A Calculated Gamble or another Classical Somersault?
By Karamatullah K. Ghori
Toronto, Canada

 

On the face of it, it looks like another class U-turn of Imran Khan (IK) for which the self-anointed ‘architect’ of a ‘New Pakistan’ is so notoriously infamous.

Common sense says you don’t negotiate with those whom you may have proclaimed, from your roof-top only a day or two ago, as terrorists and proscribed them from pursuing their agenda of disruption and wilful violation of the law of the land.

But IK’s government has done precisely that. First, it banned the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) under the country’s Anti-Terrorism Law because the outfit was deemed to be openly, and provocatively challenging the writ of the state. The government’s bold action was hailed by all those to whom Pakistan’s harmony as a democratic polity is sacrosanct.

But, then, literally within hours of standing firm, and tall, IK’s maverick government sent out its Interior Minister, Sheikh Rashid, and Religious Minister, Noorul Haq Qadri, to negotiate with the top echelons of the banned TLP, including its head-honcho, Saad Rizvi.

It strains one’s imagination to ponder over what prompted IK and his team to first wield the stout end of the stick against ‘terrorists’ but, then, have a change of heart and offer a carrot to the beast to appease him?

Negotiating with anyone—Tom, Dick or Harry—immediately raises them to the level of an equal. But does it make any sense for a government, any government, to bestow that status to an outfit like TLP? Forget about the home front. The people of Pakistan—98 percent of them have hardly any time to think of these foibles of the government because their full-time priority is to ensure two square meals a day for their wards and families. But what message is going out, intently or inadvertently, to the outside world?

The PM himself took the shroud off that speculation, or conjecture, in a long, rambling, address to the nation that was intended—as sort of a curtain-raiser—to prepare the people for his gamble to go into ‘talks’ with the TLP.

IK said that his and TLP’s ‘objective’ was the same but their methods to go about it were different. He was in sync with the TLP insofar as taking exception to Western Islamophobia was concerned. The two—IK and TLP aficionados—equally abhorred the French government’s provocative stance of giving a free rein, in the name of freedom of expression, to those disrespecting the Holy Prophet of Islam (PBUH) and drawing his caricatures.

So, having explained this logic to the nation, he asked his Interior Minister, Sheikh Rashid, to become his emissary to explain to the die-hard cadres of TLP, threatening to not cease their violent agitation, what he intended to do to mollify their sense of hurt. The message from IK was that he was on the same page with the TLP as far as their philosophy of protest was concerned; they differed only on its methodology!

The choice of Sheikh Rashid to be IK’s emissary itself has a plausible, though ironic, logic. It’s the same Sheikh Rashid, who had vociferously spoken out in favour of TLP’s agitation, in November 2017, when the outfit staged one of its routine sieges of Islamabad. Of course, IK was then in the vanguard of opposition to PML-N and its thieving regime.

Those aware of Sheikh Rashid’s chequered past would tell you that he owes his longevity in politics because of his connections with the power-that-be, in close proximity of Islamabad. His roots to GHQ go back to his student-activist phase; he was infamous as sheltering under the wings of the all-powerful ‘establishment.’

Which may give a clue to IK also being influenced in taking recourse to this strange gambit because of coaxing—if not prompting—from the power barons in the military-intelligence establishment. After all, it’s common knowledge in Pakistan that there has been a soft corner for radical or ‘political’ Islam in the heart of Pakistan’s military establishment for decades. The flirtation between the brass and brats of TLP is a matter of documentation.

The fruit of deliberations between IK’s emissaries and TLP cadres is the government’s decision to take the principal ‘demand’ of the TLP outfit, to expel the French ambassador from Pakistan, before the National Assembly. The ruling party has moved with alacrity to table a resolution to that effect in NA and the Speaker has decided to hand it over to a ‘select’ committee to deliberate the matter.

To be charitable to IK, he may have taken a calculated gamble in the process. There are clues in his address to the nation that he’s counting on his party to not endorse the demand to expel the ambassador of a founding member of EU. PTI members and cadres should be expected to be conscious of the massive negative fallout on Pakistan if this hare-brained idea were to succeed. Political pundits have already sounded the alarm, loud and clear. The backlash against Pakistan could, simply put, be devastating.

IK may have also reasoned that he could take this calculated risk, counting on the opposition parties helping him out by default. PPP has already buried its head under the sand, on the excuse that it wasn’t given enough notice to ponder over the issue.

PML-N is in disarray and on the back foot because of the blowback from the grisly episode at the Lahore High Court regarding Shehbaz Sharif’s bail application. Beyond cheap theatrics, its leaders are incapable of causing any serious unease, or damage, to the government.

So, let’s give IK the benefit of doubt. To the naked eye, he may have given yet another classical performance of his notorious habit of taking one step forward and two steps backward, in a trice. But, in the end, the gamble may pay him off, and Pakistan, handsomely and to everyone’s satisfaction. He would emerge from the episode with both a moral and tactical triumph under his belt. He will have eaten his cake and have it too—something his friends and admirers have been wishing for, for long! - K_K_ghori@hotmail.com

(The author is a former ambassador and career diplomat)