What Role Would Pakistan Play in Afghanistan?
By Rahil Siddiqi
Pasadena, CA

 

It's no secret that, if given a chance, nations have a tendency to interfere in the affairs of other nations. Some do it to expand their spheres of influence. Others, to safeguard their own sovereignty. Sometimes, they are driven by both motivations to act.

The United States exits one of its most costly wars as of late as President Biden announced a troop withdrawal from Afghanistan to complete by the ceremonious date of September 11th. With the global superpower out of the fold, many analysts shift their focus to one of the most important influences in Afghanistan, the neighboring Islamic Republic of Pakistan. To understand what type of role Pakistan could play in Afghanistan a look into the past is imperative.

In 1947, Pakistan gained independence from the British Empire. Pakistan is an acronym, with P standing for the Punjab, A for Afghania (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), K for Kashmir, and -istan for Balochistan. The A's meaning in Pakistan may raise some eyebrows considering that the neighboring region of Afghanistan existed. Afghania within Pakistan was inherited along the border of the Durand Line, the border between the then British Raj and Afghanistan. It was carved out when the former ruler of Afghanistan, Amir Yaqub Khan, sold what would now be within Pakistan to the British Raj. What is important to note is that a majority of Afghanistan and those within Pakistani Afghania are of the Pashtun ethnicity. Disillusioned by the practical betrayal of the Afghan states in the past, the Pashtuns in the British Raj during the 40s decided to vote overwhelmingly for Quaid i Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah's vision of an independent Muslim state of Pakistan to be carved out of the Raj.

Since then, Afghanistan has seen scores of leaders label themselves as "Pashtun nationalists''. There have been two occasions of an Afghan invasion into Pakistan to form "Pashtunistan" (Pashtun nationalist state), one in the 50s and another in the 60s; both were repelled by the Pakistan Army and local Pashtun allies. Despite this, Pakistan has remained constantly worried of the aggressive nature of its neighbor. The biggest fear of the Pakistani state is to be surrounded by two allied enemies of Afghanistan and India, which could make a difficult two-front conflict for its military. Since then, it's been a predominant goal of the Pakistani state to pursue what is known as Strategic Depth, a plan to ensure that Afghanistan does not fall into a pro-Indian/anti-Pakistani government.

In the 80s, Pakistan played a pivotal role in repelling the Soviet invasion into Afghanistan, as it acted as a sort of a middleman between the United States and the Mujahideen, as the US gave weapons. After a 10-year conflict, the Soviets were eventually forced to retreat. The conflict in Afghanistan did not end as various militias and tribal warlords soon began fighting one another with the US weapons in the hope of getting power in Afghanistan. Pakistan's fear at that time would be yet another Pashtun nationalist Afghan government. Seeking alternatives, Pakistan discovered a fledgling Islamist movement known as the Taliban, founded by Mullah Mohammad Omar. The group claimed to "install Islamic rule in Afghanistan, and rid Afghanistan of tribal warlords and criminals." The group appeared as a dream scenario for Pakistan: although the Taliban were Pashtun in ethnicity, the militant group was Islamist instead of being ethnically nationalist, and thus was not expected to threaten Pakistan's borders and to ally with Pakistan's Islamic government. The Taliban, strengthened by Pakistani support and mass recruitment, would soon begin their takeover of Afghanistan. Analysts noted the Taliban were seen favorably at that time, as they stamped out corruption and curbed lawlessness. By 1996, Kabul fell to the Taliban and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was proclaimed. The Taliban government was not the success story the Pakistani state had envisioned, as resistance in the north to Taliban rule as well as a fracturing of Taliban over issues like how Sharia law should be implemented, and cooperating with other groups like Al Qaeda soon surfaced in Kabul. Eventually, the latter issue proved detrimental, as 9/11 was committed by Osama Bin Laden's Al Qaeda, which led to the United States once again returning to Afghanistan. Seeing the Taliban actively harboring Al Qaeda the United States the US viewed it as an arch enemy, and its allies to be enemies as well. Thus, the United States pressured Pakistan into publicly disavowing all support for the Taliban and joining its war on terror. Some sources claim Pakistan maintained ties with the Taliban throughout the war on terror, a claim the Pakistani government denies. Within a few months, the Islamic Emirate collapsed and the Taliban were in full retreat. And as we're aware today, during the 20 years of conflict, the Taliban fought to oust the outside forces.

And this brings us to the present times. As one can observe, Pakistan and Afghanistan have a long history of being involved in one another's affairs. Now that we've obtained an understanding of the past, how will Pakistan play a role in the future of Afghanistan? Now that the US is withdrawing and some claiming the Taliban have moderated in their ideology, a consensus among some circles is that Pakistani support for the Taliban will return in their second bid to regain absolute control in Afghanistan. The Taliban have already begun taking large chunks of territory in Afghanistan, and researchers predict a fall of Kabul within 6 months if the Taliban wished to do so.

The best way to see Pakistan's stance on Afghanistan is through its leader. Pakistan's Imran Khan has stated that "Whoever represents the people of Afghanistan, we will deal with them." Khan has been controversial in the global community due to his known stance of being against Pakistan's involvement in the war on terror as it was far too costly for Pakistan with little benefit. Khan has shifted Pakistan's vision from a more militarist view to geoeconomics, hoping to restore Pakistan's "tiger economy" from the 60s. The Prime Minister has also repeatedly expressed that continued conflict would bring no resolution of Afghan problems, and that a political solution would have a better chance of doing so. A resolution already being discussed in peace talks includes a coalition government in which the Taliban are treated as some sort of a political party within the Afghan government. This also serves Pakistan's interests: the Taliban could block any Afghan government turning pro-Indian/anti-Pakistani, as well as being not in full power to stage a possible repeat of the Islamic Emirate.

All in all, these next few months will prove critical in the future of the "heart of Central Asia." If the past can be any guide the role of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan will be important in deciding the future of the troubled neighborly nation.