The 'Bold Six' of the Middle East
By Amjad Noorani
CA

 

For years, 'Peace, Trade, and Tourism' (PTT) has amounted to meaningless political rhetoric between once-hostile or ideologically different nations. But what has happened recently in the Middle East may give hope for PTT relations between India and Pakistan.

The dynamic between hostile countries is seldom reasonable from the perspective of an average citizen. Perceptions of invincibility drive the behavior and actions of nations or a ‘bloc’ of loosely unified countries, often unwisely and for ages, adding to the frustrations and suffering of people in the region. But is it possible that political and ideological issues can be set aside, to be dealt with separately, perhaps in a future agenda—unrelated to PTT? I would like to believe that it is possible.

Wars and damaging conflicts can ultimately result in lasting peace and trade agreements, usually on terms dictated by the dominant country. Israel achieved peace and full diplomatic relations with two Arab neighbors, Egypt (43 years ago, in 1979) and Jordan (37 years ago). More recently in 2020, Israel signed agreements establishing diplomatic relations with four Arab countries—Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, and Morocco. Most striking is the fact that these four countries have not been directly at war with Israel, but they have had ideological differences with regard to a two-state existence supporting the lawful rights and dignity of the people of Palestine. This would not have happened if the hardline pre-condition was a solution to the Palestine situation, which must ultimately be resolved.

The recent accords normalized ties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. The most intense fervor and nervousness was created by the biggest name in the mix, the UAE. The suspense was what the reaction might be from the Saudis and others. But Israel is still there, and the Arab-Muslim world has not collapsed either. These four countries boldly and sensibly accepted Israel as a state worthy of bilateral trade and good relations, and they deserve to reap the economic and peace rewards.

Since the accords (known as the Abraham Accords), all signatories stand to benefit richly, especially the UAE which projects economic activity with Israel could be as much as a trillion dollars in trade over the next decade. The astronomical figure was announced by UAE Minister of Economy Abdulla bin Touq Al-Marri on the first anniversary of the accords. The two countries have already agreed on over $600 million in trade for the first half of 2021 in areas like food, agriculture, healthcare, aviation, water and energy, as well as dozens of future deals. The UAE minister added that “... we are moving into so many areas of economic opportunities”. This recent report further elaborates on how trade between Israel and the Arab states has seen a sharp increase since the peace deals.
Brokered by the US, the first anniversary of the accords was celebrated as a diplomatic success and presented an opportunity for the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to remark that "... despite COVID-19, more than 130,000 Israelis visited the UAE just in the first four and a half months after the Accords were signed. There is a hunger to learn about each other’s cultures, to see new sights, to try new foods, forge new friendships—all experiences that have been impossible for so long and for so many, and now they’re making up for lost time. [..] we will encourage more countries to follow the lead of the Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco [and Sudan]. We want to widen the circle of peaceful diplomacy because it’s in the interests of countries across the region and around the world for Israel to be treated like any other country. Normalization leads to greater stability, more cooperation, mutual progress – all things the region and the world need very badly right now. [..] .. the primary beneficiaries of normalization [are] people across borders whose lives will be improved by these new possibilities. [..] We’re seeing new economic opportunities, innovations, collaborations. The United Arab Emirates has pursued significant investments in strategic sectors in Israel, including energy, medicine, technology, healthcare. Private firms are working together on everything from desalinization to stem cell therapies”.

Secretary Blinken expressed hope that the accords will be a model for other countries to follow and that Kosovo has also established ties with Israel earlier this year. “The deepening diplomatic relationships also provide a foundation to tackle challenges that demand cooperation among nations, like reducing regional tensions, combating terrorism, mitigating the impact of the climate crisis”, he added.

The UAE seemed to know what it was doing, and that noisemakers could not do much about it. The pre-accord restrictions had little or no effect on Israel, its politics, or its immediate survival. But these self-imposed restraints had a huge impact on the economic, trade, diplomatic, cultural, and other restrictions on countries in the region. The real winners are the people of the six bold-and-sensible countries—Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco—and, of course, the people of Israel. The fears that Saudi Arabia would be upset were baseless. Nothing happened.
Circling back to the context of Pakistan-India relations, the issue of Kashmir remains the stumbling block. The aim of this writing and these thoughts is not to propose a solution to the Kashmir issue. That will come in due time, and sooner the better. The purpose here is to suggest that Pakistan and India follow in the footsteps of Israel and the Bold Six. Let's get on with peaceful trade and tourism (PTT), allow the people on both sides to look at each other, peacefully share the foods, music, and sights. That in itself will help to soften the political and military stance on both sides and hopefully lead to the stabilization of relationships with both countries and the region of Kashmir seeing the economic dividends of Peace, Trade and Tourism. It can be a game-changing step leading to compromise and resolution to the Kashmir issue.

(Amjad Noorani is an activist for Peace and education reform in Pakistan. He is the Lead Author of  Agents of Change )