moves against China. Washington’s disquiet could compound if Pakistan gets more deeply and keenly involved in the expanding prospects of Sino-Iranian co-operation.

MBS wouldn’t be averse to try his hand—as a favour to Biden with whom his personal stock has taken a hit from the rosy days of Trump—at cautioning IK to hold his horses, as far as this emerging Sino-Iranian economic camaraderie is concerned.

That’s where it becomes a challenge for Pakistan. To a very large extent, we have, thus far, balanced our feet, adroitly, between our relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia. The stakes, in the impending scenario, may be higher. But, then, the tough, proverbially, gets going when a situation is tough or daunting. This may well be one such moment for Pakistan. K_K_ghori@hotmail.com

(The author is a former ambassador and career diplomat)